Iran

A decade of diplomacy, sanctions and nuclear brinkmanship involving Iran and the UN Security Council’s five permanent members (plus Germany) led to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This accord enshrined a core compromise that Crisis Group had advocated since 2003: acceptance of a limited, tightly monitored uranium enrichment program in Iran in return for that country’s reintegration into the global economy. Despite the JCPOA’s successful first years, the U.S. withdrew from the deal in 2018, putting it at risk of collapse while raising the danger of conflict between Tehran, Washington and their respective allies. Through field research and high-level advocacy, Crisis Group focuses on salvaging the JCPOA and preventing regional tensions from boiling over.

CrisisWatch Iran

Unchanged Situation

Iran held presidential election amid record low turnout; govt responded to censure resolution at UN nuclear agency with plans to expand uranium enrichment capacity as Western sanctions increased. 

Country held presidential election to replace deceased President Raisi. Unelected oversight body, Guardian Council, 9 June approved six candidates for 28 June presidential election triggered by 19 May death of President Raisi; all but one came from conservative end of political spectrum. Voter turnout 28 June hit new historic low of 40 per cent with no candidate securing absolute majority. Runoff between centre-left Masoud Pezeshkian, backed by reformists and moderates, and far-right Saeed Jalili scheduled for 5 July.

Nuclear watchdog censured Iran for failing to cooperate, prompting Tehran’s ire. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director Rafael Grossi 3 June opened Board of Governors meeting by noting ongoing expansion of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpiles, continued limits to IAEA’s access to Iranian facilities and lack of progress in resolving safeguards concerns. Board 5 June voted 20 to two in favour of censure resolution – the first since Nov 2022 – reiterating calls for Iranian cooperation on IAEA access and safeguards concerns, and stressing potential need for comprehensive and updated assessment by IAEA if such cooperation is not forthcoming. Iran’s foreign ministry next day denounced resolution and around 9-10 June informed IAEA of ongoing expansion of uranium enrichment capacity at Natanz and Fordow sites. U.S. 13 June warned it would “respond accordingly” if expansion was implemented and joined IAEA in calling on Tehran to cooperate with agency on safeguards.

U.S. and Canada further sanctioned Iranian individuals and entities. U.S. 10 June blacklisted ten people, entities and ships for financing Houthis; 17 June unveiled another nine Houthi-related designations and designated Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq member Harakat Ansar Allah al-Awfiya as terrorist organisation; 25 June sanctioned nearly 50 entities and individuals described as Iranian govt’s “shadow banking” network; and 27 June blacklisted three entities and 11 associate vessels for transporting Iranian petroleum and petrochemicals, in response to Iran’s nuclear advancements. Canada 19 June designated Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps as terrorist group.

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In The News

19 Jun 2024
The next Iranian government … [is] not at all eager to rely on Russia and China for their economic needs, and they want sanctions relief. The Nation

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
22 May 2024
The Islamic Republic has really focused on ideological conformity at the top rather than legitimacy from below. New York Times

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
7 May 2024
Iran is more aggressive in the region, more repressive at home, and closer to the verge of nuclear weapons than ever before. Voice of America

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
14 Apr 2024
Iran’s government appears to have concluded that the Damascus strike [by Israel] was a strategic inflection point, where failure to retaliate would carry more downsides t... New York Times

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran

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Our People

Ali Vaez

Senior Adviser to the President & Project Director, Iran
Ali Vaez

Naysan Rafati

Senior Analyst, Iran

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