June 2024

Rapid Support Forces (RSF) overran Sennar’s capital and could capture entire state, expanding conflict to previously peaceful parts of Sudan; fighting in and around North Darfur’s capital El Fasher intensified further. 

RSF overran Sennar’s capital and could capture entire state. RSF rapidly advanced into Sennar state, with paramilitary 29 June storming capital Sinja, seizing military base and forcing thousands to flee; RSF could take over entire state in coming weeks, expanding hostilities to previously peaceful parts of country and bringing conflict closer to Gedaref and Blue Nile states, as well as Ethiopian border. 

Battle for El Fasher raged, increasingly involving ethnic militias. RSF continued to besiege El Fasher, last stronghold of Sudanese army (SAF) in North Darfur, launching offensives from multiple fronts in and around city with growing support from Arab militias. Meanwhile, SAF and allied Darfuri armed groups (which are mobilising mainly from Zaghawa community) intensified airstrikes and offensives in RSF-controlled eastern and south-eastern parts of El Fasher, as well as in RSF strongholds and Arab villages around North Darfur. Battle for city could lead to large-scale massacres along ethnic lines, while prolonged siege threatens to worsen already catastrophic humanitarian crisis. UN Security Council 13 June adopted resolution urging immediate halt to RSF’s siege of El Fasher, cessation of hostilities in area and unrestricted movement of civilians. 

Violent clashes continued elsewhere. In Gezira state, RSF forces 5 June attacked Wad Al-Noura village, resulting in nearly 100 deaths; RSF claimed they engaged civilian-clad militias, while locals alleged indiscriminate killing of civilians. In West Kordofan, RSF 20 June took control of state capital, Al Fula, after intense fighting with SAF. Fighting in June also persisted in Bari city south of capital Khartoum.

AU set up new committee to facilitate talks between warring parties. AU Peace and Security Council 21 June met to discuss Sudan, leading to formation of Presidential Committee led by President Museveni of Uganda and comprising one leader from each African sub-region, whose aim is to facilitate meeting between SAF leader, Gen. Abdel Fatah al-Burhan, and RSF leader, Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo “Hemedti”. 

Military denied supporting Congolese rebel group; govt cracked down on alleged internal financial misconduct. 

Allegations of support to Congolese rebels strained ties with DR Congo. Military 13 June reiterated denials that it was clandestinely supporting Congolese rebel group M23 after leaked UN report early June contained such allegations; concerns grew that, amid reports, Congolese govt could look to end military cooperation with Uganda and joint operations against Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces rebels in eastern DRC. Meanwhile, govt continued rapprochement with Rwanda after late May meeting of military officials in Rwanda’s Nyagatare town to discuss cross-border security issues.

Authorities launched high-profile arrests on corruption charges. Following UK April and U.S. May sanctions on various politicians over corruption, govt in June launched own anti-corruption campaign. Police 11 June arrested three MPs for allegedly soliciting bribes to manipulate 2024-2025 national budget and 19 June arrested another two over mismanagement of $36mn earmarked for compensating cooperative societies. President Museveni 18 June announced expanded anti-corruption campaign targeting local administration-level theft of public funds. 

Govt temporarily averted potential strike amid persistent fiscal policy discontent. Local traders threatening two-month strike agreed to re-schedule meeting with govt called to resolve grievances on new tax policies and additional taxes from 20 June to 31 July. Meanwhile, govt 13 June presented 2024-2025 budget with security forces bolstered through 25% salary increase – in part to address discontent among lower-ranking military personnel and amid extensive recruitment drive – while oil and gas sector’s budget allocation more than doubled.  

Ruling coalition secured majority in parliament in May legislative elections, but political climate remained tense with reports of widespread fraud.

Political tensions remained high in immediate aftermath of 29 May legislative elections. Notably, demonstrations 30 May broke out in Tsihombe municipality, Androy district, with electoral office set on fire as opposition denounced apparent irregularities in vote such as ballot stuffing; country’s largest electoral observation mission, Safidy Observatory, 1 June denounced “worrying incidents” during polls including distribution of money and food to voters by candidates, and questioned neutrality of National Independent Electoral Commission (CENI); candidates from President Rajoelina’s Irmar political alliance same day accused opposition of paying for votes. After CENI provisional results 11 June showed Irmar had won relative majority, High Constitutional Court 27 June rejected most opposition complaints and gave three additional seats to govt coalition, announcing Irmar had secured 84 out of 163 parliamentary seats, while main opposition alliance of two former presidents won 22. Meanwhile, authorities 17 June released under judicial supervision independent MP who had filed complaint about election-day irregularities and who police had arrested 31 May for allegedly organising protests in Tsihombe.

Police arrested and charged main opposition party interim leader and dozens of supporters; President Mnangagwa’s remarks sparked diplomatic spat with Zambia. 

Police arrested opposition members at gathering. Police 16 June arrested at least 80 youth members of opposition Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC), including interim party leader Jameson Timba, who gathered at Timba’s private residence in capital Harare; authorities next day charged 77 detainees with “gathering with intent to promote public violence and disorderly conduct”; as detainees appeared in court 18 June, Tinashe Chinopfukutwa from Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights reported his clients had been abused upon arrest. Harare court 27 June denied bail to defendants, as police reportedly beat dozens and arrested several CCC supporters protesting outside. Rights group Amnesty International 19 June called for “immediate release” of detainees and investigations into allegations of torture. 

Mnangagwa railed against neighbours in leaked video, causing diplomatic spat. Video emerged of Mnangagwa accusing Zambia and Malawi of colluding with U.S. “both in terms of security and in terms of financial support” to isolate govt, and asking Russian President Vladimir Putin for support including in defence matters; meeting between both leaders took place 13 June on sidelines of St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Zambian FM Haimbe 20 June rejected suggestions as “unwarranted attacks” and called on AU and Southern African regional body SADC to mediate talks with Mnangagwa’s govt; U.S. 27 June said claims it was militarising Zambia “absolutely false”.

Jihadists launched one of deadliest attacks on military to date, amid reports of mutiny attempt within army, raising significant stability concerns.

Major assault shook military as security situation remained perilous. In what could amount to deadliest attack on army since country began anti-jihadist operations in 2015, al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) 11 June raided military base in Mansila town, Sahel region, near Niger border; JNIM claimed to have killed 107 soldiers, while local sources reported over 100 dead and others taken hostage. Attack reportedly fuelled divisions within military, leading to speculation of threats to regime’s grip on power (see below). Security forces and militants conducted other deadly attacks during month, with high toll on civilians. Notably, JNIM 6 June raided Dasse village, Boucle du Mouhoun region, reportedly killing 63; group next day killed around 30 civilians and military auxiliaries (VDPs) in Kossodougou village, East region. In North region, soldiers 11 June allegedly killed around 24 civilians in Ouahigouya area, Yatenga province.

Rumours of mutiny attempt surfaced. Artillery fire 12 June hit state television headquarters near presidential residence in capital Ouagadougou, injuring two; military authorities stated incident was mistaken launch by soldier. Media reports, however, alleged previous day’s Mansila attack had provoked mutiny in army, which President Capt. Traoré 20 June denied on state television. Govt also refuted news outlet Radio France Internationale’s claims that dozens of Malian soldiers and Russian Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) paramilitaries 18 June arrived in Ouagadougou. 

Govt continued to limit international press. French network TV5Monde 18 June aired interview with Newton Ahmed Barry, journalist and former electoral commission president, where he openly criticised regime’s inability to combat jihadism since taking power in Sept 2022. Govt same day announced six-month suspension of TV5Monde for “intention to deceive public opinion”.

Diplomatic relations deepened with Russia, Sweden closed embassy. Russian FM Lavrov 4-5 June visited Ouagadougou, emphasised Moscow will continue to supply military equipment and training. Meanwhile, Sweden 20 June announced closure of embassies in both Ouagadougou and Malian capital Bamako and establishment of new embassy covering regional activity in Senegalese capital Dakar.

Jockeying between major political players continued ahead of 2025 presidential election.

Figures from ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) continued to call for President Ouattara to stand as candidate in Oct 2025 presidential election; during speech to Congress, Ouattara 18 June praised his govt’s achievements and country’s economic growth under his rule, but did not clarify whether he intended to run for fourth term. Main opposition party Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) leader Tidjane Thiam 22 June began national tour with rally in Soubré city, Nawa region, criticising govt’s record and calling on PDCI activists to encourage voter registration across country.

Junta kept tight control over political parties and media, while forcing aside former military ally; Russia sought further influence over Conakry.

Junta tightened control over political parties and media. Govt 19 June began evaluation of political parties’ compliance with rules on their activities including financing, only one year after last assessment; in lead up, opposition Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) VP Fodé Oussou Fofana 6 June described process as “way of keeping busy, of distracting, of finding alibis to avoid getting to essential issues” and voiced fears govt might ban main opposition parties, while UFDG leader and former PM Cellou Dalein Diallo same day expressed doubts about junta’s intention to restore constitutional order. Media regulatory body 13 June suspended two of its commissioners after they accused President Col. Doumbouya of giving money to media owners to gain favours; latter same day filed defamation complaint against suspended commissioners. Against backdrop of restrictions on press freedom, Guinean Social Forces Forum, comprising civil society actors, 22 June called for civil disobedience and strike action until restoration of media rights and release of jailed journalists.

Authorities imprisoned former army chief of staff Sadiba Koulibaly, who later died. Military court 14 June sentenced Koulibaly, previously prominent Doumbouya ally, to five years in prison for “desertion and illegal possession of weapons” and removed him from army; junta same day dismissed 40 officers and non-commissioned officers for desertion. Govt 25 June announced Koulibaly had died in prison of cardiac arrest, but lawyers’ union 27 June called for independent investigation as much remained unclear about circumstances surrounding death. Case raised speculation that ruling elite may be concerned about internal discord and threats to Doumbouya’s position.

Govt enhanced ties with Russia. Russian FM Lavrov 3 June began Africa tour with visit to capital Conakry, meeting Doumbouya and FM Kouyaté; both sides expressed commitment to strengthening security, diplomatic and economic cooperation, although Doumbouya also said “Guinea remains an open, sovereign country that cooperates with everyone”.

Industrial action compelled authorities to back down over union leader’s arrest; tensions rose among ruling powers.

Union action forced govt to reverse arrest, but civil liberties crackdown continued. Authorities 5 June arrested Hamadoun Bah, head of banking union and deputy leader of country’s largest union, on forgery charges amid union dispute; unions criticised arrest, which some see as likely tied to Bah’s criticism of justice system. Following arrest, bank and gas stations 6-10 June held strikes backed by other unions, demanding unionist’s release. After apparent intervention by President Col. Goïta, authorities 10 June freed Bah. Meanwhile, imprisoned former head of state security Kassoum Goïta and former colonel Alpha Yaya Sangaré remained missing; unidentified individuals 31 May abducted both men from cells. Security forces 8-27 June detained journalist after he covered small anti-govt demonstration in capital Bamako. Authorities 20 June arrested 11 political leaders at private meeting of alliance of political parties and civil society groups, following April suspension of political parties’ activities. 

Rifts between military authorities and civilian PM exposed. PM Maïga 18 June called for continued support to Goïta; in apparent sign of dissatisfaction, however, PM also endorsed M5-RFP political movement’s May statement criticising removal of M5-RFP ministers from office in July 2023 and military’s unilateral decision to prolong transition; move came after late May arrest of chargé de mission at Maïga’s office over his role in statement. Political tensions with opposition continued after govt-in-exile led by former supreme court lawyer Mohamed Chérif Koné formed late May, and Bamako court late May refused to dissolve opposition SADI party led by exiled activist Oumar Mariko; capacity for Koné and Mariko to mobilise major domestic opposition to military authorities remained remote.

Violence persisted across north and centre. Al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims 5 June claimed to have killed Islamic State Sahel Province commander in Fitili area, Gao region (north). Military 13 June reported repelling ambush near Douentza town, Douentza region (centre).

In another important development. Sweden 20 June announced closure of embassies in Bamako and Burkinabé capital Ouagadougou, establishing embassy covering regional activity in Senegalese capital Dakar. 

Tensions with Benin remained high, while armed groups supporting deposed President Bazoum launched attacks; govt continued reorganising foreign alliances.

Diplomatic standoff with Benin continued with arrest of Nigerien oil workers. Authorities during month persisted with refusal to reopen land border with Benin, while oil exports through shared pipeline continued to face blockages from both govts. Amid tensions, Beninese authorities 5 June arrested five Nigerien nationals working for Chinese-Nigerien operator of pipeline (WAPCo), alleging they fraudulently attempted to access oil terminal and accusing them of spying. Niamey next day blocked oil exports in protest and 8 June reiterated allegations French forces in northern Benin were training “terrorists” to destabilise Niger. After Cotonou 17 June gave three of the detainees 18-month suspended sentence, two former Beninese presidents 25 June travelled to Niger in attempt to ease tensions, though oil exports remained on hold (see Benin). 

Supporters of former president Bazoum launched attacks. Patriotic Liberation Front, pro-Bazoum armed group, 12 and 16 June attacked Niger-Benin pipeline in Dosso region, killing six soldiers in first attack and reportedly putting it out of commission in second; another group supporting Bazoum, Patriotic Front for Justice, 21 June kidnapped regional official and four others, reportedly killing another, in Bilma city, Agadez region; both groups called on China to cancel oil exports until Bazoum freed. Meanwhile, supreme court 14 June lifted Bazoum’s immunity in treason case.

Jihadist violence persisted in Diffa and Tillabery regions. In Diffa, military 11 June reportedly clashed with Boko Haram near Bagara village, six militants killed. In Tillabery, Islamic State Sahel Province 9 June killed 24 civilians in two attacks in Tera department, while militants likely affiliated with al-Qaeda 25 June killed at least 20 soldiers and one civilian near Tassia village.

Govt continued military and international realignment. Russian Deputy Defence Minister 3 June met President Gen. Tiani and PM Zeine to discuss defence and energy cooperation. Withdrawal of U.S. troops formally began 7 June, to be completed by 15 Sept. Meanwhile, authorities 2o June revoked French company Orano’s operating permit for uranium mine.

Insecurity remained widespread as jihadist, bandit and separatist violence persisted despite security forces’ operations against armed groups.

Army reported gains against jihadists in North East, but groups remained threat. Govt’s “clearance campaign” against Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Boko Haram militants around Lake Chad and Sambisa Forest in Borno state made some gains including troops 2-6 June raiding four ISWAP camps in Bama, Marte and Ngala areas, reportedly killing over 100 insurgents; soldiers 15 June destroyed multiple ISWAP camps around southern shore of Lake Chad, rescuing 34 women and children held captive by group. ISWAP, however, continued attacks on civilian population in north east of Borno in attempt to reassert control. Notably, militants 10 June abducted unconfirmed numbers of travellers along Maiduguri-Damaturu highway. Three suspected female suicide bombers 29 June attacked several locations in Gwoza town, near Cameroon border, killing 32 people and wounding 42.

Banditry remained widespread in North West and North Central zones. Security forces continued ground and air campaign against armed groups including Kaduna state govt 13 June saying it had killed notorious bandit leader alias Buharin Yadi and almost 40 others in Giwa and Sabuwa areas, while airstrikes 15 June killed over 80 armed group members in Katsina state’s Faskari area. Despite military operations, armed groups continued attacks and abductions including in Kaduna, Katsina, Niger and Sokoto states. Notably, in Katsina, gunmen 4 June killed at least 30 in several villages in Dutsin-Ma and Safana areas, while in Kankara area bandits 9 June killed 26 people including four police officers and kidnapped dozens in two villages. In Sokoto, armed group 16 June attacked village in Gwadabawa area, killing six and abducting over 100. 

South East recorded uptick in violence between security forces and separatists. In Abia state, troops 8 June raided camp of separatist group Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) armed wing Eastern Security Network (ESN) in Arochukwu area, killing six. Authorities blamed IPOB/ESN for 11 June killing of two police officers and one civilian in Ikeduru area, Imo state.