Egypt

Since a July 2013 military coup, Egypt has sought to reassert state authority undermined by the 2011 uprising at the expense of political inclusion, especially of the Muslim Brotherhood. The resulting polarisation has encouraged mounting political violence from the Islamic State (ISIS) and other violent groups, particularly in the Sinai Peninsula where a low-level insurgency has raged. In the Nile Valley, in 2017, ISIS has targeted the Coptic Christian minority, while al-Qaeda affiliates and other groups tied to the Brotherhood have targeted security forces. Crisis Group is urging the government to be more inclusive and address widespread violations of human and political rights, to better address security and economic challenges.

CrisisWatch Egypt

Unchanged Situation

Rafah border point with Gaza remained closed despite attempts to reach compromise between Egypt and Israel, while govt continued spending cuts and economic reforms. 

Rafah border crossing remained closed amid Israeli military presence. After Israel early May launched offensive on southern Gazan city of Rafah and seized control of border point – causing govt to suspend aid collaboration – Egyptian, Israeli and U.S. officials 2 June met in capital Cairo to discuss possible arrangements for reopening Rafah crossing to allow humanitarian aid to enter Gaza; govt continued to demand total Israeli withdrawal and that Palestinians or neutral actor, such as EU, manage crossing on Gazan side. FM Shoukry next day reiterated position during meeting with Spanish counterpart in Spain’s capital Madrid. Despite dialogue, border remained closed. Meanwhile, govt continued to refute suggestion it may join potential post-war multinational Arab-led military force responsible for overseeing security in Gaza.

Price hike in bread did not spark protests, despite serious economic hardship. Govt 1 June quadrupled cost of subsidised bread, marking first official price rise in 30 years; increase aimed to reduce subsidy spending in govt budget as part of plan to decrease long-term debt. Hike not met with protests or riots, despite extremely challenging economic conditions nationwide. Meanwhile, EU and govt 29 June signed agreement for €1bn financial aid to support economic reforms to boost private sector.

President reselected PM and assigned him to establish new govt. President Sisi 3 June re-appointed PM Madbouly and tasked him with forming new govt; cabinet reshuffle – expected since Sisi’s re-election in Dec 2023 – likely to take place early July. New govt expected to continue politically unpopular economic reforms in order to gain confidence of international creditors.

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In The News

8 Jun 2024
The Egyptian acts are pushed on the one hand by a sense of solidarity with the Palestinian cause but on the other hand as a matter of security. Al-Monitor

Riccardo Fabiani

Project Director, North Africa
31 May 2024
The tensions between Egypt and Israel on the Gaza border are effectively fuelling tensions between the U.S. and Egypt. Middle East Eye

Riccardo Fabiani

Project Director, North Africa
17 Jan 2024
[Egypt] cannot live with the permanent displacement of Palestinians into the Sinai Peninsula, the Gaza war’s crippling economic effects and risks of regional war. Bloomberg

Riccardo Fabiani

Project Director, North Africa
15 Jan 2024
Things have been very tense [on Gaza's border with Egypt], but there are limits to how far these tensions can go on a strategic level. The National

Michael Wahid Hanna

Program Director, U.S.
7 Dec 2023
If the war goes the way it’s been going, the border between Egypt and Gaza will come under immense pressure. Reality might have a say then. The National

Michael Wahid Hanna

Program Director, U.S.

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Michael Wahid Hanna

Program Director, U.S.
Michael Wahid Hanna

Riccardo Fabiani

Project Director, North Africa
Riccardo Fabiani

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