Venezuela is in the midst of a tense political standoff and socio-economic meltdown, with hyperinflation, violent crime, political repression and food shortages pushing nearly six million citizens to flee the country. Incumbent President Nicolás Maduro has grabbed power for the executive and dismantled democratic checks and balances, triggering moves backed by the U.S. and allies to unseat him and install an interim president. A negotiated restoration of legitimate and representative state institutions as well as urgent economic reform are vital if the country is to resolve the political crisis peacefully and reduce mass emigration. Crisis Group aims to engage national, Latin American and international players to build momentum for talks, strengthen human rights protections and help restore the rule of law.
Los venezolanos acudirán a las urnas el 28 de julio. Las encuestas indican que unas elecciones limpias darían la victoria a la oposición en el país suramericano asolado por la crisis económica. Crisis Group habló con chavistas para explorar cómo responderán a las posibilidades de perder el poder.
Tensions mounted in run-up to July presidential poll as Maduro govt, unwilling to relinquish power, continued to manipulate electoral conditions; outright fraud remains possible.
Opposition candidate’s wide lead in polls raised concerns about govt response. As July presidential poll drew closer, most credible polling organisations gave opposition coalition Unitary Platform’s candidate Edmundo González large lead over President Maduro. Delphos pollster Félix Seijas 4 June cautioned that his surveys show Maduro with “ceiling” of around 30% of vote (20 points behind González), meaning govt’s focus will likely be on discouraging opposition voter participation in order to win. This may require drastic steps, such as ban of Unitary Platform’s ticket and/or González’ candidacy, which would likely throw opposition into disarray. Manipulation of electoral conditions means most likely outcome of poll is victory for Maduro who, along with seven other candidates, 20 June signed agreement to respect results; González refused. In this event, protests are likely following announcement of results, though govt previously vowed to respond harshly, which could shrink their size.
Authorities reduced external election observation. Atop these risks, electoral authorities’ (CNE) late-May cancellation of EU electoral observation mission further indicated govt will prioritise winning poll over recovering international recognition and sanctions relief; opposition-linked CNE member Juan Carlos Delpino 11 June said council president made decision unilaterally, likely on instructions of National Assembly president Jorge Rodríguez; Delpino added that CNE had not met since March. NGO Carter Center and UN 19, 25 June confirmed they will send small observation teams to monitor voting. Deputy FM for Latin America Rander Peña 18 June said govt had invited BRICS+ bloc, including China and Russia, to observe election and confirmed Caracas’ intention to soon join bloc.
Crackdown on opposition figures persisted. Banned opposition candidate María Corina Machado 17 June accused govt of “criminalising the electoral route”, saying 37 opposition activists had been arrested in 2024, four of them in previous week. González same day said govt was creating a “hostile atmosphere” for election, while civil society leaders continued to spotlight security forces’ routine targeting of activists.
The [Venezuelan] opposition has a massive opportunity [in the upcoming elections] to make it clear Maduro isn’t wanted.
El Gobierno de Maduro [en Venezuela] tiene un interés en dar algunas concesiones desde el punto de vista político y electoral.
[Venezuelan President Maduro] can use repression and fraud to stay in power. But I think he would far rather win a relatively clean election.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Venezuela expert Phil Gunson to discuss Venezuela’s presidential elections and its government’s claim to an oil rich region in neighbouring Guyana.
El presidente venezolano, Nicolás Maduro, está inclinando a su favor las elecciones presidenciales de julio, en violación del acuerdo de Barbados de 2023. Aunque Maduro debe enfrentar las consecuencias, EE. UU. debe adoptar un enfoque calibrado para la reimposición de sanciones.
This edition includes entries on Cameroon, South Sudan, Venezuela and Western Sahara, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
El gobierno y la oposición de Venezuela han alcanzado un acuerdo que sentaría las bases para unas elecciones presidenciales competitivas en 2024. Podría suponer un gran avance en los esfuerzos por resolver la crisis política y socioeconómica del país. Sin embargo, el acuerdo aún no ha sido implementado y puede enfrentar obstáculos.
Con elecciones críticas aproximándose, las negociaciones para resolver la crisis politica en Venezuela están estancadas. Para evitar prolongar el malestar del país, el gobierno, la oposición y las potencias extranjeras deberían acordar un plan que implique el alivio de las sanciones y pasos correspondientes por parte de Caracas hacia elecciones más justas y un mejor funcionamiento de las instituciones estatales.
El aislamiento internacional de Venezuela está disminuyendo aunque su crisis política sigue sin resolver. En este extracto del Watch List 2022 - Actualización de Otoño, Crisis Group explica lo que la UE y sus Estados miembros pueden hacer para facilitar el progreso en las negociaciones entre el gobierno y la oposición.
Crisis Group experts talk in this Twitter Space about what can be done to better protect Venezuelan migrants fleeing to Colombia from exploitation by criminal armed groups. The discussion was hosted by Bram Ebus, consultant for Latin America, Mariano de Alba, our senior advocacy advisor for Latin America and Glaeldys González, Giustra fellow for Latin America.
En años recientes, 2,5 millones de venezolanos han llegado a Colombia en busca de trabajo y refugio de la crisis socio-económica de su país. Pero hay peligros que les esperan, incluida la posibilidad de caer en garras del crimen organizado. El cambio de gobierno en Colombia es una oportunidad para generar cambios que hagan que los migrantes estén a salvo.
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