少数民族武装团体将缅甸军队赶出了边境地区,导致缅甸走向分裂为多个自治小国,而军政权仍紧握中央。希望帮助缅甸人民的外部行为者应适应这一个新现实。
CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
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Myanmar’s ethnic armed groups are securing on the battlefield the autonomous homelands they have long sought.
Myanmar isn't a well-functioning, centralized state that has suddenly fallen into atomization… It's always been fragmented to some extent or another.
The [Myanmar] military is clearly facing significant manpower shortages, which is why it is introducing a draft for the first time in its history.
The military [in Myanmar] might not have the ability to vanquish its opponents, but it retains an enormous capacity for violence, especially against civilian targets.
When the Myanmar military feels under pressure, its normal response is to ramp up the level of violence.
Vietnam fought wars with both US and China, and now has comprehensive strategic partnerships [the highest level] with both of them — that is a masterclass of diplomacy.
Why Outside Actors Should Work More Closely With Nonstate Groups
Tensions between China and the Philippines are increasing the risk of armed conflict in the South China Sea. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024 – Spring Update, Crisis Group looks at how the EU can support regional diplomacy to mitigate maritime disputes.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s experts Amanda Hsiao and Georgi Engelbrecht about rising tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea and the risks of maritime incidents sucking in the U.S., a Philippines ally.
The Arakan Army has greatly expanded the territory it controls in Rakhine State, on Myanmar’s border with Bangladesh, seizing many areas inhabited by Rohingya Muslims. With the regime keen to foment inter-communal strife, Rakhine and Rohingya leaders should act swiftly to calm tensions.
Manila’s counter-insurgency campaign has whittled the Philippine communist rebellion down to a fraction of its former strength. But it has fallen short of ending the conflict. A negotiated peace preceded by confidence-building measures is the best way forward.
In this online event, experts discuss the current state of China-Myanmar relations, Beijing’s tacit support for the rebel offensive launched on 27 October in Myanmar’s northeast, and the implications for international policy on Myanmar.
北京对缅甸军事统治者的影响力比任何其他外来国家都来得更大。 虽然北京的影响力是有局限的,但它可以通过打击有组织犯罪和鼓励合法经济来帮助平息边境地区。 其他国家应探索潜在的合作领域,以解决政变后的危机。
In this video Miriam Coronel-Ferrer reflects on the gains made and challenges that remain for the Bangsamoro region ten years after the 2014 peace agreement.
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