This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Jean-Hervé Jezequel, Crisis Group’s Sahel director, to discuss Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso’s withdrawal from the West African regional bloc ECOWAS, their fight against al-Qaeda and ISIS-linked militants and the future of military rule in the Sahel.
Tensions with Benin remained high, while armed groups supporting deposed President Bazoum launched attacks; govt continued reorganising foreign alliances.
Diplomatic standoff with Benin continued with arrest of Nigerien oil workers. Authorities during month persisted with refusal to reopen land border with Benin, while oil exports through shared pipeline continued to face blockages from both govts. Amid tensions, Beninese authorities 5 June arrested five Nigerien nationals working for Chinese-Nigerien operator of pipeline (WAPCo), alleging they fraudulently attempted to access oil terminal and accusing them of spying. Niamey next day blocked oil exports in protest and 8 June reiterated allegations French forces in northern Benin were training “terrorists” to destabilise Niger. After Cotonou 17 June gave three of the detainees 18-month suspended sentence, two former Beninese presidents 25 June travelled to Niger in attempt to ease tensions, though oil exports remained on hold (see Benin).
Supporters of former president Bazoum launched attacks. Patriotic Liberation Front, pro-Bazoum armed group, 12 and 16 June attacked Niger-Benin pipeline in Dosso region, killing six soldiers in first attack and reportedly putting it out of commission in second; another group supporting Bazoum, Patriotic Front for Justice, 21 June kidnapped regional official and four others, reportedly killing another, in Bilma city, Agadez region; both groups called on China to cancel oil exports until Bazoum freed. Meanwhile, supreme court 14 June lifted Bazoum’s immunity in treason case.
Jihadist violence persisted in Diffa and Tillabery regions. In Diffa, military 11 June reportedly clashed with Boko Haram near Bagara village, six militants killed. In Tillabery, Islamic State Sahel Province 9 June killed 24 civilians in two attacks in Tera department, while militants likely affiliated with al-Qaeda 25 June killed at least 20 soldiers and one civilian near Tassia village.
Govt continued military and international realignment. Russian Deputy Defence Minister 3 June met President Gen. Tiani and PM Zeine to discuss defence and energy cooperation. Withdrawal of U.S. troops formally began 7 June, to be completed by 15 Sept. Meanwhile, authorities 2o June revoked French company Orano’s operating permit for uranium mine.
Western powers have enjoyed quite a bit of leeway in how they influenced and meddled in local affairs [in Niger].
[The coup in Niger marks] the beginning of the end of a sequence of French troops withdrawing from the central Sahel.
If an ECOWAS invasion [of Niger] happened, and there was a regional war, I think that would really put the [U.S.] Defense Department in a tricky position.
Les sanctions imposées au Niger par la Communauté économique des États de l’Afrique de l’Ouest après le coup d’État de juillet affectent avant tout les civils. Sous l’impulsion du Nigéria, le bloc régional devrait réviser ces mesures pour cibler plus étroitement les généraux responsables d’avoir mis à mal la démocratie.
L'Afrique de l'Ouest a été témoin d'un nouveau coup d'État, cette fois au Niger. Dans cet extrait de l’édition d’automne de la Watch List 2023, Crisis Group encourage l'UE et ses États membres à soutenir les efforts régionaux visant à désamorcer les tensions avec la junte nigérienne.
Why the U.S. government will find no easy answers in the Sahel's coup belt
Depuis le 26 juillet 2023, un groupe d’officiers supérieurs nigériens ont annoncé à la télévision nationale avoir mis fin au régime de Mohamed Bazoum, élu démocratiquement en 2021. Dans ce Q&A, les analystes de Crisis Group expliquent les raisons et les enjeux de cette tentative de coup d’État.
In this interview, Jean-Hervé Jezequel, Crisis Group’s Project Director for the Sahel, reflects on the ongoing crisis in the Sahel region, the struggle against expanding jihadist groups, and compares the approaches of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.
Des insurgés se sont implantés dans une importante réserve naturelle partagée entre le Bénin, le Burkina Faso et le Niger. Ils représentent un danger croissant pour les écosystèmes locaux et pour les populations qui vivent autour du parc. Les trois pays devraient collaborer plus étroitement afin de contenir cette menace.
Une série de massacres dans la région de Tillabéri, au Niger, fait craindre un conflit civil plus large. La connotationethnique de ces crimes est particulièrement inquiétante. Les autorités devraient privilégier la protection des civils avant que des groupes d’auto-défense ne se développent pour faire face à la situation.
Dans le sud-ouest du Niger, le banditisme armé pourrait renforcer la méfiance entre les communautés et favoriser des insurrections susceptibles d’être exploitées par les jihadistes. Les autorités nigériennes devraient agir pour remédier aux injustices subies par les communautés vivant de l’élevage, initier des dialogues intercommunautaires et mieux encadrer les groupes d’autodéfense embryonnaires.
Depuis l’envoi de ses forces au Mali en 2013, la France a soutenu les efforts de lutte contre les insurgés islamistes au Sahel. La menace jihadiste s’est pourtant accrue. Paris et ses partenaires devraient réorienter leur approche militaire afin d’améliorer la gouvernance dans la région.
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