Crisis Group has worked in Türkiye for well over a decade, engaging the government and a range of other stakeholders in order to develop analysis of the country's domestic and regional concerns and to advocate for ways of ending, mitigating or preventing conflict. At home, these concerns include the threat of escalated fighting with Kurdistan Workers’ Party militants and the uncertainty presented by jihadists returning from foreign battlefields, as well as the political, economic and social strains of hosting over four million refugees. In its immediate neighbourhood and beyond, Ankara has become a crucial player whose alliances and geopolitical ambitions are shaping various conflicts and prospects for their resolution. As Türkiye finds its place in a changing world order, Crisis Group provides insights into how its policies, and those of its partners, may better contribute to peace and stability.
Low-cost and high-performing, Turkish-made armed drones are capturing an increasing share of the global market. This success comes with risks, including escalation of conflict and reputational damage, but there are several ways for Ankara to manage them.
Authorities targeted Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and Islamic State (ISIS), and continued active foreign engagement, notably with Syria and Iraq over security and other issues.
Operations against Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), Islamic State (ISIS) persisted. Drone strike 14 Aug reportedly killed high-ranking PKK militant in Turkish province Ağrı. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya 17 Aug announced security forces detained 222 individuals with alleged links to the PKK. Anti-PKK operations in Syria and Iraq continued. Notably, Defence Ministry 7 Aug announced “neutralisation” of four PKK/People’s Defence Unity (YPG) militants in northern Syria; same day said PKK militants killed Turkish soldier in northern Iraq. Defence ministry 9 Aug said Türkiye “neutralised” 12 PKK militants in northern Iraq; Turkish strikes 12 Aug “neutralised” 17. Defence Minister Yaşar Güler 14 Aug said PKK was in “desperate situation”; 22 Aug resumed ground patrols with Russia in northern Syria. Turkish drone 23 Aug killed two journalists in Iraq’s Kurdistan region. Anti-ISIS operations continued; notably, Interior Ministry 2 Aug announced detention of 99 individuals across 26 cities in three-day operation.
Bilateral engagements with Syria and Iraq continued. Russia’s Middle East and Africa Special Envoy 9 Aug said Russia supports continuation of Türkiye-Syria normalisation and proposed Moscow to host tripartite summit. Defence Minister Güler 12 Aug listed Turkish conditions for pulling out of northern Syria, including new constitution, new elections and border security (see Syria). Türkiye and Iraq 15 Aug signed MoU on military, security and counter-terrorism cooperation in capital Ankara.
In other important international developments. Türkiye 7 Aug filed request to join South Africa’s International Court of Justice genocide case against Israel; President Erdoğan 14 Aug met Palestinian President Abbas in Ankara; Abbas next day addressed Turkish parliament. Unknown assailant 18 Aug killed Palestinian and injured two others in shooting attack in Istanbul city. U.S.-Russia prisoners’ exchange 1 Aug took place in capital Ankara with Turkish coordination (see Russia-U.S.). Ankara 12-13 Aug hosted Türkiye-mediated indirect talks between Somalia and Ethiopia on Red Sea port deal (see Somalia). Turkish FM Hakan Fidan 31 Aug attended informal EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting, first invitation to Turkish FM in five years (see Cyprus).
This is strategically important for the EU. It is necessary to avoid causing Turkey to drift further to other places.
Especially after the elections in Turkey, the EU is looking for new ways of having a more constructive and less acrimonious relationship with Turkey.
The success of Ankara's mediation [over Gaza] will depend on how much influence the political wing of Hamas has on the armed wing.
Ankara remains intent on further pushing back against the PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party] and its affiliates in the region.
If the UN fails to extend its operation [in Syria] via these [Turkish border] crossings, donor states should bypass the UN and do bilateral assistance themselves.
Less escalation in the conflict with the PKK may give authorities [in Türkiye] struggling with how to respond to this unprecedented crisis one less thing to worry about.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Türkiye director Nigar Göksel about Türkye’s policy in its neighbourhood as Ankara seeks to defend its interests in a region caught up and reshaped by recent wars.
Relations between Ankara and Brussels have been warming despite democratic backsliding in Türkiye. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Autumn Update, Crisis Group explains how the EU and its member states can deepen this trend, cooperating with Türkiye in areas of mutual interest.
UN diplomacy aimed at reunifying Cyprus has been drifting since talks broke down in 2017. The Secretary-General should appoint an envoy to draft a roadmap with sufficient incentives to bring both Greek and Turkish Cypriots back to the table.
Since the Syrian uprising began in 2011, Ankara has been drawn ever deeper into the crisis. Its approach will likely hold steady for now. But the choices it makes next matter for the fate of millions of Syrians.
In this online event, Crisis Group’s experts and external speakers discussed the extent to which hydrocarbons have shaped conflict dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean and the prospects for effective gas diplomacy, in particular.
This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker speaks with Crisis Group’s Türkiye Director Nigar Göksel about the Turkish elections and how President Erdoğan’s new term might shape the country’s domestic and foreign policy.
Major gas finds in the eastern Mediterranean seabed over the last ten years have fuelled ambitions to link the region’s energy markets and, in turn, bring its countries in conflict to the negotiating table. These great expectations have proven outsized, but smaller-scale objectives are achievable.
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