Chadians will soon elect a new president, concluding a three-year political transition that will almost certainly see the incumbent Mahamat Déby Itno retain power. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Enrica Picco and Charles Bouëssel examine the issues at stake and the possible threats to the country’s stability after the vote.
Ruling party stepped up opposition repression following May presidential election win; govt maintained delicate balancing act with international partners.
Internal party divisions escalated as repression of opposition figures intensified. Despite election win last month, tensions within ruling-Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) erupted amid strains of competition for govt positions; notably, physical confrontation between MPS Secretary General and party member 7 June resulted in injuries to latter. Meanwhile, concerns over domestic and international repression of opposition continued after France-based activist Charfadine Galmaye Salimi 30 May accused National Security Agency head and deputy of plotting to assassinate him in France. Police 3 June violently repressed student protest in capital N’Djamena’s ninth district, injuring at least 12 students.
Govt directed army to deploy to tackle rising crime. President Déby 18 June ordered exceptional national army deployment to address rising crime in interior following attacks by road-blocking bandits on traders in Salamat province, including 2 June near Am-Timam town that killed one and 8 June in Haraze-Mangueigne division that killed another, prompting local outcry. Meanwhile, assailants 12 June attacked Toumbao village, Logone Oriental province, killing five civilians, injuring seven and stealing 500 cattle.
Govt deepened relations with Russia, but also defended ties with West. Russian FM Lavrov 5 June visited N’Djamena, marking further step in strengthening bilateral ties following Déby’s Jan visit to Russian capital Moscow; Lavrov praised bilateral cooperation and encouraged Chad’s support for Russia in conflict in Ukraine. Despite growing Russian influence and ongoing anti-Western rhetoric by some regime figures, govt continued to support traditional allies; authorities 7 June banned peaceful march by Revolutionary Movement for Democracy and Peace group against French presence while PM Halina 13 June reaffirmed commitment to historic Western allies but emphasised country’s right to engage with new security partners during presentation of govt program to National Assembly.
In another important development. Govt 20 June announced that fire 18-19 June engulfed military ammunition depot in N’Djamena, resulting in nine deaths and dozens of injuries.
Dans cet épisode d’Afrique 360°, Enrica Picco et Rinaldo Depagne reçoivent Remadji Hoinathy, chercheur à l’ISS pour l’Afrique centrale et le bassin du lac Tchad, et Thierry Vircoulon, chercheur associé à l’IFRI, pour évoquer les prochaines élections présidentielles au Tchad et les menaces internes et externes qui pèsent sur ce pays.
This week on The Horn, Alan is joined by Crisis Group’s Central Africa Director Enrica Picco to discuss Mahamat Déby’s rule in Chad ahead of elections in May, the crackdowns on opposition, the fallout of the war in Sudan and the great power competition in the country.
War in Sudan’s Darfur region has triggered a refugee crisis in eastern Chad and raised concerns that turmoil could spread. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Enrica Picco draws upon research at the Chad-Sudan border to explain the challenges facing N’Djamena.
Chadians’ growing use of social media could prove a boon for the country’s political transition, but it could also fuel violence offline. With donor backing, authorities, civil society, online platforms and influencers should work to ensure social media remains a space for democratic debate rather than an accelerator of conflict.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Enrica Picco, Crisis Group’s Central Africa director, about the security forces’ crackdown on protesters in Chad last week, prospects for a return to civilian rule and whether more violence is likely.
In this video, Crisis Group’s Central Africa Project Director takes a look at what's happening in Chad and what can be done to avert further violence.
Enrica Picco, d’International Crisis Group, appelle le président de transition à nommer une commission d’enquête indépendante pour faire la lumière sur la répression des manifestations du 20 octobre.
Five months after President Idriss Déby’s sudden death, Chadian authorities are preparing a highly anticipated national dialogue. The country faces significant challenges as it charts a course to civilian rule.
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