China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea has raised tensions over competing territorial claims and maritime rights. In July 2016, an International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea found in favour of the Philippines on fourteen of fifteen points in its dispute with China, ruling that Beijing’s “nine-dash line” claim is inconsistent with international law. China rejected the decision, but subsequently its relations with the Philippines have warmed. Tensions between littoral states and China remain, however, as do disagreements between Beijing and Washington over freedom of navigation and trade. The risk of clashes is real. Crisis Group seeks to reduce friction and promote shared stewardship of the sea and its natural resources.
Tensions between China and the Philippines are increasing the risk of armed conflict in the South China Sea. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024 – Spring Update, Crisis Group looks at how the EU can support regional diplomacy to mitigate maritime disputes.
Violent maritime confrontation strained ties between Manila and Beijing, while Philippines and partners conducted military exercises.
Violent confrontation heightened tensions between China and Philippines. Chinese Coast Guard boats 17 June shoved into Philippine navy vessels attempting to resupply the Philippine ship, BRP Sierra Madre, with food supplies; Chinese coastguards reportedly seized firearms, food airdropped and cell phones, damaged four Philippine navy boats, and forcibly towed one boat during encounter. Philippines foreign ministry 19 June said eight Philippine navy personnel injured during incident including one who lost finger from Chinese boat striking into Philippine boat. Manila 19 June released video of incident showing China Coast Guard sailors brandishing axes and knives while blocking the Philippine vessel attempting to reach Sierra Madre. Incident happened after China 15 June enacted new regulation permitting its coast guards to intercept and detain for up to 60 days foreign boats and crews suspected of “trespassing” in waters it claims. For its part, China’s foreign ministry 19 June said Philippine vessels “deliberately rammed” Chinese vessels, calling incident “professional and restrained”. Philippine executive secretary 21 June said incident on 17 June did not constitute an “armed attack” and therefore does not trigger the mutual defence treaty with U.S.; Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr 27 June reiterated that 17 June incident was not an armed attack. Earlier, Philippines navy 7 June accused China of blocking medical evacuation of marine near Second Thomas Shoal calling it “barbaric and inhumane”.
U.S. & Philippines conducted military drills with regional partners. U.S. Navy’s Theodore Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Groups 11 June initiated military exercise Valiant Shield 2024, alongside Japanese (see China/Japan), French and Canadian forces. Naval forces from U.S., Canada, Japan, and Philippines 16-17 June conducted “maritime cooperative activity” in Philippines’ Exclusive Economic Zone.
Vietnam expanded its features on Spratly islands. Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative 7 June reported Vietnam accelerated land reclamation in Spratly islands, expanding its features in past six months as much as it had in previous two years; Philippine navy official 10 June said navy was monitoring situation, noting “Vietnam does not initiate illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive actions against us unlike China”.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s experts Amanda Hsiao and Georgi Engelbrecht about rising tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea and the risks of maritime incidents sucking in the U.S., a Philippines ally.
与菲律宾一样,越南正处于与中国海洋争端的前线。武装对抗发生的风险目前虽低,但在增加。河内应加倍努力,从较低敏感的问题开始建立信任,并制定行之有效的行为准则。
在北京和华盛顿之间的战略竞争大背景下,中国与菲律宾之间的海洋争端正在不断升温。 为了将紧张局势控制在沸点以下,马尼拉应在推动南海行为准则和更广泛的区域合作两方面不断努力。
南海争端从根本上来说是关于主权的主张,其中最广泛的是北京的主张。与此同时,中美之间的竞争给地区分歧加上了地缘政治意义。通过接受国际法的限制,两个大国都可以获益。
The South China Sea has long been a critical maritime passage, means of supply and trade route that was fought over by many claimants. Today the South China Sea is once again a 21st century flashpoint.
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