China’s increasing assertiveness in the South China Sea has raised tensions over competing territorial claims and maritime rights. In July 2016, an International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea found in favour of the Philippines on fourteen of fifteen points in its dispute with China, ruling that Beijing’s “nine-dash line” claim is inconsistent with international law. China rejected the decision, but subsequently its relations with the Philippines have warmed. Tensions between littoral states and China remain, however, as do disagreements between Beijing and Washington over freedom of navigation and trade. The risk of clashes is real. Crisis Group seeks to reduce friction and promote shared stewardship of the sea and its natural resources.
Tensions between China and the Philippines are increasing the risk of armed conflict in the South China Sea. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2024 – Spring Update, Crisis Group looks at how the EU can support regional diplomacy to mitigate maritime disputes.
Confrontations continued around disputed shoals and opposing military exercises strained relations between China and the U.S. and its allies.
Confrontations in the air and at sea strained deal between Manila and Beijing. Philippine military 10 Aug condemned “dangerous and provocative” actions of two Chinese Air Force fighter jets, which disrupted Philippine Air Force patrol over Scarborough Shoal by firing flares; Chinese military said operation was “professional, abided by norms”. Near same shoal, Chinese Air Force fighter jet 19 Aug reportedly intimidated Philippine fisheries plane with flares. Hours earlier, Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels collided at Sabina Shoal. Chinese island base 22 Aug fired flares while Philippine fisheries plane conducted routine poaching patrol near Subi Reef; Beijing insisted it implemented “necessary countermeasures” to protect its sovereignty. Chinese ships 25 Aug reportedly fired water cannons at Philippine fisheries enforcement vessel near Sabina Shoal; some 40 Chinese ships 26 Aug prevented resupply of Teresa Magbanua; Beijing 29 Aug day told Manila to “immediately withdraw” from Sabina Shoal. Earlier, Manila 13 Aug, and again 24 Aug, warned that aircraft incidents threatened temporary July pact with China to avoid confrontations during Philippine resupply missions, called on Beijing to stop “all provocative and dangerous actions”. Beijing and Manila blamed each other for additional 31 Aug collision of coast guard vessels near Sabina Shoal.
Counter military exercises fuelled tensions. Manila and Tokyo 2 Aug launched inaugural joint military drills in South China Sea with two warships; Philippines armed forces stated that drills aimed to strengthen regional cooperation and realise “free and open Indo-Pacific”. U.S., Australia, Canada and Philippines 7 Aug staged inaugural joint naval and air force exercises in South China Sea; Chinese military same day launched air and sea combat patrols near Scarborough Shoal. Philippine and Vietnamese coastguards 9 Aug held first joint drills off Manila.
In other important developments. Vietnamese leader To Lam chose China for his first overseas visit, signalling value of balancing close ties with its neighbour while it strengthens relations with U.S.; Chinese leader Xi Jinping 19 Aug held talks with Lam in Beijing. U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan 26-29 Aug visited Beijing for first time in such capacity.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s experts Amanda Hsiao and Georgi Engelbrecht about rising tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea and the risks of maritime incidents sucking in the U.S., a Philippines ally.
Together with the Philippines, Vietnam is on the front line of maritime disputes with China. The risk of armed confrontation is low but growing. Hanoi should redouble efforts to build confidence, starting with less sensitive issues, and to establish an effective Code of Conduct.
The maritime dispute between China and the Philippines is simmering against the backdrop of strategic competition between Beijing and Washington. To keep tensions below boiling point, Manila should push for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea as well as greater regional cooperation.
The disputes in the South China Sea are fundamentally about claims of sovereignty, the broadest of which are staked by Beijing. The Chinese-U.S. rivalry, meanwhile, loads the dissension with geopolitical significance. Both major powers stand to gain by accepting the constraints of international law.
The South China Sea has long been a critical maritime passage, means of supply and trade route that was fought over by many claimants. Today the South China Sea is once again a 21st century flashpoint.
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