Mexico’s state institutions have been bedevilled for decades by widespread corruption and powerful transnational criminal organisations. Crime and the “war on drugs” have destabilised the country and fuelled violence; meanwhile, thousands of refugees and migrants flee through Mexico from similar volatility in Central America. Crisis Group focuses on addressing criminal violence, institutional corruption, trafficking and migration. Our aim is to help solve challenges to security posed by global criminal networks, local armed groups and the elusiveness of state rule.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Pauline Bax and Falko Ernst about recent elections in India, South Africa and Mexico and what they mean for the countries’ policies at home and abroad.
Claudia Sheinbaum won presidential election wracked by record levels of violence; President López Obrador set to enact controversial reforms before stepping down.
Claudia Sheinbaum won election amid record levels of violence. Ruling MORENA party candidate Claudia Sheinbaum 2 June won election with about 60% of vote, becoming Mexico’s first woman president. Chief opponent Xóchitl Gálvez 13 June formally contested results, alleging use of state apparatus to support Sheinbaum, unequal competition and organised crime involvement, though allegation unlikely to affect result. According to 4 June report by civil society organisation Causa en Común, these elections were most violent in nation’s modern history: thirty-seven candidates or aspiring candidates were assassinated during campaign period, while two voters were killed at polling stations.
Criminal violence plagued multiple states. Insecurity remained rampant, partly as criminal groups sought leverage in upcoming negotiations with new govt. Notably, armed assailants 3 June killed mayor of Cotija town, Michoacán state; 17 June killed newly-elected mayor in Copala town, Guerrero state; 22 June killed outgoing mayor of Malinaltepec city, Guerrero state. Violence in Chiapas intensified amid rivalry between Jalisco Cartel – New Generation (CNJG) and Sinaloa Cartel, with clashes 8-9 June forcing over 4,000 people to flee Tila town. Massacre in León city, Guanajuato state, 9 June left six people dead; CNJG denied role in attack as officials 14 June announced arrest of five National Guard agents for potential involvement.
López Obrador vowed to press ahead with controversial reforms. Outgoing President LópezObrador 7 June announced plans to capitalise on Sept overlap with new MORENA supermajority in Congress to push through constitutional reforms. Among other things, López Obrador plans to introduce elections for judicial figures, dismantle autonomous public bodies and strengthen role of Armed Forces through National Guard; critics argue they could undermine checks and balances. Meanwhile, change to Amnesty Law enacted 14 June gave president authority to grant amnesty for any crime, including human rights violations.
Migration flows persisted at high levels. National Institute of Migration 16 June reported nearly 1.4mn irregular migrants traveling through Mexico Jan-May 2024. Inter-American Commission on Human Rights 13 June criticised use of armed forces in migration control.
Criminal violence [in Mexico] has become much more difficult to resolve today than six years ago. ... You can't expect a quick fix to the situation, it's too deeply ingra...
En este evento en línea, Falko Ernst, analista senior de México para International Crisis Group, habla sobre los retos a los que se enfrentará la nueva presidenta de México con las expertas Gabriela Warkentin y Lisa Sánchez.
Durante las últimas siete décadas, más de 100 000 mexicanos han desaparecido sin que se haya vuelto a saber de ellos. La experta de Crisis Group, Angélica Ospina, informa sobre las intrépidas buscadoras que exigen respuestas del Estado y lideran sus propias investigaciones para encontrar a sus seres queridos.
Los votantes mexicanos irán a las urnas este 2 de junio para elegir a un nuevo presidente. En estas preguntas y respuestas, el experto de Crisis Group Falko Ernst explica quién tiene más posibilidades de ganar, los desafíos de seguridad que enfrentará la ganadora y lo que los resultados pueden significar para las relaciones entre EE. UU. y México.
El presidente saliente de México ha desplegado más militares que nunca para combatir el crimen. Pero los niveles de violencia siguen siendo altos. Su sucesora debe limitar el rol de los militares en la seguridad pública mientras trabaja para romper los vínculos de funcionarios estatales con grupos criminales y permitir una mejor seguridad ciudadana liderada por civiles.
En México, las redes sociales son una de las principales fuentes de información sobre crímenes violentos, y muchos lugares son demasiado peligrosos para los periodistas. Pero mucha información es inexacta o engañosa, y es compartida por los grupos criminales. Las plataformas deberían adaptar sus políticas para minimizar los riesgos.
Cada vez más mujeres se unen a grupos criminales que disputan territorios en México, lo que aumenta los peligros que estas organizaciones representan. Para frenar esta tendencia y ayudar a las integrantes a dejar estos grupos, las autoridades deben cooperar con la sociedad civil para ofrecer alternativas de subsistencia.
El crimen organizado en México se ha vuelto local, debido a la fragmentación de los carteles en subgrupos que luchan por el control de territorios cada vez más pequeños. Al mismo tiempo, el gobierno federal ha marginado a las alcaldías de sus competencias en materia de seguridad. Es necesario volver a empoderar a los funcionarios municipales para que protejan a la población.
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