In early 2021, Libyan politicians agreed on terms for a national unity government bringing together what had been two administrations in Tripoli and Tobruk. The accord was another step toward lasting stability following the October 2020 ceasefire between the two rival militaries. Unifying national institutions is taking time, however, and several possible pitfalls lie ahead. Through research and advocacy, Crisis Group aims to keep the national unity agreement intact and the various associated processes on track, encouraging dialogue among Libyans and vigorous engagement on the part of the UN and external powers with influence in the country.
In the aftermath of massive flooding that killed some 20,000 people, Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini travelled to Libya to look into what caused the disaster and who might bear responsibility.
Relations between east- and west-based govts significantly deteriorated amid confrontations over legitimacy, central bank leadership and military manoeuvres, threatening to undermine fragile peace.
Rival authorities attempted to delegitimise each other. Capital Tripoli-based govt 11 Aug expelled two Egyptian intelligence officers as reprisal for Cairo’s state visit invitation to non-internationally recognised east-based PM Hammad; in response, eastern House of Representatives (HoR) Speaker Aguila Saleh 13 Aug announced Hammad’s administration as “legitimate govt”, withdrawing recognition of three-man Presidency Council in Tripoli that backs PM Dabaiba; move potentially pre-empted Presidency Council issuing possible decree freezing eastern parliament. Earlier, Khaled Mishri, who seeks agreement on new unified govt with HoR, 7 Aug installed himself as president of western-High State Council after claiming one more vote in internal election than outgoing president and Dabaiba-ally Mohamed Tekkala; Tekkala contested result in court.
Dangerous contest erupted over central bank leadership. Presidency Council 12 Aug issued decree dismissing central bank governor Siddiq Elkebir, called on Mohammed Shukri to take post and installed new board of directors. HoR 16 Aug, however, issued notice confirming Elkebir in post; Elkebir also refused to step down. Armed group in Tripoli 18 Aug kidnapped bank executive Musab Msallem and Elkebir suspended all Central Bank operations. Though Msallem released next day, operations remained suspended with banks closed across country. Hamad’s east-based govt 26 Aug ordered closure of oilfields controlled by eastern military commander Khalifa Haftar due to dispute; by 30 Aug daily oil barrel production dropped from 1.4mn to 590,000. Elkebir 30 Aug said he and other senior bank officials forced to flee country amid threat of militia violence. UN mission 26 Aug expressed concern over “deteriorating situation […] resulting from unilateral decisions”.
East-based army movements unsettled Tripoli authorities. Media outlets early Aug reported Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) intended to advance on Ghadames city bordering Algeria and Tunisia and under control of Tripoli-based forces. Tripoli authorities mobilised units to counter possible takeover, though LNA 14 Aug claimed it was only reinforcing positions across south. Meanwhile, clashes between armed groups in Tripoli 9 Aug killed nine, highlighting persistent insecurity.
The political and economic landscape in [Libya] gives the current actors very little incentive to compromise.
[The] disaster that has hit Derna has really brought together the country, the people [of Libya], most importantly.
There is a need for the UN envoy to play a more proactive role in coordinating international positions and putting pressure on Libyan actors to move the situation forward...
In this online event Crisis Group analyst Claudia Gazzini and CNN international correspondent Jomana Karadsheh Scott offer some preliminary considerations on what happened, what they witnessed and what could have been done to prevent this tragedy.
In the aftermath of a burst dam and massive flooding, Crisis Group expert Claudia Gazzini travelled to Derna in eastern Libya to cover the relief effort and assess the two rival governments’ response.
Libyan politicians have floated a plan to put together an interim government. The UN and other external actors should support this step toward breaking the country’s political deadlock.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Libya expert Claudia Gazzini, to discuss the political standoff in Libya, the changing nature of foreign involvement in the country and potential links to fighting in Sudan.
As the United Nations Special Representative in Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, presents his plan for paving a way out of the country's political problems, Claudia Gazzini looks at four obstacles that his proposal will face.
In this In Black & White video, Crisis Group's Expert Claudia Gazzini explains that the only way to put Libya back on track is to maintain and strengthen a multitrack approach to Libya's problem.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Claudia Gazzini, Crisis Group’s Libya expert, to look at the political standoff in Libya that led to deadly clashes over the summer and whether a new UN envoy can help find a way out.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood asks Crisis Group experts how the Ukraine war has affected peacemaking elsewhere, notably Nagorno-Karabakh, where Moscow plays a major diplomatic role, and Libya, where the Kremlin backs one of the conflict’s main protagonists.
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