May 2024

Pristina closed six Serb bank offices in north, while govt faced setback in its bid to join Council of Europe.

Talks over currency issue stalled as Pristina closed branches of Serbian bank. EU 15 May announced that Kosovo and Serbia chief negotiators had failed to reach compromise on currency issue following Central Bank’s 1 Feb decision to ban Serbian dinar, primary currency used among Kosovo Serbs. Days later, Kosovo Police 20 May closed six branches of Serbia-run bank in four northern municipalities, saying move sought “to establish order and legality”. Serbia’s Minister of Internal Affairs Ivica Dačić same day decried move as “terror against Serbian people” and warned such actions could lead to “new conflicts in the Balkans”. EU 21 May said closures were “escalatory” and went “against the spirit of normalisation”. 

Kosovo faced setback in bid to join Council of Europe (CoE). CoE’s executive body, Committee of Ministers, 16-17 May held meeting but did not make decision on Kosovo’s membership to human rights body; FM Gervalla-Schwarz 17 May criticised move and accused Serbia of “lobbying campaign against Kosovo’s membership”. Earlier, Italy, France and Germany 15 May sent letter to PM Kurti stating membership was conditional on govt taking steps toward creating Association of Serb-majority Municipalities — which would enable greater autonomy for Serb municipalities.

Mob attack in capital prompted hundreds of foreign students to leave Kyrgyzstan, concerns about free speech continued, and incident occurred at Kyrgyz-Tajik border.  

Mob attack in capital Bishkek triggered exodus of foreign students. Hundreds of Kyrgyz youths 17 May stormed hostel in Bishkek and attacked foreign students, including Pakistanis and Indians, following 12-13 May brawl in student dormitory between Kyrgyz youths and Pakistani nationals. Violence injured dozens, prompted hundreds of Pakistani students to leave Kyrgyzstan and triggered diplomatic tensions with Pakistan and India. Bishkek 22 May announced arrest of six Kyrgyz and four foreign citizens for suspected involvement in 12 May incident.

Watchdog condemned media censorship. Media watchdog Reporters Without Borders 3 May published its annual World Press Freedom Index, warning that media censorship has intensified “in a spectacular mimicry of Russian repressive method” in Kyrgyzstan, among other countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Meanwhile, Alamu district court 14 May sentenced journalist and govt critic Oljobai Shakir to five years in prison for inciting “mass unrest”.

Incident occurred at border with Tajikistan. State Committee for National Security 7 May said security forces fired warning shots at Tajik shepherds, who had crossed border into Batken region to graze their livestock and reportedly thrown stones at military; Kyrgyz and Tajik border services next day issued statement saying sides had organised meeting in Batken to discuss ways to prevent further such incidents. 

Parliament voted to hold EU membership referendum alongside presidential elections in Oct, while govt deepened defence cooperation with EU.

Parliament 16 May voted to hold EU membership referendum on 20 Oct 2024, same day as presidential elections in which Maia Sandu is seeking re-election. Meanwhile, Chișinău 21 May signed security and defence partnership with EU, first country to sign such a pact with bloc, according to High Representative Josep Borrell. EU gave few details about agreement, but according to media outlet Financial Times, it will see Moldova step up intelligence sharing, conduct joint military drills and “be included in the bloc’s joint weapons procurement”. U.S. Sec-State Antony Blinken 29 May announced $135mn in aid to Moldova to bolster energy security and combat Russian disinformation.

President Putin questioned legitimacy of Ukraine’s leader following his own inauguration, Moscow held tactical nuclear weapons drills with Minsk, and West imposed more punitive measures. 

Putin reshuffled govt following inauguration. President Putin was inaugurated 7 May for fifth presidential term and began reshuffling govt. Notably, Kremlin 12 May announced First Deputy PM Andrei Belousov would replace Sergei Shoigu as Defence Minister. Belousov – an experienced economist and technocrat – is expected to control military spending and fight corruption. 

Putin claimed Zelenskyy could no longer be considered Ukraine’s legitimate leader. Putin 24 May said “legitimacy of the current head of state (in Ukraine) has ended”, referencing expiration of President Zelenskyy’s term on 20 May, extended under martial law. Announcement is part of Russian campaign to delegitimise Zelenskyy as head of state with whom Kremlin will negotiate end to the war. Earlier, Ukraine’s state security service 7 May announced investigators had foiled Russian plot to assassinate Zelenskyy. Meanwhile, Ukraine escalated strikes on border regions in response to Russian offensive in Kharkiv region (see Ukraine); notably, residential building in Belgorod 12 May partially collapsed following missile attack, killing seventeen. Reports emerged late May that U.S President Biden had given Ukraine green light to use U.S. weapons on Russian soil to defend Kharkiv. 

Moscow and Minsk conducted tactical nuclear weapon drills. While Russia conducts regular strategic nuclear weapons drills, Moscow 21 May launched tactical nuclear drills with Belarus close to Ukrainian border for first time since collapse of Soviet Union. Ministry of Defence 6 May said Putin ordered drills in response to “provocative statements and threats by certain western officials”, including those by French President Macron in Feb on sending troops to Ukraine. Meanwhile, U.S. Space Command 21 May reported Russia 16 May launched counterspace weapon capable of inspecting and attacking other satellites.

West imposed more punitive measures. U.S. imposed more sanctions, while EU countries 21 May adopted plan to use windfall profits from frozen Russian central bank assets for Ukraine; Putin 23 May signed decree allowing seizure of U.S. assets in Russia in response to any U.S. seizure of Russian assets. EU 27 May set up new sanctions framework targeting human rights violations in Russia.

Incident occurred at Kyrgyz-Tajik border.  

Kyrgyzstan’s State Committee for National Security 7 May said security forces fired warning shots at Tajik shepherds, who had crossed border into its Batken region to graze their livestock and reportedly thrown stones at military; Kyrgyz and Tajik border services next day issued statement saying sides had organised meeting in Batken to discuss ways to prevent further such incidents. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy 24 May urged Central Asian leaders to attend peace summit in Switzerland in June (see Ukraine).

Military continued strikes on Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in northern Iraq and northern Syria ahead of expected summer operation in Iraq, while President Erdoğan hosted Greek counterpart in capital Ankara.

Operations against PKK continued in northern Iraq and northern Syria. In northern Iraq, amid ongoing preparations for larger-scale operation in summer, military targeted PKK positions and militants in Hakurk, Gara and Qandil regions; PKK IED attack 22 May killed Turkish soldier in northern Iraq. Defence Minister Yaşar Güler 3 May said military had observed via drones that PKK militants were crossing into Iran after conducting attacks on Turkish forces. Güler 13 May said Bafel Talabani, head of Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party in Sulaymaniyah, was “preparing his own end” due to alleged ties with PKK (see Iraq). In northern Syria, defence ministry 10 May claimed it “neutralised” seven “PKK/People’s Protection Units (YPG)” militants. 

Authorities targeted alleged Islamic State (ISIS) members. Police during May detained at least 330 individuals, including one Iraqi national on Interpol’s notice list, suspected of ties to ISIS. Notably, police 14 May detained 44 individuals in Şanlıurfa province (south east) and 20 May detained twenty individuals in Izmir city (west). 

Diplomatic engagement with Greece continued. Greek PM Kyriakos Mitsotakis 13 May met President Erdoğan in capital Ankara to discuss bilateral issues, trade ties, progress on “positive agenda” and confidence-building measures; Erdoğan described meeting as “very productive, constructive and cordial” and that there were “no problems that cannot be resolved”, while Mitsotakis confirmed “bilateral relations were growing in a more positive context”. Sides continue to focus on improving ties in areas of trade and other fields of mutual interest.

Moscow intensified attacks in north east, forcing Ukraine to reinforce troops amid likely easing of restrictions on use of western-supplied weapons inside Russia.

Russia stepped up attacks in north as fighting in east ground on. In north east, Russian forces 10 May launched ground assault into Kharkiv region, advancing 5-10km deep into Ukraine; attack marked Russia’s largest territory grab in eighteen months and displaced over 14,000 people. President Zelenskyy 10 May announced redeployment of troops, which helped stall offensive; still, speed of Russian advance indicated defensive lines along northern frontier are at best porous and likely non-existent in some areas, which could mean further Russian probes of weak spots, as with reported troop concentration near Sumy city, forcing Ukraine to keep troops redeployed from east stationed there. Russian President Putin 17 May claimed offensive’s aim was to create “sanitary zone” to protect Belgorod region. In east, Ukrainian troops struggled to hold embattled Chasiv Yar in Donetsk region; fall of strategically important town would bring fight near urban hubs of Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. Meanwhile, military 2 May said Russian forces gained foothold in Ocheretyne town, moving frontline near Pokrovsk city, primary logistics hub in west Donetsk.

Russian airstrikes continued as Ukraine targeted Crimea. Russia continued striking energy infrastructure in bid to exploit Ukraine’s degraded air defence before effects of $61bn U.S. aid package set in. Kyiv launched drone and missile strikes in Russian-annexed Crimea; notably, missiles 15-17 May likely destroyed three fighter jets at Belbek airbase. Meanwhile, NATO Sec-Gen Jens Stoltenberg 24 May urged NATO allies to consider lifting restrictions on use of western-supplied weapons on “legitimate military targets on Russian territory”. Reports emerged late May that U.S. President Biden had given Ukraine green light to use U.S. weapons on Russian soil to defend Kharkiv.

In important international developments. EU member states 8 May reached deal to use interest generated from frozen Russian Central Bank assets for Ukraine, while several European countries pledged additional military support. Over fifty of the 160 invited countries confirmed attendance at peace conference 15-16 June in Switzerland, including India; Biden will likely skip conference. 

Tashkent signed regional deal on energy systems with Baku and Astana; Russian President Putin visited Uzbekistan.

Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan 1 May signed memorandum of understanding (MoU) in capital Tashkent to link their power grids; MoU aims to ensure integration of energy systems and efficient use of renewable energy sources. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy 24 May urged Central Asian leaders to attend peace summit in Switzerland in June (see Ukraine). Two days later, Russian President Putin 26 May travelled to Uzbekistan for two-day visit; President Mirziyoyev 27 May announced Russia would build Central Asia’s first nuclear power plant in Uzbekistan, one of several agreements signed during meeting between the two leaders.

Security situation in south west sharply deteriorated amid violent armed group attacks on state targets and clashes between rival FARC dissident factions.

FARC dissident violence escalated along Pacific coast. Clashes between security forces and splinter group of dissident Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) faction known as EMC accelerated along Pacific Coast, leaving dozens dead. Argelia municipality (Cauca department) witnessed multiple clashes early May as military tried to seize control of Caño de Micay trafficking corridor. EMC 20 May launched series of coordinated assaults against state targets in south west: fronts in Cauca attacked police station in Morales town, while bomb exploded in Jamundí town (Valle de Cauca department). Security forces throughout May warned of EMC expansion into previously calm departments of Tolima and Quindío. Meanwhile, skirmishes 24 May erupted between rival EMC factions, Frente 57 and Dagoberto Ramos, in rural area of Toribío municipality (Cauca), apparently linked to Frente 57 offensive to capture Indigenous lands in Tacueyo and San Francisco. 

Peace efforts with ELN struggled as group clashed with rival outfits. Govt and ELN 25 May signed agreement in Venezuelan capital Caracas, charting roadmap for public participation in peace talks. Accord generated cautious optimism at tense moment in negotiations. Notably, ELN 6 May said it would restart kidnapping for ransom, while confrontations with other armed groups escalated, likely impacting ELN’s calculations at talks. Insurgency faced pressure from Gaitanista Army of Colombia (EGC) (previously Gaitanista Self-Defence Forces of Colombia) in southern Bolívar state, one of ELN’s gold mining strongholds, with UN 14 May reporting significant civilian harm due to clashes. Local front Comuneros del Sur 7 May also announced separation from ELN and participation in dialogue initiative in Nariño department as separate organisation, reflecting broader trend toward armed group fragmentation across Colombia.

EGC sought to capture Sierra Nevada mountains. EGC accelerated push to seize Sierra Nevada mountains, Magdalena Department (north), from local outlet known as ‘Los Pachenos’; control of area would provide key strategic refuge for group, and connect trafficking route from Atlantic coastline to Venezuelan border. UN 6 May said skirmishes confined 300 members of ethnic Wiwa population.

U.S. removed Cuba from list of countries not fully cooperating on counterterrorism efforts. 

U.S. State Department 15 May removed Cuba from list of countries deemed uncooperative on counterterrorism efforts, known as Not Fully Cooperating Countries (NFCC) list; other countries include North Korea, Iran, Syria and Venezuela. Justifying decision, State Department cited resumption of law enforcement cooperation between Washington and Havana in 2023, and Colombia’s decision to suspend arrest warrants for National Liberation Army commanders living in Cuba (meaning Havana was no longer refusing to collaborate with Bogotá on extradition requests). Cuba, however, remains designated as a state sponsor of terrorism. FM Bruno Rodríguez same day welcomed removal from NFCC list but urged U.S. to end “Cuba’s arbitrary and unjust inclusion in the list of State sponsors of terrorism”.