President Evariste Ndayishimiye enjoys good relations with the Democratic Republic of Congo next door. But following accusations that Rwanda is harbouring anti-Burundi insurgents and coup plotters, relations with that neighbour deteriorated severely over the course of 2023. At home, oppressive policies aimed at obstructing opposition continue while the ruling party’s supporters, especially its Imbonerakure youth wing, enjoy near impunity for their abuses. Crisis Group keeps an eye on Burundi’s role in the region’s fraught diplomacy and monitors its internal situation through the monthly conflict tracker CrisisWatch.
On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge over the next three to six months. It identifies key actors and dates to watch in support of global conflict prevention efforts.
Efforts to sideline opposition ahead of 2025 legislative elections continued amid further attacks on journalists, while economic situation remained dire.
Opposition parties faced increased harassment. Local rights groups reported ruling-party youth wing Imbonerakure 2 July killed National Congress for Freedom (CNL) opposition party member in Isare commune and 4 July arrested and beat four people, including local CNL head, in Rubirizi area (both Bujumbura Rural province). Imbonerakure also blamed for harassment of other opposition parties including 7 July disruption to Patriots’ Council party meeting in Vugizo commune (Makamba province) and 6-7 July damage to Sahwanya-Frodebu party premises in Mitakataka area (Bubanza province). Unknown assailants 7 July kidnapped Sahwanya-Frodebu youth leader in Rumonge town (Rumonge province).
Media freedom came under renewed attack. Imbonerakure 6 July attacked two journalists in Rumonge reporting on youth wing’s violence against suspected thief; police 13 July briefly detained another journalist in Bweru commune (Ruyigi province). Rights organisations at UN Human Rights Council meeting 4 July expressed concern over increasing threats ahead of 2025 elections including “hostile” environment for journalists and “harassment, intimidation, and reprisals against civil society actors”; UN rapporteur on human rights in Burundi, Fortuné Gaetan Zongo, same day said Imbonerakure have “free rein to terrorise the population, carry out arbitrary arrests, forcibly disappear people”.
Cross-border dynamics continued to strain perilous economic situation. FM Shingiro 1 July stated border with Rwanda will remain closed until Kigali extradites those responsible for 2015 coup attempt, heightening concerns among locals about worsening economic hardship. In response to severe fuel shortages in Burundi, authorities in Uvira city in neighbouring DR Congo 11 July lifted restrictions on trade of fuel trade via Rusizi River.
Fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is intensifying, with Ugandan and Burundian soldiers in pursuit of rebels and Congolese insurgents on the rebound. With help from its allies, Kinshasa should step up diplomacy lest the country become a regional battleground once more.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Great Lakes expert Nelleke van de Walle about the escalation of violence in the eastern DR Congo, as Uganda and Burundi deploy troops to fight rebels in the area and Rwanda threatens to do the same.
Every year Crisis Group publishes two additional Watch List updates that complement its annual Watch List for the EU, most recently published in January 2021. These publications identify major crises and conflict situations where the European Union and its member states can generate stronger prospects for peace. The Autumn Update of the Watch List 2021 includes entries on Afghanistan, Burundi, Iran, Nagorno-Karabakh and Nicaragua.
Reform promises by Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye have led to a marked improvement in relations with the EU. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2021 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to set benchmarks for Burundian human rights reforms and ensure compliance with EU-Burundi agreements.
In his year in office, Burundian President Evariste Ndayishimiye has shown an appetite for reform and re-engagement with international partners. In this Q &A, Crisis Group experts assess whether ruling-party hardliners will hold the country back from turning a corner.
On 20 May, Burundians will elect a new president, future members of parliament and municipal councillors, amid the COVID-19 pandemic. In this Q&A, Crisis Group looks at the various scenarios for the polls and the challenges that will face whoever prevails.
As May elections approach, Burundi’s ruling party says it has stopped demanding payments from citizens to finance the polls. But the confiscatory practice persists. Bujumbura should move decisively to halt it as a prelude to wider-ranging improvement of governance in the country.
President Tshisekedi’s plans for joint operations with DR Congo’s belligerent eastern neighbours against its rebels risks regional proxy warfare. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2020 for European policymakers, Crisis Group urges the EU to encourage diplomatic efforts in the region and Tshisekedi to shelve his plan for the joint operations.
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