Tunisia, home to the first and arguably most successful of the 2011 Arab uprisings, appears to be backsliding in its transition to democracy. In mid-2021, President Kaïs Saïed consolidated powers in the executive through a series of steps widely regarded as unconstitutional. Opposition is growing though the president retains a strong social base. The polarisation could threaten stability, particularly as it intersects with persistent budgetary woes and popular discontent over economic and other inequality. Crisis Group works to help resolve these tensions in a country that remains critical for security in North Africa as a whole.
إضافة إلى التراجع عن الديمقراطية، تواجه تونس أزمة اقتصادية طاحنة، تفاقمها ديون خارجية تجد صعوبة بالغة في سدادها. ولذلك، ينبغي على الجهات الفاعلة الخارجية أن تستمر في الضغط على الحكومة بشأن حقوق الإنسان، وأن تستمر في الوقت نفسه في البحث عن سبل لتفادي حدوث السيناريوهات الأسوأ. ويُعد السبيل الرئيسي لتجنب وقوع ذلك الحصول على قرض بشروط معدَّلة من صندوق النقد الدولي.
Political tensions and scattered unrest continued ahead of presidential election due by October; govt pursued closer ties with China and Iran as EU support wavered.
Social unrest continued amid uncertainty over presidential vote. Citizens took to social media to denounce hardline police tactics after football fans clashed with police 2 June at Hammadi Agrebi Olympic Stadium in Radès town outside capital Tunis, with sixty arrested and dozens wounded. Inhabitants of Rouai town in Jendouba governate 11 June demonstrated against lack of drinking water; police same day temporarily detained three members of NGO Tunisian Water Observatory, preventing them from covering protests. Presidential election date still unknown despite President Saïed and electoral authority being required to set electoral calendar by late July, at least three months before end of Saïed’s current mandate.
Tunis moved closer to Beijing and Tehran amid fraying relations with EU. Saïed 28 May-1 June participated in Ministerial Conference of Sino-Arab Cooperation Forum in Beijing, resulting in announcement of bilateral strategic partnership in economic, technical and cultural fields. Govt 15 June abolished entry visa requirements for Iranian and Iraqi tourists following Saïed’s late May visit to Tehran. Tensions with European actors continued to grow; despite strong partnership with Rome, Saïed declined invite to 13-15 June G7 summit in Italy, sending PM Hachani instead. EU High Representative Josep Borrell 24 June said Tunisia “very important and longstanding partner” but expressed concern over govt’s “drive closer to Russia, Iran and China”.
In another important development. With Italian support, UN 19 June officially recognised Tunis’ search and rescue zone in Mediterranean Sea as newest measure for limiting migrant flows to Europe.
Italy is trying to reinforce the bilateral relationship to convince Tunisia to continue to collaborate on [irregular migration].
The Europeans feel that they are on the front line of instability in North Africa and in the Mediterranean.
Tunisia’s socio-economic woes could get worse if it defaults on its debt. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group advises the EU to encourage a revised loan deal with the IMF but to pressure Tunis on governance and human rights.
التوترات السياسية التي غذّاها إحكام الرئيس قيس سعيِّد قبضته على السلطة وما تلا ذلك من سياسات تُخاطر بدفع تونس التي تكتنفها الأزمات إلى الهاوية. ولذلك، ينبغي على سعيِّد أن ينظم حواراً وطنياً وأن يعيد البلاد إلى نظام دستوري متفاوض عليه. واستجابة لذلك، يتعين على الشركاء الدوليين طرح آفاق اقتصادية جديدة للبلاد.
Tunisia faces multiple economic and social challenges following the suspension of parliament and the dismissal of the prime minister. This current state of emergency could fuel political turmoil and violence in the country. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to maintain bilateral cooperation with Tunisia and offer further economic incentives.
On 25 July, Tunisia’s President Kaïs Saïed invoked the constitution to seize emergency powers after months of crisis. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani says compromise between Saïed and his parliamentary opponents remains possible, but so does grave violence.
رغم حدوث تراجع ملحوظ في الهجمات الجهادية في تونس منذ عام 2016، فإن الحكومة تستمر في فرض إجراءات قمعية وغير مركَّزة في مكافحة الإرهاب. ينبغي على السلطات التونسية إجراء إصلاحات في مجالي الأمن والعدالة الجنائية لمنع حدوث تصاعد في حدة العنف.
Tunisia’s new government and president represent political forces that emerged in late 2019’s elections, stirring up populism, polarisation and tensions. With judicious support from the EU, the new political class should focus on the economy and choose a path of dialogue and administrative reform.
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