Algeria faces interlocking political and socio-economic challenges three years after a long-awaited presidential transition. A largely peaceful protest movement called the Hirak – prompted by the ex-president's attempt to prolong his tenure but driven by deeper grievances – filled the streets on Fridays for much of the period 2019-2021. The Hirak has faded, but its goals are unrealised, and renewed unrest is an ever present possibility. Tensions with Morocco, including over Western Sahara, also loom, threatening to roil North Africa. Through fieldwork and engagement with senior officials, Crisis Group works to enhance Algeria’s contribution to stability and conflict resolution in a troubled neighbourhood.
Le chef de l’Etat algérien, Abdelmadjid Tebboune, a convoqué des élections législatives anticipées qui se tiendront le 12 juin. Dans ce Q&A, l’expert de Crisis Group Michael Ayari explique pourquoi ce scrutin pourrait marquer l’entrée dans une nouvelle phase d’instabilité.
Domestic tensions rose ahead of 7 Sept presidential elections; govt faced rocky relations with several international actors.
Amid preparations for polls, former candidates faced criminal charges. With only three presidential candidates approved to run and main political groups including largest parties and unions supporting President Tebboune’s re-election bid, incumbent appeared set to win 7 Sept presidential election. Public prosecutor’s office 3-4 Aug detained 68 suspects on charges of fraud for allegedly having paid for backing for presidential candidatures; court 4 Aug placed three former candidates, Saïda Naghza, Belkacem Sahli and Abdelhakim Hamadi, under judicial supervision over case. Authorities 27 Aug arrested opposition figure Fethi Ghares, reportedly on charges of insulting president and spreading false news, releasing him under judicial supervision two days later. Meanwhile, Tebboune 18 Aug hosted first election campaign rally in Constantine city, pledging support for Palestine in Gaza war, including in reconstruction.
Security forces thwarted alleged separatist movement network. Govt 4 Aug arrested 21 individuals reportedly linked to Movement for the Self-determination of Kabylia, group authorities classified as terrorist organisation in 2021; Defence Ministry said arrests were made in connection to alleged arms-smuggling plot through Béjaïa port and attempt to disrupt upcoming election.
Govt faced international tensions over regional issues. Algiers 11 Aug expressed concern over advance of troops commanded by eastern Libyan warlord Khalifa Haftar toward Libyan Ghadames border town, 6km from Algerian Deb-deb town (see Libya). Meanwhile, tensions also remained high with both France and Morocco over Paris’ July decision to support Moroccan autonomy plan for Western Sahara; notably, Algerian and Moroccan representatives 23 Aug engaged in apparent scuffle at African development summit in Japan’s capital Tokyo over attendance of Sahrawi independence movement representative despite Moroccan protests. Govt also criticised activities of Russian paramilitaries in Mali close to Algerian border, with Algerian UN representative 26 Aug calling on UN Security Council to halt mercenary activities in area.
Morocco cannot follow Algeria in terms of military spending, so a military alliance with Israel is a way to balance the power with Algeria.
We're seeing a diplomatic war [over Western Sahara], where both sides [Algeria and Morocco] are resorting to anything short of open conflict.
Le 1er novembre 2020, le référendum constitutionnel sur lequel comptait le pouvoir algérien pour avancer vers des réformes a été éclipsé par l’hospitalisation du président Tebboune. Dans ce Q&A, notre analyste principal pour l’Algérie et la Tunisie, Michael Ayari, anticipe les risques de cette situation.
Algeria is now facing more challenges due to the social and economic fallout from the Covid-19 crisis and the country’s official lockdown measures. The authorities should respond to popular protests with a lighter touch and sit together with Hirak members to discuss the country’s economy.
A new wave of popular protests has jolted an already deeply unsettled Arab world. Nine years ago, uprisings across the region signalled a rejection of corrupt autocratic rule that failed to deliver jobs, basic services and reliable infrastructure. Yet regime repression and the protests’ lack of organisation, leadership and unified vision thwarted hopes of a new order. As suddenly as the uprisings erupted, as quickly they descended into violence. What followed was either brutal civil war or regime retrenchment. Tunisia stands as the sole, still fragile, exception.
A groundswell of popular unrest has ended Bouteflika’s twenty-year rule and brought Algeria to a fork in the road. The regime should embark on substantive reforms and enter dialogue with protest leaders in order to prevent the cycle of mass protests and repressive counter-measures spiralling out of control.
Protests against Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika have seized the country since he announced his candidacy for a fifth term ahead of the April election. In this Q&A, our analyst Michaël Ayari looks at the causes of an unprecedented uprising and examines future scenarios.
Political paralysis in oil-dependent Algeria has blocked much-needed economic reform. To avoid a new era of instability, the government should increase transparency and accountability within state institutions and the private sector, as well as improve opportunities for the country’s burgeoning youth.
Refugee camps in Tindouf, Algeria, have long been run by the Polisario movement, which seeks an independent state in Western Sahara, also claimed by Morocco. But a new generation of Sahrawi refugees is growing fractious as aid dwindles and diplomatic efforts fail to deliver a settlement.
As waves of protests have hit the hydrocarbon-rich Algerian south since 2013, authorities maintained a tenuous peace through handouts, repression and policing. To calm tensions, the state needs to clarify policies, communicate with local protestors and address underlying issues of governance.
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