Zimbabwe’s military unexpectedly ousted President Robert Mugabe in late 2017, nearly four decades after he took power. Debilitating internal factionalism within the ruling Zanu-PF party over succession to Mugabe has culminated in the elevation of Emmerson Mnangagwa to the helm. He has promised to break with the past as he endeavours to navigate a much needed economic recovery. Prospects for promoting a new more inclusive political culture are less certain. Credible elections in 2018 could be a vital stepping stone toward a peaceful democratic transition, but they also pose a challenge to Zimbabwe’s weak institutions. Through research and analysis, Crisis Group sheds light on obstacles to a smooth, credible electoral process leading up to 2018. We help relevant actors nationally and internationally to buttress the likelihood of peaceful elections and democratic transition.
Zimbabwe will hold elections on 23 August. As with past votes, the playing field is skewed in favour of the ruling party ZANU-PF. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Nicolas Delaunay lays out the stakes and assesses the risks of violence.
Ahead of annual regional SADC summit, authorities intensified repression against civil society and political opposition.
Govt intensified repression of opponents and critical voices. Ahead of 17 Aug southern African regional body SADC summit in capital Harare, authorities cracked down on opposition, including with wave of arrests and detentions. High court 17 July denied bail to over 70 opposition party Citizens Coalition for Change (CCC) activists including interim party leader Jameson Timba; group charged in June with intent to promote public violence. Armed police 24 July reportedly raided National Students Union meeting in Harare, taking dozens into custody including union leader; union members reported security forces beat some students, causing injuries, and forced others to pay fines to secure release; police alleged that they were called in to “maintain law and order” after violent altercations broke out. Police 31 July arrested and detained 13 CCC party members, including MP John Houghton, in Kariba town, Mashonaland West province, for staging peaceful demonstration; security forces same day detained four human rights activists, forcibly removing them from plane they had boarded at Harare airport; Zimbabwe Lawyers for Human Rights alleged activists were detained “incommunicado” for eight hours and said one was tortured. Earlier, police 3 July arrested, and later released without charge, six people associated with local media organisation Community Voices Zimbabwe during meeting in Gokwe town, Midlands province. Human rights organisations including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch decried increased repression of dissenting voices in build up to SADC meeting and called on body to speak out. Amid ruling ZANU-PF party’s unease over potential anti-govt protests at summit, President Mnangagwa 24 July called for “peace and stability” around event.
In another important development. High court 22 July exonerated opposition leader Job Sikhala, clearing him of two criminal charges of inciting public violence and publishing falsehoods, for which he spent nearly 600 days in pre-trial detention.
For years, South Africa trusted in behind-the-scenes contacts to alleviate Zimbabwe’s political and economic problems. But those troubles have continued to mount. By stepping up pressure, and by working with Washington on reform guidelines, Pretoria can help Harare find a way out of its crisis.
In 2019, killings by machete-wielding gangs at Zimbabwe’s gold mines jogged the government into preventive action. But police sweeps alone cannot make the sector safe. Harare should adopt reforms that allow more citizens to mine legally and head off disputes over the country’s mineral wealth.
The Zimbabwean government’s decision to hike fuel prices has sparked fierce opposition. In this Q&A, Crisis Group’s Senior Consultant Piers Pigou explains how economic hardship is driving ordinary citizens to unprecedented acts of resistance.
Zimbabwe’s disputed elections have reinforced political divisions as the Constitutional Court hears an opposition challenge of the results. The military crackdown on opposition protesters highlights the urgency of reform if the government is to preserve stability and, by extension, its re-engagement strategy with international donors.
On 30 July Zimbabwe will hold elections. For the first time since independence Robert Mugabe is not a candidate. His successor presents himself as a reformer – but many doubt the polls will be clean. The opposition warns that Zimbabweans will not tolerate another stolen election.
A new presidential administration in Zimbabwe offers an opportunity for much-needed democratic and economic reform after years of stagnation. In this excerpt from our Watch List 2018, Crisis Group proposes four key areas on which the EU and its member states should focus its support: the security sector, elections, the economy and national reconciliation.
President Emmerson Mnangagwa has the chance to embark on a much-needed process of economic and governance reform in Zimbabwe. The military’s role in the political transition casts a shadow on the road to credible elections, which remain a priority if his government is to earn national and international legitimacy.
Delayed elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), where the stalled transition risks provoking a major crisis, are one of three critical African polls: the DRC crisis, the recent vote in Kenya and Zimbabwe’s election next year all have important implications for democracy and stability on the continent.
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