Iraq has been successively ravaged by the 1980-1988 war with Iran, crippling sanctions after its invasion of Kuwait in 1990, internal conflict after the U.S.-led invasion of 2003, and the transnational jihadists of Islamic State after 2014. Its multiple challenges further include sectarian violence and Kurdish separatism. Crisis Group aims to promote locally-centred stabilisation and better governance of post-ISIS Iraq in order to reduce the risk of violent flare-ups in liberated areas and mitigate the impact of foreign strategic competition, notably between Iran and the U.S. Through field research, advocacy and engagement with all sides, we urge countries involved in the anti-ISIS campaign to support security sector and institutional reform in Iraq as well. On the Kurdish front, we urge a return to a UN-led process to resolve the question of the disputed territories, especially Kirkuk, and of oil revenue-sharing.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Lahib Higel, Crisis Group’s Iraq expert, to discuss the recent escalation between U.S. forces and Iran-backed groups in Iraq and Syria and what it means for the presence of American troops in Iraq.
Iran-backed groups targeted U.S. troops with drones and rockets after months-long hiatus, and Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) leader raised hopes of improved Erbil-Baghdad relationship.
Iran-backed groups, U.S. resumed tit-for-tat strikes. In first attack since March, armed drones by suspected Iran-backed groups 16 July targeted Ain al-Asad airbase housing U.S. troops in Anbar governorate; rockets 25 July again targeted base, with no U.S. casualties reported. In first known airstrike since Feb, U.S. 30 July targeted Hashd al-Shaabi base used by Iran-aligned militias in Babil governorate, killing four; Iraqi military next day denounced strike as “heinous crime” and violation of U.S.-led coalition’s mandate. Meanwhile, Tehran-aligned Islamic Resistance in Iraq 15 July reportedly carried out joint operation with Yemeni Houthis against ship in Mediterranean, and 19, 21 July claimed unconfirmed strikes on Israeli cities Haifa and Eilat.
Islamic State (ISIS) continued attacks, U.S. and Iraq discussed troop drawdown. Clashes between govt forces and ISIS 13 July killed four police officers in Khan Bani Saad town, Diyala governorate; U.S. Central Command 17 July noted uptick in ISIS attack in Iraq and Syria as part of group’s efforts to “reconstitute” capabilities. Iraqi and U.S. officials 22-23 July held second round of Joint Security Cooperation Dialogue to discuss transition from U.S.-led Global Coalition against Islamic State (ISIS) to bilateral security relationship.
KDP submitted candidates for local elections and KDP leader visited Baghdad. Following latest of several extensions of registration deadline for candidates, KDP 18 July said it had submitted candidate list, removing last hurdles for Kurdistan legislative elections in Oct. Meanwhile, KDP leader Masoud Barzani 3 July visited capital Baghdad for first time in six years, said talks with PM al-Sudani represented “real breakthrough” in relations.
Türkiye operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) continued in north. Turkish President Erdoğan 13 July claimed ground operation Claw-Lock against PKK in north would end “very soon”, hailing it as success. Meanwhile, clashes between PKK and Turkish forces early July reportedly caused evacuation of seven villages in Duhok governorate. Türkiye also continued anti-PKK strikes. Notably, Turkish Defence Ministry 30 July announced “neutralising” 13 PKK members in Gara and Haftanin regions.
Installing a monarchy that wasn’t very popular and that was overthrown in 1958 was the ignition for the many problems that the modern Iraqi state has faced.
The 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq infused the country’s Kurds with renewed hope of loosening the bonds that tie them to Baghdad. But subsequent events have dampened that spirit. Despite considerable progress toward autonomy, the historical Kurdish predicament endures.
The core lesson of the 2003 Iraq war is that ruptures in autocratic settings are inherently fraught with risk. Policymakers should approach proposed interventions in such settings with caution.
The architects of the 2003 invasion of Iraq had grand visions of transforming the Middle East in favour of U.S. interests. Two decades later, it is clear that the venture was a failure not just in that respect, but in most others as well.
Iraq has a new government after months of delay, but various challenges to stability persist. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help support necessary reforms.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group’s Iraq expert Lahib Higel about the crisis in Iraq, with parties unable to form a government almost a year after elections and the deadliest clashes the Iraqi capital has seen in years erupting in late August.
Demonstrators are occupying parliament in Baghdad, with Iraq’s main political camps deeply divided. The standoff need not turn violent, if the country’s leaders can shift to dialogue with support from foreign partners.
Sinjar has yet to recover from the ravages of 2014, when ISIS subjected the population to unrelenting terror. Thousands remain displaced. To persuade them to return, the Iraqi federal and Kurdish regional governments will need help from the current residents in improving governance and security.
Turkey is increasingly relying on airpower in its fight against the PKK. New parties have been drawn into the conflict as it spreads to new theatres in Iraq and Syria, which, for now at least, complicates potential efforts to settle things down.
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