June 2024

Detention of Nigerien nationals ratcheted up bilateral tensions; threat of jihadist spillover from neighbouring countries remained high.

Diplomatic standoff with Niger continued with arrest of Nigerien oil workers. Bilateral tensions persisted as Niger refused to reopen its land border and oil exports through shared pipeline faced blockages from both govts. Authorities 5 June arrested five Nigeriens working for Chinese-Nigerien operator of pipeline (WAPCo), alleging they fraudulently attempted to access oil terminal and accusing them of spying; in response, Niamey next day blocked oil exports from their side and 8 June denounced “kidnapping” of workers (see Niger). Govt 13 June released two of those detained but 17 June convicted other three, including WAPCo deputy director general, of falsifying data, giving them 18-month suspended sentence; relatively lenient sentence seen by many as attempt at compromise while former presidents Bony Yayi and Soglo 25 June travelled to Niger and met Nigerien President Gen. Tiani and PM Zeine in attempt to ease tensions; oil exports, however, remained on hold. 

Jihadist violence continued in north. Pendjari National Park and others including W Park remained vulnerable to jihadist infiltration from Burkina Faso and Niger despite ongoing deployment of troops in area. Notably, gunmen 4 June killed seven soldiers in ambush near Tanguieta town in Pendjari park in Atacora department near Burkina Faso border.

Jihadists launched one of deadliest attacks on military to date, amid reports of mutiny attempt within army, raising significant stability concerns.

Major assault shook military as security situation remained perilous. In what could amount to deadliest attack on army since country began anti-jihadist operations in 2015, al-Qaeda-affiliated Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) 11 June raided military base in Mansila town, Sahel region, near Niger border; JNIM claimed to have killed 107 soldiers, while local sources reported over 100 dead and others taken hostage. Attack reportedly fuelled divisions within military, leading to speculation of threats to regime’s grip on power (see below). Security forces and militants conducted other deadly attacks during month, with high toll on civilians. Notably, JNIM 6 June raided Dasse village, Boucle du Mouhoun region, reportedly killing 63; group next day killed around 30 civilians and military auxiliaries (VDPs) in Kossodougou village, East region. In North region, soldiers 11 June allegedly killed around 24 civilians in Ouahigouya area, Yatenga province.

Rumours of mutiny attempt surfaced. Artillery fire 12 June hit state television headquarters near presidential residence in capital Ouagadougou, injuring two; military authorities stated incident was mistaken launch by soldier. Media reports, however, alleged previous day’s Mansila attack had provoked mutiny in army, which President Capt. Traoré 20 June denied on state television. Govt also refuted news outlet Radio France Internationale’s claims that dozens of Malian soldiers and Russian Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group) paramilitaries 18 June arrived in Ouagadougou. 

Govt continued to limit international press. French network TV5Monde 18 June aired interview with Newton Ahmed Barry, journalist and former electoral commission president, where he openly criticised regime’s inability to combat jihadism since taking power in Sept 2022. Govt same day announced six-month suspension of TV5Monde for “intention to deceive public opinion”.

Diplomatic relations deepened with Russia, Sweden closed embassy. Russian FM Lavrov 4-5 June visited Ouagadougou, emphasised Moscow will continue to supply military equipment and training. Meanwhile, Sweden 20 June announced closure of embassies in both Ouagadougou and Malian capital Bamako and establishment of new embassy covering regional activity in Senegalese capital Dakar.

Amid continued political tensions, govt clamped down on press while security forces’ abuses remained prevalent.

Political tensions remained high ahead of 2025 legislative elections. As electoral commission continued preparations for polls, opposition Frodebu party – primarily ethnic Hutu party that held power briefly in 1993 – 2 June held meeting in capital Gitega; conference’s combative tone toward govt suggested party may attempt to compete strongly in next year’s polls, despite widespread political repression. Meanwhile, Supreme Court 27 June upheld life sentence of former PM Bunyoni on several charges including attempting to overthrow govt, amid reports authorities may fear his continued influence.

Govt escalated media intimidation and harassment. Political reporter for independent Iwacu outlet 4 June reported he escaped attempted arrest by two policemen in largest city Bujumbura; Iwacu 6 June said it had received warning from press regulator against breaching media guidelines after series of critical articles including on economy. Regulator 11-12 June also prohibited rebroadcast of radio debate featuring opposition leader Agathon Rwasa that focussed on national budget. Human rights group Ligue Iteka 14 June called on govt to stop harassment and intimidation of press and journalists. 

Alleged abuses by security forces remained widespread. Targeting of those linked to opposition figure Rwasa continued to cause concern after series of late May arrests and beatings by police and ruling-party youth wing Imbonerakure of Rwasa supporters in Cankuzo, Rutana and Ruyigi provinces.

In other important developments. Amid economic crisis and worsening fuel and power supply, govt 13 June passed two-year budget that observers saw as overly optimistic; National Assembly president same day threatened to reprimand MPs commenting on current crisis. Leaked UN report early June alleged Rwanda has increased backing to RED-Tabara rebel group, in line with govt’s allegations. SOS Media Burundi 25 June reported military court in Rutana 18-22 June imprisoned or fined hundreds of soldiers for allegedly refusing to fight M23 rebels alongside Congolese army in eastern DRC.

Instability remained widespread in North West (NW) and South West (SW) regions as Anglophone crisis continued, attracting increasing domestic and international attention. 

Govt and Ambazonia rebels continued to clash. Separatists 5 June ambushed and killed municipal councilor in Zhoa commune, Menchum division (NW). Combined militias under Ambazonia Peoples Liberation Council 8 June ambushed army patrol between Muyuka and Kumba towns, with unspecified casualties. Clashes between govt forces and separatists 14-18 June in Ekondo-Titi, Mundemba and Isangele areas in Ndian division (SW) caused unknown casualties. Gunmen 17 June attacked checkpoint at entrance to Buea city (SW) killing at least one civilian. Conflict took increasing toll on taxi drivers; separatists banned taxis in Bamenda city (NW), burning down at least seven vehicles during standoff partly in response to govt’s 31 May suspension of night-time circulation of motorcycles to limit gunmen’s movements. Some drivers and bike riders in Bamenda 21 June protested against separatist violence. Meanwhile, amid confusion over one separatist faction’s call for all yellow taxis in Anglophone areas to switch to blue and white colours of Ambazonia flag, bitter wrangling erupted, with many faction leaders condemning policy and violence against taxis.

International actors sounded alarm over Cameroon’s conflicts. NGO Norwegian Refugee Council 4 June ranked Cameroon’s displacement crisis second most neglected worldwide, highlighting prolonged Anglophone conflict and jihadist insurgency in Far North (see below). At UN Security Council briefing 10 June, Russia and Japan expressed concern at violence in NW and SW, France called on parties to Anglophone crisis to pursue dialogue while South Korea called for Cameroonian-led conflict resolution initiative in Anglophone regions.  

Jihadist violence persisted in Far North. Multinational Joint Task Force continued Operation Lake Sanity to reclaim territory. In Mayo-Sava division, insurgents 6 June killed one soldier near Mora town, while troops 15 June killed two Boko Haram combatants in Amchide town. In Mayo-Tsanaga division, militants 12 June clashed with national army in Koza town, leaving one dead on each side, and soldiers 13-14 June arrested 12 Boko Haram fighters in Moskota town. Islamic State West Africa Province fighters 17 June abducted local head of fishermen’s association in Chahack area, Logone-et-Chari division. 

Govt continued campaigns against rebels and strengthened its political hand ahead of local elections; foreign nationals faced repression. 

Large-scale offensives against rebels continued. Govt, supported by Russian paramilitary Africa Corps (previously Wagner Group) and ethnic Azandé militia, continued operations that began late May against Fulani-led Unity for Peace in Central African Republic (UPC) in Haut-Mbomou prefecture; army drove UPC from area it had controlled for five years, captured two key leaders and by 8 June seized approximately 100 weapons and disarmed 80 UPC soldiers. Offensive raised concerns over increased insecurity in Haut-Mbomou as UPC fighters crossed into neighbouring DR Congo – potentially reorganising for counterattack – and of possible targeting of Fulani and Muslim civilians accused of backing rebels. Civilians suffered collateral damage from other govt-rebel conflicts. In Haute-Kotto prefecture, Coalition of Patriots for Change rebels 2 June burned houses in three villages in Ouadda sub-prefecture, forcing residents to flee after accusing them of supporting army. Meanwhile, 115 anti-Balaka militia fighters 22 June voluntarily disarmed in Kouango town, Ouaka prefecture, amid army-Russian paramilitary deployment.

Political tensions continued as govt pursued manoeuvres to solidify control. Discontent remained high in some areas like Haut-Ubangi region, where opposition enjoys support, after President Touadéra 30 May bypassed constitutional requirement to hold elections for regional governors, citing electoral commission’s financial difficulties, and appointed them directly. Opposition alliance 13 June reiterated it would boycott municipal elections due in Oct; earlier, French Ambassador to Bangui 6 June urged participation, warning of risk of permanent exclusion from political landscape, causing discontent within opposition. UN electoral adviser 4-14 June led delegation to capital Bangui to assess preparations.

Amid Russian influence, foreign nationals faced repression. Court 21 June charged Belgian-Portuguese national working for American NGO with six crimes, including terrorism, following his May arrest in Zemio town, Haut-Mbomou, reportedly ordered by Russian paramilitaries. Authorities 10 June arrested two French-Algerian nationals in Bangui as prosecutors charged them with mercenary activities; Russian propaganda networks widely broadcasted arrest. Civil society platform led by pro-Russian figure following day organised demonstration attended by around 100 in capital to condemn foreign interference and express solidarity with army.

Ruling party stepped up opposition repression following May presidential election win; govt maintained delicate balancing act with international partners.

Internal party divisions escalated as repression of opposition figures intensified. Despite election win last month, tensions within ruling-Patriotic Salvation Movement (MPS) erupted amid strains of competition for govt positions; notably, physical confrontation between MPS Secretary General and party member 7 June resulted in injuries to latter. Meanwhile, concerns over domestic and international repression of opposition continued after France-based activist Charfadine Galmaye Salimi 30 May accused National Security Agency head and deputy of plotting to assassinate him in France. Police 3 June violently repressed student protest in capital N’Djamena’s ninth district, injuring at least 12 students.

Govt directed army to deploy to tackle rising crime. President Déby 18 June ordered exceptional national army deployment to address rising crime in interior following attacks by road-blocking bandits on traders in Salamat province, including 2 June near Am-Timam town that killed one and 8 June in Haraze-Mangueigne division that killed another, prompting local outcry. Meanwhile, assailants 12 June attacked Toumbao village, Logone Oriental province, killing five civilians, injuring seven and stealing 500 cattle. 

Govt deepened relations with Russia, but also defended ties with West. Russian FM Lavrov 5 June visited N’Djamena, marking further step in strengthening bilateral ties following Déby’s Jan visit to Russian capital Moscow; Lavrov praised bilateral cooperation and encouraged Chad’s support for Russia in conflict in Ukraine. Despite growing Russian influence and ongoing anti-Western rhetoric by some regime figures, govt continued to support traditional allies; authorities 7 June banned peaceful march by Revolutionary Movement for Democracy and Peace group against French presence while PM Halina 13 June reaffirmed commitment to historic Western allies but emphasised country’s right to engage with new security partners during presentation of govt program to National Assembly.

In another important development. Govt 20 June announced that fire 18-19 June engulfed military ammunition depot in N’Djamena, resulting in nine deaths and dozens of injuries. 

Jockeying between major political players continued ahead of 2025 presidential election.

Figures from ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) continued to call for President Ouattara to stand as candidate in Oct 2025 presidential election; during speech to Congress, Ouattara 18 June praised his govt’s achievements and country’s economic growth under his rule, but did not clarify whether he intended to run for fourth term. Main opposition party Democratic Party of Côte d’Ivoire (PDCI) leader Tidjane Thiam 22 June began national tour with rally in Soubré city, Nawa region, criticising govt’s record and calling on PDCI activists to encourage voter registration across country.

Islamic State-linked group sharply escalated attacks, killing hundreds in east; M23 rebels continued advance, new govt appointed amid political tensions. 

Jihadist violence surged in Beni and Lubero territories in North Kivu province. Islamic State-affiliated Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) intensified attacks with series of deadly assaults. Group 4-7 June reportedly killed close to 100 civilians in several villages in Baswagha-Madiwe locality, Beni territory; ADF 12-13 June extended attacks to Lubero territory, further south than usual area, killing at least 40 civilians in Maikengo village. Civil society groups 15 June said militants may have killed at least 200 in previous month in Beni and Lubero. Violence also continued in neighbouring Ituri province. In Mambasa territory, ADF 11 June attacked Masongo town, killing six civilians. In Djugu territory, ethnic Lendu militia CODECO 20 June killed 25 civilians in Bianda village and same day killed at least 36 in Lodjo village.

M23 rebels extended offensive northward in North Kivu. Advancing from early June onwards, M23 28 June seized strategic Kanyabayonga town on Route Nationale 2, important gateway to commercial Butembo and Beni towns, and took Kirumba town two days later; expansion opened up access to Lubero territory, north of main hotspots of Masisi and Rutshuru territories where military and allies continued to clash with M23. Fighting displaced tens of thousands including north toward Beni territory, while thousands sought refuge in provincial capital Goma; displacement to neighbouring South Kivu province also contributed to deteriorating security and humanitarian conditions there, including in Minova town which remained in line of rebel mortar fire. Meanwhile, leaked UN report noted heavy Rwandan military presence in North Kivu (see Rwanda).

New govt took office after months of delay. National Assembly 11 June endorsed new 54-member strong govt under PM Suminwa, dominated by President Tshisekedi’s Union for Democracy and Social Progress and close associates. Sidelining or demoting of senior ruling-coalition figures and their parties – including National Assembly head Vital Kamerhe and FM Lutundula – incited discontent over perceived power grab by Tshisekedi. Meanwhile, church observation mission 17 June published final report on Dec 2023 general elections, criticising electoral commission’s handling of vote. 

UN expert deplored Eritrea’s human rights record, while relations between Moscow and Asmara continued to strengthen. 

Eritrea’s human rights record came under renewed UN scrutiny. In his fourth report to UN Human Rights Council, UN special rapporteur Mohamed Babiker 20 June said situation in Eritrea remains dire, with authorities showing “little willingness to address ongoing violations”, which include “indefinite and compulsory national service, the repression of freedom of religion or belief, the state of the rule of law and the administration of justice, and violations of civil and political rights”; Babiker also noted Eritrean authorities’ growing efforts to suppress critical voices in the diaspora. Chargé d’Affaires to UN Habtom Zerai same day criticised “annual ritual of demonising Eritrea”.

Eritrea welcomed Russian naval presence in Red Sea. Speaking to Russian news agency Tass, Russian Ambassador to Eritrea Igor Mozgo 11 June said Asmara had welcomed “visits” of Russian navy ships to Red Sea and advocated “permanent presence” in region; Mozgo added that Asmara would like to see more active Russian presence in Africa to serve as “counterweight to Western influence”. Comments come after Russian Pacific fleet late March-early April visited Massawa port, indicating growing defence partnership between the two countries.

Authorities called for dialogue to end insurgency in Amhara, violence in Oromia remained rampant, and Amhara-Tigray tensions persisted despite federal efforts to tackle territorial dispute.

Peace conference took place in Amhara region amid continued hostilities. Violence between federal forces and Amhara nationalist militias known as Fano persisted, with clashes reported in West Gojjam, North Gojjam, East Gojjam, Central Gondar, South Wollo, North Wollo and North Shewa zones. State of emergency declared in Aug 2023 expired 3 June, though military command posts remained operational amid fierce battles and Fano militants’ targeting of local officials and civilians. Security forces throughout month reportedly killed dozens of civilians suspected of Fano ties, including in West Gojjam and North Shewa zones. Regional, federal and military leaders 24-25 June gathered in regional capital Bahir Dar for peace conference, resulting in formation of 15-member Regional Peace Council, comprised of prominent figures from Amhara and backed by federal govt, to facilitate talks with Fano militias.

Oromia region remained wracked by insecurity. Fano militants conducted attacks in Oromia-Amhara borderlands and deeper within Oromia, threatening to heighten inter-ethnic tensions. Notably, alleged Fano militants 15 June fought with Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) in Dera Woreda (North Shewa Zone), marking first direct clash reported between the two groups, and which left four civilians dead; suspected Fano militiamen 15 June killed dozens of civilians in Nono woreda (West Shewa Zone). Meanwhile, federal-OLA fighting continued, with OLA 8 June claiming they had killed “thousands of regime combatants”. Resumption of peace talks appeared increasingly unlikely. 

Tigray-Amhara tensions persisted. Tigray-Amhara tensions simmered amid implementation of Addis Ababa’s plan to tackle their territorial dispute (which entails dismantling Amhara-established administrations in Western and Southern Tigray and resettling displaced Tigrayans). Notably, BBC 15 June spoke with residents in Tselemt woreda (Western Tigray), who claimed that Tigray forces had killed local leaders and attempted to dismantle Amhara administration themselves, before federal forces intervened. Meanwhile, federal parliament 4 June allowed Tigray People’s Liberation Front to re-register as political party.

Relations with Mogadishu remained tense. Somalia's ambassador to UN 24 June accused Ethiopian troops of illegal cross-border incursion that led to confrontations with local security forces (see Somalia).