Algeria faces interlocking political and socio-economic challenges three years after a long-awaited presidential transition. A largely peaceful protest movement called the Hirak – prompted by the ex-president's attempt to prolong his tenure but driven by deeper grievances – filled the streets on Fridays for much of the period 2019-2021. The Hirak has faded, but its goals are unrealised, and renewed unrest is an ever present possibility. Tensions with Morocco, including over Western Sahara, also loom, threatening to roil North Africa. Through fieldwork and engagement with senior officials, Crisis Group works to enhance Algeria’s contribution to stability and conflict resolution in a troubled neighbourhood.
Le chef de l’Etat algérien, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, a convoqué des élections législatives anticipées qui se tiendront le 12 juin. Dans ce Q&A, l’expert de Crisis Group Michael Ayari explique pourquoi ce scrutin pourrait marquer l’entrée dans une nouvelle phase d’instabilité.
Political opposition emerged to President Tebboune’s anticipated run for second term; meeting with Libya and Tunisia spurred talk of new regional grouping.
President of centrist party criticised President Tebboune’s possible re-election bid. Ahead of 7 Sept presidential election, Soufiane Djilali, president of moderate centrist Jil Jadid party, 8 April said under Tebboune “political life has been anaesthetised”, and indicated it would be preferable if president did not run for second term; Tebboune yet to officially confirm his candidacy amid reports of internal splits within security forces over who to support.
Algerian, Libyan and Tunisian heads of state held high-level discussions. Amid continued Algiers tensions with Rabat, Tebboune 22 April met Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed and Libyan Head of Presidential Council Mohamed al-Menfi in Tunisian capital Tunis as part of new effort to convene every three months as group of three, raising prospect of new bloc of central North African states as alternative to pre-existing body Arab Maghreb Union that includes Mauritania and Morocco. However, al-Menfi 24 April sent envoys to Mauritania and Morocco emphasising need to include both in regional bloc cooperation, dampening attempts to create new grouping.
Tensions increased with United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Niger. Strains with UAE remained high following Tebboune’s 30 March televised interview in which he indirectly accused Emiratis of “stirring trouble” in conflicts in Libya, Mali and Sudan; mistrust further fuelled by UAE state-owned company Taqa 17 April beginning discussions to take over Spanish gas company Naturgy that has 49% stake in Medgaz pipeline linking Algeria to Spain, amid fears UAE would gain leverage over Algeria and its economy. Meanwhile, tensions also increased with Niger over migration flows; Niamey 3 April summoned Algerian ambassador with Algerian authorities following day responding in kind.
In another important development. Govt remained focused on non-alignment, hosting Russian and NATO officials 13 and 17 April respectively.
Morocco cannot follow Algeria in terms of military spending, so a military alliance with Israel is a way to balance the power with Algeria.
We're seeing a diplomatic war [over Western Sahara], where both sides [Algeria and Morocco] are resorting to anything short of open conflict.
Le 1er novembre 2020, le référendum constitutionnel sur lequel comptait le pouvoir algérien pour avancer vers des réformes a été éclipsé par l’hospitalisation du président Tebboune. Dans ce Q&A, notre analyste principal pour l’Algérie et la Tunisie, Michael Ayari, anticipe les risques de cette situation.
Les retombées économiques et sociales de la crise de Covid-19 et les mesures de confinement risquent de multiplier les défis auxquels l’Algérie est confrontée. Les autorités devraient desserrer leur étau sur la contestation populaire et établir un dialogue économique avec le hirak.
A new wave of popular protests has jolted an already deeply unsettled Arab world. Nine years ago, uprisings across the region signalled a rejection of corrupt autocratic rule that failed to deliver jobs, basic services and reliable infrastructure. Yet regime repression and the protests’ lack of organisation, leadership and unified vision thwarted hopes of a new order. As suddenly as the uprisings erupted, as quickly they descended into violence. What followed was either brutal civil war or regime retrenchment. Tunisia stands as the sole, still fragile, exception.
Une vague de protestations a mis fin à vingt ans de règne de Bouteflika amenant l’Algérie à la croisée des chemins. Le régime devrait lancer des réformes substantielles et entamer un dialogue avec les représentants des manifestations afin d’éviter un cycle de protestation de masse et de répression policière entraînant chaos et violence.
Une série de protestations contre « le mandat de trop » s’est emparée du pays depuis l’annonce de la candidature du président Bouteflika à l’élection d'avril. Dans ce questions-réponses, notre analyste Michaël Ayari, de retour d’Algérie, se penche sur les ressorts d’une mobilisation inédite et examine les scénarios possibles.
En Algérie, la paralysie politique fait obstacle aux réformes économiques indispensables pour libérer le pays de sa dépendance aux hydrocarbures. Pour éviter une nouvelle période d’instabilité et une crise économique, le gouvernement devrait faire un effort de transparence sur l’état des finances publiques et améliorer les perspectives pour les jeunes.
Refugee camps in Tindouf, Algeria, have long been run by the Polisario movement, which seeks an independent state in Western Sahara, also claimed by Morocco. But a new generation of Sahrawi refugees is growing fractious as aid dwindles and diplomatic efforts fail to deliver a settlement.
Tandis que des vagues de contestation ont touché depuis 2013 le Sud de l’Algérie, riche en hydrocarbures, les autorités ont maintenu une paix précaire via des subventions, la répression et des stratégies de maintien de l’ordre. Pour apaiser les tensions, l’Etat doit renforcer la transparence, communiquer avec les manifestants et résoudre les problèmes de gouvernance sous-jacents.
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