The war in Yemen, which escalated in March 2015 when a Saudi-led coalition intervened on behalf of the internationally recognised government against Huthi rebels aligned with former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, has turned a poor country into a humanitarian catastrophe: hunger and fighting could provoke mass famine and waves of refugees; the conflict could destabilise Saudi Arabia; and both sides appear locked in a cycle of escalating violence, derailing UN peace talks. Crisis Group’s focus is on the negotiations: introducing ourselves at key points, shaping the debate, proposing solutions and encouraging stakeholders to modify positions based on our analysis. Concerted effort is required to convince the parties to accept the UN’s roadmap as the basis for a compromise that would end foreign intervention and allow Yemenis to make peace.
In response to repeated attacks by the Houthis on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the U.S. and UK launched airstrikes overnight 11-12 January against Houthi positions in Yemen. In this Q&A, Crisis Group looks at the implications.
Houthis continued attacks on international shipping, appointed new govt and intensified crackdown on aid workers; tensions in Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) fuelled tensions in south.
Houthis continued attacks in Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Notably, Houthis 3 Aug struck container ship in Gulf of Aden; next day said they shot down U.S. spy drone. Four suspected Houthis attacks 8, 9 Aug targeted ship in Bab al-Mandeb strait; attack 21 Aug targeted Greek-flagged oil tanker in Red Sea, leaving it adrift and burning, posing environmental hazard. U.S. forces continued strikes targeting Houthi infrastructure, notably 9 Aug said they destroyed Houthi vessel, missile launcher and aerial vehicles.
Houthis appointed new govt, consolidating power. Houthis 12 Aug announced new “Change and Development Government” 11 months after dismissing previous govt; appointment was delayed in Oct due to Houthis’ Red Sea operations and further group’s efforts to consolidate power. Notably, 15 out of 21 ministers are from Hashemite families closely aligned with group’s leader Abdel Malik al-Houthi; representation of General People’s Congress party reduced to 15% from 50% in previous govt; in apparent effort to include southerners, Houthis appointed new PM Ahmed al-Rahwi from southern Abyan governorate.
Houthis intensified arrests and harassment of aid workers. Houthi forces 3 Aug raided UN Human Rights Office in capital Sana’a and broadcast detainees’ forced confessions admitting to “westernising” Yemeni society; UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk 13 Aug condemned raid and called for release of all UN staff detained in Yemen, including 13 staff taken in early June.
In south, tensions driven by economic hardship and divisions in PLC escalated. Armed groups loyal to PLC member Abu Zaraa al-Muhrami 13 Aug raided PLC presidential office in Aden city after al-Muhrami accused office manager Yehiya al-Shuaibi of exploiting PLC allocations for personal financial gain. In Hadramawt governorate, dispute between Hadhrami tribal leaders and governor escalated with tribal armed groups 18 Aug cutting off oil supply from Masilah oil fields to local markets, demanding share of revenue. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula suicide attack 16 Aug killed 16 soldiers and injured 18 in Mudiyah district, Abyan province.
[The] Houthis wanted to send a message: We are the group that is most committed to Gaza, not just in words but in action.
What's happening in the Red Sea will have a huge impact on the current political process between the Saudis and Houthis.
The visit of both the Saudis and the Omanis aims to discuss the final details of the [Yemen] truce extension agreement, which is expected to be announced very soon.
The temporary cessation of hostilities in Yemen, the longest since the start of the war, has given Yemeni civilians much-needed breathing room after eight years of war.
This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Yemen expert Ahmed Nagi, about the recent uptick in attacks from Houthi rebels on vessels in the waters around Yemen and what they mean for global shipping and the war in Yemen.
For over eighteen months, Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthi rebels have been deep in discussions about a formal long-term ceasefire in their eight-year war. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Ahmed Nagi takes the temperature of the slow-moving talks.
Why Local Grievances Cannot Be Overlooked in Any Peace Process
The eight-member body heading Yemen’s internationally recognised government lacks a common vision for the country’s future. With Saudi Arabia looking to exit the Yemeni war, and negotiations with the Huthi rebels on the horizon, now is the time for the council to fix its problems.
After nearly eight years of war in Yemen, talks are under way between the Huthi rebels and Saudi Arabia. Yet, by themselves, these discussions cannot bring hostilities to a close. The UN should begin laying the groundwork for negotiations that include all the conflict parties.
Washington Can Help Broker a Lasting Peace
Yemen’s six-month truce is up for renewal on 2 October. The UN and external powers should redouble their efforts to forge agreement on an expanded deal. If those look set to fall short, however, they should propose interim arrangements that avert a return to major combat.
A floating oil storage facility in Yemeni waters is on the verge of breaking or blowing up. Time is running out to raise the remaining $20 million needed for a salvage operation to prevent ecological and economic damage of historic proportions.
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