Since 2017, Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s northernmost province, is the scene of a deadly insurrection. While foreigners have joined in the name of jihad, most of the Mozambican rank and file militants are motivated by their perceived socio-economic exclusion amid major mineral and hydrocarbon discoveries in the region. The conflict threatens national stability, just as Mozambique is fulfilling a peace deal with the country’s main opposition group in the center of Mozambique, and risks becoming a new frontier for global jihad to exploit. Crisis Group advocates for bespoke military support from external actors, dialogue with the Mozambican rank and file and measures to address the underlying frustrations that led these militants to take up arms.
On the Horizon sounds the alarm about conflicts and crises that may emerge over the next three to six months. It identifies key actors and dates to watch in support of global conflict prevention efforts.
Govt and Rwandan forces continued offensive against Islamic State militants in northern Cabo Delgado province; court barred opposition coalition from October elections.
Counter-insurgency operations focused on coastal district Macomia. Rwandan and govt forces continued offensive against Islamic State Mozambique Province (ISMP) that began late July; though Maputo and Kigali communicated very little publicly about operations, forces reportedly targeted militant strongholds along coast and in Catupa forest. Area of fighting reportedly stretched from south of north-lying Mocímboa da Praia district down throughout Macomia to southern parts of district, as well as westward to areas along Messalo river and Catupa forest; conflict zones included strategically located Mucojo town which ISMP has occupied for several months. Early unconfirmed reports suggested insurgents may have suffered heavy casualties. Offensive included use of Rwandan combat helicopters, notably targeting insurgent positions in Mucojo; potential civilian casualties could damage Rwandan military’s good standing with local communities.
ISMP remained threat in Muidumbe, Nangade districts. Explosive planted by militants on N380 road 9 Aug killed police truck driver in Muidumbe district. Group also maintained presence in Nangade district bordering Tanzania, with Tanzanian forces clashing with insurgents outside Nangade town; ISMP and joint Tanzanian-govt force 2 Aug reportedly fought around Namuine village; details remained unclear.
Court confirmed opposition coalition banned from legislative and provincial ballot. Constitutional Council 1 Aug upheld July decision by electoral commission to bar opposition coalition Coligação Aliança Democrática (CAD) from 9 Oct polls because its registration was invalid; CAD leader Venâncio Mondlane, however, still allowed to run in presidential vote. Meanwhile, election observers criticised parliament’s 8 Aug law that removed power of district courts – some of which overturned results favouring ruling FRELIMO party in 2023 municipal elections – to order recounts. Campaigning began 24 Aug.
The southern African mission in Mozambique is slated to wrap up in July, but some troops will remain, as neighbouring countries worry that the jihadist insurgency in Cabo Delgado is rebounding. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Meron Elias and Pauline Bax explain the concerns.
The Al-Shabab insurgency continues to pose a threat to civilians in northern Mozambique. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can help stabilise the area.
Rwandan and southern African troops have helped authorities fight an Islamist insurgency in Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s northernmost province. The threat is greatly lowered but not yet gone. Maputo will need more military assistance as well as a nudge to address the conflict’s political roots.
In this episode of The Horn’s mini-series exploring jihadism along the East African coast, Alan Boswell talks to Dr. Adriano Nuvunga about what caused the insurgency in Mozambique to grow and the need for a coordinated regional strategy that addresses its root causes.
This special mini-series of Crisis Group’s The Horn explores jihadism along the Swahili coast. In this first episode, Alan Boswell talks to Ngala Chome about the history of militant ideologies in Eastern Africa and how states can better address their growing threat.
Online event, in partnership with the South African weekly newspaper Mail & Guardian, to discuss how to prevent the Cabo Delgado insurrection from escalating into a new frontier for global jihadism.
Receive the best source of conflict analysis right in your inbox.
This site uses cookies. By continuing to browse the site you are agreeing to our use of cookies. Review our privacy policy for more details.