CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Moldova

Standoff continued with separatist Transdniestrian region after latter closed local Moldovan schools teaching in Latin script. Sides traded accusations and sanctions, with Chisinau restricting Transdniestrian exports and Tiraspol retaliating with brief blockade of rail links to Moldova. Siege of Benderi orphanage by Transdniestrian security forces continued.

North Macedonia

Controversial decentralisation laws granting greater rights to ethnic Albanian minority narrowly passed 11 August, with 61 votes in 120-seat parliament. Decentralisation deal, which represents final phase of 2001 Ohrid accord (and is crucial to Macedonia’s EU membership bid), has polarised opinion and provoked riots. World Macedonian Congress (WMC) submitted approx. 180,000 signatures to force referendum on decentralisation plans. Parliament to set date for plebiscite – WMC calling for late November poll. Town of Struga, where opposition to plan is strongest, threatened to secede from Macedonia should decentralisation plans go ahead. Former interior minister Ljube Boskovski, suspected of murder of 7 migrants in 2001, arrested in Croatia 31 August, to be tried in Croatia.

Northern Ireland (UK)

Negotiations to restore devolution scheduled for September. Devolution suspended since October 2002, but recent signs of flexibility suggest Sinn Fein-Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) agreement possible. Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams suggested republicans should remove IRA as excuse for unionist stonewalling. DUP said Sinn Fein members with terrorist convictions could not hold key security and justice portfolios. Meanwhile, youth riots rocked Londonderry 10 August. Petrol bomb exploded in Protestant housing estate, causing no injuries.

Russia (Internal)

Surge of violence in Russia around 29 August presidential elections in Chechnya raised fears of new phase in conflict. Crashes of 2 Russian jetliners 24 August attributed to terrorism, as Russian investigators announced traces of explosives found in wrecks. Extremist group allegedly linked to al Qaeda claimed responsibility, but claim uncorroborated. Investigators focused on 2 female passengers – both apparently Chechens. Moscow suicide bomber killed 9 day after election; 2 days later, gunmen seized school in southern Russia, holding up to 400 hostages. Kremlin favourite General Alu Alkhanov won Chechen election, reportedly receiving nearly 74% of vote. Turnout said to have been over 85%, though observers noted empty polling stations. Dozens killed in rebel offensive in and around Grozny 21 August.

Serbia

Serbian PM Vojislav Kostunica continued to deny knowledge of Hague-indictees’ whereabouts. U.S. repeated demands for extradition of former Bosnian Serb military leader Ratko Mladic to Hague Tribunal along with all other indictees. Interethnic tensions in Vojvodina and subsequent Hungarian and Croatian government protests increased pressure on Serbian government to address issue. Montenegro’s governing Democratic Party of Socialists’ leader, Miodrag Vukovic, said 18 August that Montenegrin authorities to formally propose end of union talks in September, although Belgrade Agreement stipulates Serbia-Montenegro must hold parliamentary elections before referendum on future of state union. Milosevic trial resumed 31 August to hear long-delayed defence. Serbian local elections to be held 19 September.

Tajikistan

Tension in Dushanbe after head of Tajik drugs agency and former commander of Presidential Guard Ghafur Mirzoev arrested 6 August and sacked. Mirzoev major political player: dismissal significant move by President Imomali Rakhmonov to consolidate power. Concerns over press freedom deepened after opposition editor assaulted and 2 newspapers forced to suspend operations.

Türkiye

Turkish police blamed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a.k.a. Kongra-Gel, for 2 bomb attacks in Istanbul’s tourist districts and further gas plant bombing 10 August, which together killed 2 and injured 11. PKK denied involvement and links to group claiming responsibility: Kurdistan Liberation Hawks (TAK). PKK official said it would halt attacks if Turkish government agreed to truce; PKK broke unilateral ceasefire June 2004. In separate incidents violence in southeastern Turkey claimed 14 lives.

Turkmenistan

State religious board dismissed country’s chief mufti, citing his “serious shortcomings in carrying out religious work”. President Saparmurat Niazov increasingly dominating religious sphere: ordered collection of his own spiritual writings displayed alongside Koran in mosques.

Uzbekistan

Court sentenced 15 people to jail in connection with March and April attacks in Tashkent and Bukhara, which killed 47. Government claimed attacks carried out by Islamic group Hizb ut-Tahrir; also blamed group for 30 July Tashkent suicide bombings at U.S. and Israeli embassies and Uzbek prosecutor’s office. U.S. announced $21 million in new military aid, month after State Department cancelled $18 million in non- military aid due to Uzbekistan’s poor human rights record.

Latin America & Caribbean

Bolivia

Protests by landless farmers and transport workers against government energy and land distribution policies continued, despite 18 July referendum results in favour of President Mesa’s policies. Bolivia and Peru signed agreement on energy integration 4 August, allowing Bolivia access through Peruvian port of Ilo for gas exports.

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