Tunisia, home to the first and arguably most successful of the 2011 Arab uprisings, appears to be backsliding in its transition to democracy. In mid-2021, President Kaïs Saïed consolidated powers in the executive through a series of steps widely regarded as unconstitutional. Opposition is growing though the president retains a strong social base. The polarisation could threaten stability, particularly as it intersects with persistent budgetary woes and popular discontent over economic and other inequality. Crisis Group works to help resolve these tensions in a country that remains critical for security in North Africa as a whole.
Along with democratic backsliding, Tunisia is facing an economic crunch, magnified by foreign debt it is struggling to repay. Outside actors should keep pressing the government on human rights, while looking for ways – chiefly, a revised IMF loan – to stave off the worst-case scenarios.
Political tensions worsened amid heightened repression and splits between President Saïed and army ahead of October presidential poll.
Authorities imposed prison sentences on several presidential candidates. Judiciary sentenced several aspiring candidates to jail for alleged illegal campaign practices, including 5 Aug Nizar Chaâri and 14 Aug rapper alias “K2Rym” in absentia. Electoral body 10 Aug announced three candidates approved to run in 6 Oct vote, out of 108 who submitted nominations: incumbent Saïed, little-known businessman Ayachi Zammel and Zouhair Maghzaoui of Arab nationalist Echaab movement, close to president, but critical of his poor economic record and closure of political space. Courts 27-30 Aug overturned electoral body’s rejection of candidacies of Abdellatif Makki, former leader of Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party, Mondher Zenaidi, minister under former President Ben Ali and Imed Daïmi, former leader of centre-left Congress for the Republic party; opposition could unite during volatile electoral period, raising stakes for vote. Meanwhile, alongside heightened political tensions, spectre of electoral violence rose; Saïed 5 Aug called on citizens to fight “forces opposed to the Tunisian people”, amid threats by president’s supporters to opposition candidates on social media.
Strains emerged between Saïed and army amid govt overhaul. Saïed 7 Aug dismissed PM Hanachi amid latter’s support to Agriculture Minister and army general Abelmonem Belati’s plan to combat water stress. Water management – including supply limits – continued to be flashpoint between military establishment and Saïed throughout month. President 25 Aug announced sudden govt reshuffle including removing Belati and shifting other military officials aside.
Authorities arrested prominent human rights activist. In regime’s continued attempts to neutralise those involved in post-2011 democratic transition, authorities 1 Aug issued arrest warrant for Sihem Bensedrine; Bensedrine, driving force behind transitional justice process, accused of falsifying report on crimes committed during Ben Ali’s dictatorship. UN 8 Aug said arrest cast “chilling effect on journalists, human rights defenders and civil society”.
Tunisia is on an authoritarian path and these elections are only meant to confirm the president in power and strengthen his hand.
Italy is trying to reinforce the bilateral relationship to convince Tunisia to continue to collaborate on [irregular migration].
The Europeans feel that they are on the front line of instability in North Africa and in the Mediterranean.
Tunisia’s socio-economic woes could get worse if it defaults on its debt. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group advises the EU to encourage a revised loan deal with the IMF but to pressure Tunis on governance and human rights.
Political tensions fuelled by President Saïed’s power grab and subsequent policies risk sending a crisis-ridden Tunisia over the edge. Saïed should organise a national dialogue and return to a negotiated constitutional order. In response, international partners should offer new economic perspectives for the country.
Tunisia faces multiple economic and social challenges following the suspension of parliament and the dismissal of the prime minister. This current state of emergency could fuel political turmoil and violence in the country. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2022, Crisis Group urges the EU and its member states to maintain bilateral cooperation with Tunisia and offer further economic incentives.
On 25 July, Tunisia’s President Kaïs Saïed invoked the constitution to seize emergency powers after months of crisis. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Riccardo Fabiani says compromise between Saïed and his parliamentary opponents remains possible, but so does grave violence.
Despite a marked decline in jihadist attacks in Tunisia since 2016, the government persists with repressive and unfocused counter-terrorism measures. The Tunisian authorities should make criminal justice and security reforms to prevent an upsurge in violence.
Tunisia’s new government and president represent political forces that emerged in late 2019’s elections, stirring up populism, polarisation and tensions. With judicious support from the EU, the new political class should focus on the economy and choose a path of dialogue and administrative reform.
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