CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Under heavy pressure from Syria, Lebanese cabinet approved bill to amend constitution to allow President Emile Lahoud to stay on as country’s leader after 6-year term ends in November 2004. Bill likely to be approved by parliament in September, despite strong domestic opposition. Newly re-elected leader of Hizbollah, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, said German-mediated talks with Israel on possible prisoner exchange continue.
Compensation deal agreed 10 August for 1986 Berlin disco bombing, further opening way for improved European- Libyan relations. IAEA report on Libyan nuclear disclosure praised Libyan cooperation while warning gaps remained.
Up to 40 officers, including high-ranking members of National Guard, arrested for allegedly planning coup attempt against President Maaouiya Ouid Taya. Islamists apparently not involved; opposition leader Mohamed Jemil Ould Mansour detained, later released. Some accuse government of using coup as pretext to crack down on opposition, purge army. President Taya suggested plot backed by Libya and Burkina Faso.
U.S. President Bush signed Free Trade Agreement with Morocco 19 August. Moroccan intelligence report said 2,000 Moroccan “terrorist elements” under surveillance.
In positive step, authorities set November date for nation-wide municipal elections. Newly published election law unclear on whether women to participate. Rare public trial of 3 reformists, arrested in March, began amid disruptions caused by defendants’ supporters. Security forces said top militant Faris al-Zahrani arrested.
Israeli army chief General Moshe Yaalon said returning Golan Heights to Syria – key Damascus demand in any peace deal – would not compromise Israel’s security. Syrian Kurds claimed new wave of arrests; said over 180 remain in detention following March riots. (See also Lebanon above.)
Algerian President Bouteflika restated Algerian support for Western Sahara Baker plan 11 August. Plan rejected by Morocco, accepted by Polisario independence movement.
Government forces continued mountain offensive against radical Shiite cleric Hussein al-Houthi. Eleven Yemeni soldiers reportedly killed in rebel ambush 24 August.
Moves towards renewed talks on setting election date between government and UNITA despite fears SPLA government hoping to delay till outside limit of 2006, as suggested by Council of Republic Presidential advisers; UNITA calling for 2005 date. Meanwhile, Angola signed up to regionally-backed African Peer Review Mechanism.
Majority Hutu Forces for the Defence of Democracy rebel group said 27 July would rejoin interim power-sharing administration. Final power-sharing talks in Pretoria ended without agreement 21 July, but subsequent trip to Bujumbura by South African mediator Jacob Zuma 26-27 July broke deadlock. Six minority Tutsi parties boycotted talks. Constitutional agreement necessary if 31 October election deadline stipulated in 2000 Arusha accords to be met. UN peacekeepers deployed throughout Bujumbura Rural province.
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