Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, escalating a war that began eight years before with Moscow’s annexation of Crimea. For Ukraine, its very existence as a state is at stake, while Russia hopes its attack will help assert its place in the world and restore its dominance over key neighbours. Ukraine’s Western backers see the prospect of Russia succeeding in violently shifting borders as a risk to their security. They, therefore, try to balance military support to Ukraine and the risk of escalating the conflict. Crisis Group’s reporting follows developments in the war, assesses its human costs and gauges the conflict’s regional and global security implications. In its advocacy, Crisis Group seeks to support policies that will help Ukraine survive and reduce escalation risks and the human cost of fighting while contributing to a sustainably secure Europe.
Explore Crisis Group's map that shows movements of military units and fortification building below.
Fighting raged in eastern Donetsk region as Russian forces targeted Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk towns, deadly airstrikes killed dozens of civilians across Ukraine, and NATO allies shored up military support.
Russian offensive in east continued, while northern frontline stabilised. Eastern Donetsk region saw fierce fighting, with Kyiv 4 July announcing troop withdrawals from Kanal district of Chasiv Yar as Russia pummelled strategically important town. Russian troops also pushed toward Pokrovsk town, a key logistics hub, while heavy fighting continued around Toretsk city. In southern Kherson region, officials 17 July announced troops had abandoned vulnerable bridgehead at Krynky village on eastern bank of Dnipro River. Meanwhile, President Zelenskyy 18 July announced that Russia’s diversionary offensive in north east Kharkiv region had “failed” as frontline stabilised, though fighting persisted.
Russia continued strikes across Ukraine and pulled its Black Sea fleet from Crimea. Moscow continued striking critical infrastructure, killing civilians across Ukraine and causing rolling blackouts. Notably, Russia 8 July launched massive aerial attack, killing at least 37 and striking children’s hospital in capital Kyiv; authorities 31 July said Russia earlier had launched most extensive drone attack on capital in 2024. Meanwhile, Ukrainian Navy 15 July announced Moscow had relocated its last remaining Black Sea Fleet patrol ship from Russian-annexed Crimea following Kyiv’s concerted military campaign there.
NATO allies drummed up support for Ukraine, Hungarian PM visited Kyiv. NATO summit propelled Zelenskyy back onto world stage as alliance 10 July declared Ukraine was on “irreversible path” to membership, pledged $43bn additional military aid and opened new coordination centre to provide more reliable flow of assistance. Kyiv 31 July received first batch of long-awaited F-16 fighter jets. Meanwhile, Hungarian PM Orbán, EU’s biggest sceptic of military aid to Ukraine, 2 July travelled to Kyiv for first time since full-scale invasion, calling for ceasefire during talks with Zelenskyy; Orbán also made surprise visits to Moscow and Beijing in proclaimed “peace mission” (see Russia).
In another important development. FM Kuleba 23-25 July visited China to press for “ways to stop Russian aggression”, 24 July said Kyiv was open to talks but saw no readiness from Moscow to negotiate in good faith.
For too long, allies clung to magical thinking about Russia's weakness and Ukraine's ability to force the Kremlin into talks with battlefield success.
If Ukraine doesn’t receive the weapons from the West that it needs to keep fighting … it doesn’t stand much of a chance.
Moscow's strategy of waiting for an erosion of European unity over Ukraine could yet prove a miscalculation.
Ukraine's weapons supplies are depleted by the counteroffensive, and its allies are struggling to quickly ramp up production.
[Putin’s] goal is to force the West to negotiate on Moscow's terms … on the entire post-Soviet space. He wants to divide the world into spheres of influence again.
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Lucian Kim, senior Ukraine analyst at Crisis Group, to talk about the mood in Kyiv and Washington over the war in Ukraine and Washington’s Ukraine policy as the U.S. heads for elections in November.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker about the latest from Ukraine, prospects for a negotiated settlement to the war and what lies ahead for European security.
Even as Ukraine continues to resist Russia’s onslaught, it faces the challenge of reintegrating lands its army freed from Russian occupation in 2022. With aid from donors, there is much Kyiv can do to help make these areas peaceful and productive once more.
In this online event, Crisis Group experts discuss the diplomats meeting in Lucerne about the war in Ukraine, its implications and Ukraine’s diplomatic strategy.
High-ranking officials from around the world will soon convene in Switzerland for talks aimed at “inspiring a future peace process” in Ukraine. No Russian representative will be there. In this Q&A, Crisis Group lays out the summit organisers’ goals and the obstacles to achieving them.
The gruelling war in Ukraine continues, with Russian forces creeping forward amid fierce fighting. To stop Russia’s immediate momentum and withstand its assault, Kyiv and its backers will need to move quickly to fix problems that have hindered the Ukrainian effort to date.
This week on War & Peace, Olga and Elissa are joined by Joe Cirincione, national security analyst and a leading expert on non-proliferation, to discuss the nuclear escalation risks of the war in Ukraine, U.S. nuclear policy and the looming collapse of global arms control.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Elissa Jobson talk with Crisis Group experts Alissa de Carbonnel and Simon Schlegel about where things stand for Ukraine and its Western supporters two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion and what might be next.
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