In early 2021, Libyan politicians agreed on terms for a national unity government bringing together what had been two administrations in Tripoli and Tobruk. The accord was another step toward lasting stability following the October 2020 ceasefire between the two rival militaries. Unifying national institutions is taking time, however, and several possible pitfalls lie ahead. Through research and advocacy, Crisis Group aims to keep the national unity agreement intact and the various associated processes on track, encouraging dialogue among Libyans and vigorous engagement on the part of the UN and external powers with influence in the country.
In the aftermath of massive flooding that killed some 20,000 people, Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini travelled to Libya to look into what caused the disaster and who might bear responsibility.
Rival assemblies agreed on roadmap for unity govt, although tensions remained amid lack of budget compromise; UN human rights chief criticised rise in detentions and disappearances.
Rival authorities agreed on forming unity govt and organising elections. Around 130 members from east-based House of Representatives (HoR) and Tripoli-based High State Council (HSC) 18 July met in Egyptian capital Cairo and announced they agreed on forming unity govt and organising legislative and presidential elections. Doubts persisted, however, over whether political deadlock had actually been broken as it remained unclear whether HSC as a whole had sincerely agreed to roadmap or whether HoR would take process forward in absence of UN endorsement. Meanwhile, selection procedures for potential new govt and election laws remained in limbo.
Budget deadlock continued despite attempts at compromise. HoR Speaker Aguila Saleh 7 July met Central Bank Governor Sadiq al-Kabir to discuss steps to unify budget. HoR 10 July approved additional budget of $18.3bn to finance country’s east-based institutions; HSC next day rejected budget, criticising unilateral approach and large size of additional funds.
International actors criticised arbitrary arrests and disappearances. UN human rights chief Volker Türk 9 July lamented stalled political process and deteriorating human rights situation, highlighting “escalation in arbitrary arrests and detentions, enforced disappearances”, especially of civil society activists and political opposition. Unidentified armed men 8 July abducted political activist Moatassim al-Areebi in Misrata city, releasing him 11 July after UN and U.S. called for his release. Authorities 11 July detained journalist Ahmed al-Sanussi, who reported on allegations of govt corruption, in capital Tripoli; police 14 July released Sanussi after UN, EU and others criticised arrest.
In other important developments. Amid Italian seizures in June of Russian shipment of Chinese-made drones headed to eastern port of Benghazi in violation of arms embargo, U.S. military delegation 16-18 July visited PM Dabaiba in Tripoli and representatives of eastern commander Khalifa Haftar to discuss unification of military institutions. Court 28 July sentenced 12 officials to prison terms between nine and 27 years for culpability in Sept 2023 dam collapses amid floods in Derna city that killed over 5,000.
The political and economic landscape in [Libya] gives the current actors very little incentive to compromise.
[The] disaster that has hit Derna has really brought together the country, the people [of Libya], most importantly.
There is a need for the UN envoy to play a more proactive role in coordinating international positions and putting pressure on Libyan actors to move the situation forward...
In this online event Crisis Group analyst Claudia Gazzini and CNN international correspondent Jomana Karadsheh Scott offer some preliminary considerations on what happened, what they witnessed and what could have been done to prevent this tragedy.
In the aftermath of a burst dam and massive flooding, Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini travelled to Derna in eastern Libya to cover the relief effort and assess the two rival governments’ response.
Libyan politicians have floated a plan to put together an interim government. The UN and other external actors should support this step toward breaking the country’s political deadlock.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Libya expert Claudia Gazzini, to discuss the political standoff in Libya, the changing nature of foreign involvement in the country and potential links to fighting in Sudan.
As the United Nations Special Representative in Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, presents his plan for paving a way out of the country's political problems, Claudia Gazzini looks at four obstacles that his proposal will face.
In this In Black & White video, Crisis Group's Expert Claudia Gazzini explains that the only way to put Libya back on track is to maintain and strengthen a multitrack approach to Libya's problem.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Claudia Gazzini, Crisis Group’s Libya expert, to look at the political standoff in Libya that led to deadly clashes over the summer and whether a new UN envoy can help find a way out.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood asks Crisis Group experts how the Ukraine war has affected peacemaking elsewhere, notably Nagorno-Karabakh, where Moscow plays a major diplomatic role, and Libya, where the Kremlin backs one of the conflict’s main protagonists.
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