Nigeria is confronted by multiple security challenges, notably the resilient Boko Haram Islamist insurgency in the north east, long-running discontent and militancy in the Niger Delta, increasing violence between herders and farming communities spreading from the central belt southward, and separatist Biafra agitation in the Igbo south east. Violence, particularly by the Boko Haram insurgency, has displaced more than two million people, created a massive humanitarian crisis, and prompted the rise of civilian vigilante self-defence groups that pose new policy dilemmas and possible security risks. Crisis Group seeks to help the Nigerian government by shedding new light on the country’s security challenges, de-escalating risks and tension, and encouraging regional and gender-specific approaches toward ending the violence durably.
Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have left ECOWAS, the regional bloc that sanctioned them after military officers seized power in each. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Nnamdi Obasi assesses the import of these events for West Africa’s security architecture and Nigeria’s influence therein.
Security forces continued operations against armed groups but jihadist, bandit, herder-farmer and separatist violence persisted.
Jihadist violence lingered in North East despite military efforts. Govt forces reported further gains against Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram in Borno state. Notably, air force claimed it killed several insurgents, destroyed numerous hideouts and camps in 3 July airstrikes in Mandara mountains. Meanwhile, also in Borno, insurgent explosive devices 25 July killed at least seven soldiers on Monguno-Baga road and 31 July killed at least 19 civilians at teahouse in Kawuri village, Konduga area. Court 28 July sentenced 125 suspected Boko Haram members and financiers to various jail terms.
Bandits plagued North West and North Central zones, despite security operations. Notably, in Katsina state, bandits 6 July kidnapped 26 in Runka village, Safana area. In Zamfara state, armed group 14 July killed four and abducted about 150 from Dan Isa village, Kaura Namoda area. In Sokoto state’s Sabon Birni area, bandits 27 July seized local chief and six others, demanding over $300,000 ransom, and 30 July killed two, abducted 20.
Herder-farmer crisis remained potent as govt announced new peace efforts. Armed groups attacked several farming villages in Benue state: 9 and 14 July killed 25 people in Agatu and Gwer West areas, locals blamed herders; 20 July killed 18 and abducted two in Katsina-Ala area as authorities blamed “local militia”. President Tinubu 9 July announced creation of new federal livestock ministry and committee to recommend measures to end herder-farmer violence.
Separatist-related violence continued in South East. Army 1 July said it killed a leader of separatist group Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) armed wing Eastern Security Network (ESN), and arrested two others during raids on forest camps in Imo state. Gunmen 29-30 July killed five police in Owerri and Mbaitoli areas of Imo; Finland-based IPOB factional leader, Simon Ekpa, claimed his Biafra Defence Forces were responsible.
In another important development. Govt and security forces ramped up efforts to prevent planned 1-15 Aug nationwide protests against rising living costs, including raising minimum wage and threatening crackdown on violence; but protest leaders remained adamant and tensions rose nationwide.
We must take these [Nigerian presidential elections] polls with a generous amount of salt.The poll samples are small and focusing on literate people.
The two jihadist groups in north-eastern Nigeria have bruised each other badly in internecine fighting. But they are still a menace to civilians, both in Nigeria and in the other Lake Chad states. The governments cannot afford to shift their gaze from the militant danger.
Two years after the suicide of Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau, jihadist factions continue a battle for control of Nigeria’s north east. In this Q&A, Crisis Group assesses the situation and lays out what authorities should do in response.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu will be sworn in as Nigeria’s president on 29 May, following an election dogged by legal challenges. With a weaker mandate than any of his predecessors, the new leader should take steps to reunite a fractured country facing numerous other problems.
In this online event, Crisis Group experts explore possible scenarios of the forthcoming Nigeria general elections.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group’s trustee, Lagos-based lawyer and human rights activist Ayo Obe, and Crisis Group's Senior Adviser Nnamdi Obasi, about Nigeria’s forthcoming elections, held amid deteriorating security and a currency crisis.
The largest, most youthful electorate in Nigerian history will head to the polls soon to decide high-stakes presidential, parliamentary and state-level races. Numerous violent incidents have already marred the campaign. Authorities can take several steps to lessen the dangers before, during and after the vote.
Authorities are keen to return or resettle the millions of people who fled homes in Borno state, the epicentre of fighting with Islamist militants in north-eastern Nigeria. But risks abound. The government should slow down its effort, focusing on protecting the displaced from further harm.
Nigeria’s forthcoming general elections, with four presidential candidates of note, will be hard fought. In this Q&A, Crisis Group outlines what is at stake and how key actors are preparing for the polls.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.