August 2003

International pressure mounting on Myanmar’s military leadership over detention (since late May) of opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. U.S. and EU bolstered sanctions but none of neighbours - with whom it does most of its trade - has imposed sanctions; and China has strongly criticised them. August saw cabinet reshuffle among ruling generals. On August 30, Gen. Khin Nyunt, newly-appointed PM, laid out roadmap to elections next May - no mention of NLD role or Suu Kyi release. U.S. authorities believe Suu Kyi is on hunger strike.

Government lifted “state of rebellion” on 11 August. Soldiers who staged attempted coup in July put on trial. Defence Secretary resigned on 29 August - President Arroyo assumed post. 2 members of terrorist group Abu Sayyaf arrested - under interrogation claimed Abu Sayyaf was planning bombings in Mindanao in October. July ceasefire between government and MILF holding - peace talks due in Malaysia on 4 September.

Region’s wealthiest and most stable country continues to attract attention for poor treatment of journalists and opposition figures. Kazakh authorities reportedly refusing request for pardon from Ghalymzhan Zhaqiyanov, jailed co-founder of Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, until he promises to stay out of politics.

Dissatisfaction with Government remains high, particularly in south. President Akayev consolidated power by pushing through widely-criticised constitutional referendum, but promises not to run in next election, due in 2005. Conviction of popular opposition leader Feliks Kulov upheld by Supreme Court.

Following Kyrgyz president’s example, President Rakhmonov held referendum on package of constitutional changes, one of which could allow him to remain in power until 2020. Government said amendments approved by over 93% of voters.

Central Asia’s most repressive and isolated country showing no signs of progress. President Niyazov maintains strict control over general population, limiting access to information, restricting travel abroad, and using systematic human rights abuses to stifle dissent. Parliament, until recently rubber-stamping body, now stripped even of that function.

Government continued campaign against suspected Islamic extremists, especially alleged members of banned Hizb ut-Tahrir. Heavy-handedness on part of security services, including widespread use of torture, risks further radicalising segments of the Muslim population. Little danger of conflict in short term, but continuing repressive policies here, as elsewhere in region, risk future unrest.

Parliament finally approved composition of new electoral commission, but compromise went against recommendations of U.S. envoy James Baker aimed at preventing electoral fraud in Nov. 2003 elections. Little progress made in negotiations over future status of Abkhazia.

Moldovan and Transdniestrian forces took first demilitarisation step in years, withdrawing 37 armoured vehicles from Security Zone separating sides. EU and NATO discussing OSCE proposal to send peacekeepers Moldova to help settle dispute and bring order to region.

SFOR made unsuccessful efforts to capture indicted war criminals, mounting raid on home of Gen. Ratko Mladic's late mother on 13 August and surrounding sites associated with Radovan Karadzic in Pale on 26 August. Mitar Rasevic, chief warder at Serb prison in Foca, surrendered to Hague Tribunal. The 3 ruling nationalist parties continue to bicker - both with coalition partners and within their ranks over jobs, education and tax reform, and proposed unification of Mostar.