Tajikistan is tightly controlled by President Emomali Rahmon and a complex system of patronage and political repression are the hallmarks of his rule. The government’s elimination of moderate Islamic opposition risks creating an opening for violent jihadists and the country faces growing instability along its southern border with conflict-plagued Afghanistan. Through field research, analytical reports and advocacy, Crisis Group aims to mitigate Tajikistan’s internal and external threats and inform national and regional stakeholders about the risk of political instability and radicalisation in the face of government policies.
Four Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – have argued over their water resources since the collapse of the Soviet Union. At times these disputes have seemed to threaten war. The forthcoming presidential summit in Astana can help banish that spectre.
Sixth consultative meeting of Central Asian leaders underscored deepening regional cooperation; stifling of media persisted.
Kazakhstan hosted sixth consultative meeting of Central Asian leaders. Kazakhstan 9 Aug hosted presidents from Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan for VI Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia in capital Astana, also attended by Azerbaijani President Aliyev and head of UN Regional Center for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia, Kaha Imnadze. Kazakh President Tokayev said these regular meetings illustrated all five countries’ commitment to strengthening cooperation, and hailed efforts “to ensure regional stability and security”, strengthen trade and expand transport links. Leaders signed number of documents, including several pertaining to development of regional integration in mid- and long-term.
Repression of media persisted. Committee to Protect Journalists 19 Aug urged authorities to release Ahmad Ibrohim, editor of independent weekly newspaper Payk, who was arrested 12 Aug; watchdog said Ibrohim’s arrest is a “reminder of how dangerous any form of critical journalism is in the country’s deeply repressive media environment”.
The prevailing calm in Gorno-Badakhshan in Tajikistan's remote east does not rule out the prospect of a clash between local powerbrokers and Dushanbe authorities. To mitigate the risks of a local flare-up and regional power rivalry, China and Russia should communicate with each other and nudge President Rahmon toward a smooth transition of power.
With his seven-year term set to end in 2020, uncertainty is growing over whether Tajikistan’s long-time ruler President Rahmon will handpick a successor or continue his reign. Growing troubles at home and abroad ensure both scenarios are fraught with risk and must be managed prudently, lest the country become another source of regional disorder.
Plagued by violence, corruption and economic hardship, and exposed to a long, insecure border with Afghanistan, Tajikistan is under dangerous stress. President Rahmon’s autocratic undermining of the 1997 peace agreement is fostering Islamic radicalisation. As Tajikistan’s growing fragility impacts a brittle region, the country must become a conflict-prevention priority.
Growing tensions in the Ferghana Valley are exacerbated by disputes over shared water resources. To address this, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan urgently need to step back from using water or energy as a coercive tool and focus on reaching a series of modest, bilateral agreements, pending comprehensive resolution of this serious problem.
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