CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Despite 11 July Sudan-Chad agreement on joint border patrols, Chad remains at risk of destabilisation from Darfur crisis. Deteriorating conditions in Farchana and Breijing refugee camps led to violence among some of Chad’s 180,000 Sudanese refugees, causing brief closure of camps to aid agencies. Major food aid shortage for 27,000 refugees from Central African Republic. France announced 200 troops to deploy to eastern Chad.
After months of stalemate, opposition agreed 30 July to return to President Gbagbo’s government after intensive negotiations at UN-Africa Union summit in Accra. Gbagbo agreed to push through amendment on eligibility for presidential elections without recourse to National Assembly or referendum; Forces Nouvelles (FN) rebels agreed to general militia disarmament starting mid- October. But scepticism remained over implementation. UN human rights investigators arrived 16 July planning to probe abuse since 2002. Underlying anti-UN and anti-French sentiment remains; Ivorian soldier charged 14 July with murder of French peacekeeper in Yamoussoukro.
Sporadic violence continued across eastern Congo, prompting calls for strengthening of UN peacekeeping mission (MONUC). Mission extended to 1 October in 29 July review, with thorough revamp planned for coming months to boost effectiveness, possibly including troop increase. Estimated 35,000 displaced from Kalehe, 35km north of Bukavu, as struggle between General Nkunda’s Tutsi Congolese rebels and army continues. UN report claimed Rwanda backed Nkunda’s forces in June occupation of Bukavu, supplying arms in spite of embargo; denied by Rwanda. Congolese army continued to fight Rwandan Hutu Interahamwe rebels, killing 23 North Kivu 12 July. Elsewhere, 50 killed in ethnic militia struggle for Djalasiga gold mine Ituri province despite 14 May Act of Engagement peace deal and UN military presence.
UN Special Representative Joseph Legwaila warned UN could not police 2-year border dispute indefinitely. Ethiopian PM Miles Zedawi stated willingness to negotiate; Eritrea said matter had already been resolved by 2003 ruling. Indian General Singh replaced British General Gordon as commander of UN military force. Fifty militia killed on Sudan-Ethiopia border 29 July; Ethiopia said men trained by Eritrea.
Highly unstable situation as escalating rice prices continued to cause anger against government of ailing President Lansana Conté, particularly in capital Conakry. Fear of political void and regional implications should Conté die. Initially ethno-religious tensions around Nzérékoré in far south- east compounded by presence of mostly LURD ex- combatants. Tensions rising with Sierra Leone over Guinea- occupied town of Yenga; Sierra Leone locals claim harassment from Guinean army.
Disarmament and reintegration program continued as UN Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) extended its control towards border areas; claimed 54,000 ex-combatants disarmed. Fears of cross-border smuggling prompted UN probe 21 July.
Continuing spate of grenade attacks totalling 17 since 26 June: attack on former President Albert Zafy 8 July and on Taomasina port 19 July. Police arrested 17. Deteriorating economic conditions, including soaring inflation, have sparked widespread dissatisfaction with President Ravalomanana’s government.
Tensions remained high in Nigeria, but flare-ups of ethno-religious violence that left hundreds dead in central states in recent months have subsided. In southern oil-rich Delta province, Ijaw militia leader Asari Dokubi said 11 fighters killed in Port Harcourt shoot-out. Dokubi disputes June peace agreement with Itsekiri and claims Delta independence. In positive development, Nigeria and Cameroon began land transfers along disputed border.
Government responded angrily to UN panel report claiming it broke Democratic Republic of Congo arms embargo, supplying weapons to RCD Congolese rebel group, which briefly took Bukavu, eastern DRC, in June. Former finance minister Emmanuel Ndindabahizi 15 July became 20th convicted of genocide of 81 indicted.
Country relatively stable, despite lingering border tensions with Liberia around Dawa, where LURD rebels remain; and rising disagreement over Guinean presence in town of Yenga. UNHCR repatriation program saw last of 178,000 refugees returned to Sierra Leone 22 July.
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