A decade of diplomacy, sanctions and nuclear brinkmanship involving Iran and the UN Security Council’s five permanent members (plus Germany) led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This accord enshrined a core compromise that Crisis Group had advocated since 2003: acceptance of a limited, tightly monitored uranium enrichment program in Iran in return for that country’s reintegration into the global economy. Despite the JCPOA’s successful first years, the U.S. withdrew from the deal in 2018, putting it at risk of collapse while raising the danger of conflict between Tehran, Washington and their respective allies. Through field research and high-level advocacy, Crisis Group focuses on salvaging the JCPOA and preventing regional tensions from boiling over.
Iranians head to the polls on 28 June to choose a successor to the late president. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez and Naysan Rafati look at the field of candidates and the immediate tasks awaiting the winner.
Iran held presidential election amid record low turnout; govt responded to censure resolution at UN nuclear agency with plans to expand uranium enrichment capacity as Western sanctions increased.
Country held presidential election to replace deceased President Raisi. Unelected oversight body, Guardian Council, 9 June approved six candidates for 28 June presidential election triggered by 19 May death of President Raisi; all but one came from conservative end of political spectrum. Voter turnout 28 June hit new historic low of 40 per cent with no candidate securing absolute majority. Runoff between centre-left Masoud Pezeshkian, backed by reformists and moderates, and far-right Saeed Jalili scheduled for 5 July.
Nuclear watchdog censured Iran for failing to cooperate, prompting Tehran’s ire. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Grossi 3 June opened Board of Governors meeting by noting ongoing expansion of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles, continued limits to IAEA’s access to Iranian facilities and lack of progress in resolving safeguards concerns. Board 5 June voted 20 to two in favour of censure resolution – the first since Nov 2022 – reiterating calls for Iranian cooperation on IAEA access and safeguards concerns, and stressing potential need for comprehensive and updated assessment by IAEA if such cooperation is not forthcoming. Iran’s foreign ministry next day denounced resolution and around 9-10 June informed IAEA of ongoing expansion of uranium enrichment capacity at Natanz and Fordow sites. U.S. 13 June warned it would “respond accordingly” if expansion was implemented and joined IAEA in calling on Tehran to cooperate with agency on safeguards.
U.S. and Canada further sanctioned Iranian individuals and entities. U.S. 10 June blacklisted ten people, entities and ships for financing Houthis; 17 June unveiled another nine Houthi-related designations and designated Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq member Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya as terrorist organisation; 25 June sanctioned nearly 50 entities and individuals described as Iranian govt’s “shadow banking” network; and 27 June blacklisted three entities and 11 associate vessels for transporting Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals, in response to Iran’s nuclear advancements. Canada 19 June designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps as terrorist group.
The next Iranian government … [is] not at all eager to rely on Russia and China for their economic needs, and they want sanctions relief.
The Islamic Republic has really focused on ideological conformity at the top rather than legitimacy from below.
Iran is more aggressive in the region, more repressive at home, and closer to the verge of nuclear weapons than ever before.
Iran’s government appears to have concluded that the Damascus strike [by Israel] was a strategic inflection point, where failure to retaliate would carry more downsides t...
Progress in restoring relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia has sputtered over a year after China brokered a rapprochement. To get it going again, the two states will need to contain disagreements while they work to advance in less political domains.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein and Stephen Pomper about the Iranian president’s sudden death and the International Criminal Court prosecutor’s arrest warrants requests for Israeli and Hamas leaders.
A helicopter crash on 19 May killed Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who many had thought was the likely successor to the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez and Naysan Rafati look at the implications of Raisi’s sudden demise.
Tehran has concluded that a regional reordering is underway. The death of the president and foreign minister won’t change that.
While continuity in foreign policy is likely, tension between state and societycould be further exacerbated by competition within the conservative camp.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna, Lahib Higel and Robert Blecher to talk about the exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel and the implications for Gaza.
Israel and its allies fended off almost all the armed drones and missiles fired by Iran on 13 April. This outcome affords both sides a face-saving way out of what could otherwise be a ruinous broader confrontation.
Iran and Israel May Not Be Finished.
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