The main candidates in Taiwan’s presidential race have advanced dramatically opposing ideas about how the island should handle tensions with China. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Ivy Kwek explains the January vote’s possible consequences for relations between Beijing and Taipei.
Taipei’s allies, including U.S. and Japan, affirmed shared commitment to deterrence, while Beijing maintained high maritime and aerial activity around island.
Beijing continued military activity as Taiwan held drills. Chinese Ministry of Transport 17-18 Aug patrolled strait for over 30 hours, reportedly to ensure safety of vessels, facilities and personnel during start of fishing season in China’s southern cost. Taiwan 20 Aug launched surface-to-air missile in live-fire drills conducted at Jiupeng Military base, southern Taiwan. U.S. destroyer 22 Aug made “routine” transit through strait; in response, China sent naval and air forces to monitor vessel. As of 30 Aug, Taiwan detected 556 Chinese military aircrafts round island, of which at least 402 either cross unofficial “median line” or entered Taiwan’s de facto air defence identification zone (ADIZ); notably, Taipei sighted 41 and 38 Chinese planes within ADIZ on 23 and 24 Aug respectively, highest of the month, which coincided with President Lai’s visit to outlying island of Kinmen. Taiwan identified 265 Chinese naval vessels in surrounding waters in August.
China released several Taiwanese amid cross-strait tensions. Chinese authorities 7 Aug released Kinmen-based Taiwanese army officer detained by Chinese Coast Guard from mid-March. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office and Ministry of Public Security 7 Aug added columns to official website listing names of “Taiwanese independence” secessionists, signalling resolve to pursue legal actions on these individuals; Taiwanese Mainland Affairs Council criticised list, saying that it only serves to further damage cross-strait relations. Beijing 13 Aug released four members of Taiwanese fishing boat seized in July, while boat and captain remain in custody.
Taipei’s allies, including U.S., Australia and Japan, showed support. U.S. and Australia 6 Aug expressed concern over Chinese military and coastguard activity. President Lai Ching-te 13 Aug received U.S. congressional delegation at Presidential Office, Taipei city; sides underscored shared democratic values and importance of deterrence. Japanese lawmakers 12-14 Aug embarked on three-day visit to Taipei to engage in talks with VP Hsiao Bi-khim on regional peace and security; President Lai 21 Aug received another Japanese delegation led by former PM Noda Yoshihiko, where Lai remarked that Taipei will “work hand in hand” with Tokyo to defend regional peace and security.
Taiwanese are increasingly having a very distinctive identity different from the mainland China, and... we are seeing a Beijing that is increasingly more powerful.
This election [in Taiwan] marks a change in leadership at a moment when cross-strait tensions are high, and preserving stability has become more of a challenge.
The more Beijing employs coercion on Taiwan, the less effective these actions will [be] on striking fear in the Taiwanese public.
The Xi-Biden meeting provides an … opportunity for the two leaders to convey to each other that neither seeks to overturn the status quo or kinetic conflict.
Beijing will have to publicly condemn [Taiwan President] Tsai’s visit to the US, their ultimate response will depend on what Tsai says and who she meets with on her trip.
At the moment, we think that China has not fully developed the capability to guarantee a sure victory if it chooses to launch a military option on Taiwan.
In this in-person event, experts discuss the political and security situation in and around the Taiwan Strait and how the unofficial relationships between Taiwan and key regional actors may evolve under a new Taiwanese administration.
In this video, Amanda Hsiao explains what is at stake in the dynamic between China, the U.S. and Taiwan and what steps can be taken to reduce pressure in the region.
The danger of armed confrontation over Taiwan is growing, raising the spectre of a direct conflict between China and the U.S. that would have severe global repercussions. Managing this risk will require the parties to rebuild trust by shoring up decades-old understandings.
In this video, Crisis Group’s Giustra Fellow for China Ivy Kwek talks about her work monitoring tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
A visit by Taiwan’s leader to the U.S. brought swift condemnation from China, which stepped up its military activities in the strait separating the mainland from the island. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Amanda Hsiao looks at what these events might portend.
No matter what immediate tit-for-tat reactions there are to the visit, the troubling long-term implication points to the urgent need for the Biden administration and Congress to better coordinate their handling of the Taiwan issue.
Nancy Pelosi, the speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, is planning a visit to Taiwan in early August. In this Q&A, Crisis Group expert Amanda Hsiao identifies steps the U.S. and China can take to keep frictions minimal should her trip proceed.
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