The Syrian conflict since 2011 is a constellation of overlapping crises. Each of its global, regional and sub-national dimensions demands a tailored response set within an overarching framework. Instead, chronic violence and worsening suffering have killed more than 250,000 people, fueling radicalisation, refugee flight and a self-sustaining war economy. Outside stakeholders must learn from the way the Syrian conflict has repeatedly dashed unrealistic expectations on all sides. Crisis Group pursues a comprehensive approach for achieving a sustainable decline in violence and, ultimately, a political settlement. We also seek to correct dominant narratives that focus on jihadism and migrant flows, which are the symptoms, rather than the causes, of the problem.
Armed groups aligned with Tehran have launched attacks aimed at compelling the U.S. to withdraw troops from Syria – and from Iraq. A ceasefire in Gaza is the best way to calm tensions, but Washington and its local partner can take ameliorative steps in the meantime.
Iran-backed groups targeted U.S. base and clashed with SDF in east, armed groups fought in north and Israel launched several attacks.
In east, Iran-backed militias and U.S. traded deadly attacks; Iran-backed militias clashed with SDF. Iran-backed groups 9 Aug launched drone attack at Kharab al-Jir base, Hasakah province, injured eight U.S. troops. Suspected U.S. drone 11 Aug killed eight Iran-backed militiamen near Iraqi border. Also in east, govt- and Iran-backed Arab tribal militias 6-7 Aug launched large-scale attack on Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) positions in Deir ez-Zor province, killing at least three civilians. In response, SDF 7 Aug besieged govt-held areas in Hasakah and Qamishli towns, Hasakah province. Clashes between SDF and Arab tribal militias 7-12 Aug killed 38, including 19 civilians; notably, govt- and Iran-backed groups 9 Aug reportedly killed 12 civilians in Dahla village, Deir ez-Zor; SDF 12 Aug reportedly killed 17 Arab tribal militiamen. SDF 14 Aug lifted sieges but clashes next day resumed.
In north, armed groups clashed. Clashes between SDF-aligned Afrin Liberation Forces, Türkiye-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) intensified. Notably, SNA-Afrin Liberation Forces clashes 11 Aug reportedly killed SNA member near Marea town, Aleppo province. In Idlib province, SNA-HTS clashes 12 Aug killed five. Afrin Liberation Forces 18 Aug reportedly killed HTS member near Afrin town, Aleppo. Clashes with SDF’s Manbij Military Council 21 Aug killed two SNA militants in Manbij area, Aleppo. Meanwhile, bomb 9 Aug killed at least nine in Azaz city, Aleppo province. U.S. strike 23 Aug killed senior leader of Al-Qaeda-linked Horas al-Din group in Jabal al-Zawiya area, Idlib province.
Israel reportedly launched several attacks. Alleged Israeli drone 3 Aug reportedly killed one on Damascus-Beirut road. Suspected Israeli airstrike 8 Aug targeted missile warehouse near al-Shayrat airport, Homs province, injuring Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps advisor who later died from wounds. Alleged Israeli airstrike 23 Aug killed three Iran-backed militants and injured ten in Homs and Hama provinces. Suspected Israeli drone strike 28 Aug killed three Palestinian fighters and one Hizbollah member on Damascus-Beirut highway.
In other important developments. ISIS 17 Aug killed three govt forces near al-Habil oil field, Homs. Alleged Turkish drone 29 Aug killed one in Hasakah’s Amuda town.
International reporting on the Middle East is focused on the Gaza war…, which has further reduced the visibility of the Syrian conflict.
Banks are hesitant to change their banking operations [in Syria] when they know that permissions could expire imminently.
Turkey is highly unlikely to compromise on troop withdrawal [from northern Syria].
It's important to remember that [Syrian president] Assad's return to the Arab League is a symbolic measure to begin the process of ending his regional isolation.
The U.S. and Europe have made it clear that they do not agree with Arab states normalizing with the Assad regime, but there doesn’t seem to be much they can do about it.
The UAE has, since 2021, embarked on a policy of diminishing tensions with other countries in the region, and normalizing with Assad is part of that.
Since the Syrian uprising began in 2011, Ankara has been drawn ever deeper into the crisis. Its approach will likely hold steady for now. But the choices it makes next matter for the fate of millions of Syrians.
The League of Arab States welcomed President Bashar al-Assad to its May summit, reinstating Syria’s membership, which it had suspended in 2011. The regime may look to have shrugged off the international opprobrium it earned for its brutality in repressing its opponents. But has it?
The rebels who control north-western Syria are dealing harshly with ISIS cells but have not yet crushed them entirely. The best way to stop jihadists from rebounding is to consolidate the area’s ceasefire. Outside powers can also help by sending more humanitarian aid.
Its self-declared caliphate is gone, but ISIS continues to stage attacks and intimidate the public in much of its former domain. The forces fighting the group need to hinder the militants’ movement between Syria’s regions – and, above all, to avoid debilitating conflicts with one another.
To prevent ISIS from resurging, forces fighting the group should stop it from moving across regions and avoid conflict with one another. This timeline catalogues some of the major ISIS attacks and counter-ISIS operations from 2017 to February 2022.
The UN Security Council is considering renewing an understanding whereby UN agencies transport aid to Idlib, an area held by Syrian rebels. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Richard Gowan, Dareen Khalifa and Ashish Pradhan explain why the arrangement remains essential.
This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to experts Dareen Khalifa and Jerome Drevon about ISIS in Syria after the death of its leader Abdullah Qardash, the precarious calm that prevails across the country and the evolution of al-Qaeda’s former affiliate in the north west, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.
Aleppo was devastated by bombing and shelling during the Syrian war. It remains unsafe, with residents subject to shakedowns by the regime’s security forces and various militias. Damascus and its outside backers should curb this predation as a crucial first step toward the city’s recovery.
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