July 2004

Somali national reconciliation conference failed to meet 30 July date for Nairobi inauguration of transitional parliament with hitches in allocating seats to Darod and Dir clans. Missed 31 July deadline for end of Phase III of peace process set by regional IGAD mediators, but discussions continue.

Growing but still inadequate international response to crisis in Darfur. UN Security Council voted 13-0, with 2 abstentions, in support of long-awaited - but watered-down - resolution 30 July, imposing immediate arms embargo on non-government entities, threatening further action in 30 days if Sudan fails to rein in Janjaweed militias. Following visit of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, Sudan and UN issued joint communiqué 3 July promising to alleviate crisis in Darfur; UN observers will report back to Joint Implementation Mechanism 2 August. U.S. Congress voted to label situation “genocide” 22 July. UK hinted at possible 5,000-strong troop deployment, with Sudan rejecting notion of foreign intervention, calling for “balance” and time, and claiming 5,000 police deployed to Darfur. Africa Union (AU)- backed talks in Addis Ababa between government and Darfur rebels collapsed 17 July after 2 days. AU summit meeting in Ghana 30 July mooted strengthening of AU mission beyond planned 300. AU observers reported ongoing Janjaweed atrocities 28 July. Sudan accused Eritrea 31 July of backing alleged alliance between Darfur rebels and eastern Free Lions Association insurgents.

Government claimed Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebels increasingly weak as result of Operation Iron Fist II in southern Sudan: numerous defections and 14 July capture of Brigadier Kenneth Banya, key member of LRA high command. Ugandan army says nearly caught LRA leader Joseph Kony with raid on Sudanese town of Juba 29 July, killing 120. LRA active, killing 100 in southern Sudan raids near Moti. International Criminal Court began investigation into LRA war crimes in northern Uganda.

President Mugabe, 80, opened parliament 20 July promising reform of electoral laws before March 2005 elections; greeted with surprise, scepticism and disagreement with opposition MDC over how to proceed. Meanwhile, government introduced bill to increase state power over NGOs and churches. UN Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) continued to underline famine risk, predicting 325,000 ton grain shortfall.

Parliamentary elections, originally to run in parallel with 9 October presidential election, rescheduled for April 2005 due to lack of authoritative population data and progress on disarmament. Junbish party leader Abdul Rashid Dostum resigned from nominal post as President Karzai’s military adviser to stand for presidency. FM Abdullah to support former education minister Yunus Qanuni’s bid for presidency. Karzai dropped powerful defense minister Mohammed Fahim as running mate 26 July. Fahim also to support Qanuni. In bid to accelerate disarmament, Karzai reassigned 3 recalcitrant militia leaders, including Atta Mohammad in Mazar-e Sharif, from army corps command posts to civilian posts as governors and police chiefs. Médecins Sans Frontières announced withdrawal from country citing lack of security and inconclusive investigations into June killings of MSF personnel. Attacks continued on election workers. Widespread clashes between U.S./Afghan forces and Taliban fighters killed at least 40. Factional fighting also continued. NATO approved deployment of 1,800 additional troops by September to reinforce election security. President Karzai signed 14 July decree stating that refusal to disarm, remobilising troops, or maintaining unofficial militias would be punished.

Two general strikes called in reaction to 21 June explosion at opposition Awami League rally caused disruption throughout Dhaka. Reportedly 24 killed in multiple shooting incidents of Indian northeast separatists in Dhaka 17 July. Monsoon floods engulfed two thirds of country.

Outspoken Hong Kong radio host forced to resign under pressure from management amid concerns of diminishing press freedom in former British colony.

Foreign Minister Natwar Singh met Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf in first bilateral talks with India’s new government 23 July. Elsewhere, talks began between several northeast separatist groups and New Delhi, but 2 main groups, United Liberation Front of Asom and National Democratic Front of Bodoland, not participating. National Socialist Council of Nagaland leaders met government negotiators in Thailand 29 July extending lapsed ceasefire for another year. In positive move, government in southern Andhra Pradesh state lifted 12-year ban on Maoist People’s War Group. Opposition National Democratic Alliance continued anti-corruption campaign against government, focusing on 6 “tainted” ministers.

Violence worsened in run-up to Indo-Pakistan peace talks; over 200 killed including numerous civilians. Indian Foreign Minister Natwar Singh met Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf 23 July. India expressed disappointment with Pakistani statement stressing “time-frame” for settling Kashmir dispute. Current round of talks to culminate in New Delhi foreign ministers’ meeting 5-6 September.

Opening round of first ever direct presidential elections proceeded smoothly. Former general Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) polled highest; to face incumbent President Megawati Sukarnoputri in second round 20 September. Election results gave SBY 34%, Megawati 27%, former general Wiranto 22%. Constitutional Court ruled new anti-terrorism law, used retroactively to convict Bali bombers, violates constitution, but ruling will only apply to future cases: police dropped plans to charge cleric Abu Bakar Baasyir over Bali bombings (though still to be charged with heading Jemaah Islamiah). Aceh province governor Abdullah Puteh suspended from duties while being investigated over graft case. Over 230 people described as “suspected terrorists” killed in Aceh since martial law lifted in May. Protestant minister killed in church shooting Palu city, Central Sulawesi.