A preliminary agreement with Somaliland giving landlocked Ethiopia access to the Gulf of Aden has heightened tensions in the Horn of Africa, a region already in turmoil. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain the implications of the controversial accord.
Tensions continued to mount ahead of concurrent party and presidential elections scheduled for 13 Nov amid concerns votes may not take place on time.
As opposition continued to allege partiality of National Election Commission in favour of President Bihi, body’s chairperson 5 June warned ruling Kulmiye party against undermining commission’s autonomy. Disagreements persisted over election technology as some Kulmiye officials continued to push for deployment of eye scanners at polling stations to confirm voter identities, while opposition Waddani party raised doubts about practicality. Adding to tensions, govt 20 June arrested Waddani supporter at Hargeisa airport upon his return to country, sparking protests. Clan-based political tensions could also hinder elections after Bihi 9 June stated members of Gacaan Libaah movement that rebelled against govt in Aug 2023 would face trial, contradicting previous agreement and potentially reigniting dispute. Meanwhile, Horseed political association 2 June reiterated decision not to participate in upcoming party elections, alleging system favoured three officially recognised political parties.
What Somaliland is probably trying to do by saying there are terrorists involved in the fighting is to discredit their opponent.
This week on The Horn, Alan speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's Senior Analyst for Eastern Africa, about the implications for Somalia of a possible port deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland and the risks of an escalation in regional tensions.
This edition includes entries on Bangladesh, DR Congo, Ethiopia and Somaliland, offering a snapshot into emergent conflicts and crises in the next three to six months in a clear, accessible format, identifying triggers, key dates to watch and potential behaviour of conflict actors, to support global conflict prevention efforts.
Somaliland’s army and Dhulbahante militias are fighting for control of the town of Las Anod. The Dhulbahante want to join Somalia rather than be part of Somaliland’s state-building project. The two sides should agree to a ceasefire and prepare for overdue talks on the Dhulbahante’s administrative status.
Somaliland took an important step toward stable democracy with parliamentary and local council polls on 31 May. To keep moving in this direction, authorities and the opposition should build consensus on how to run future voting and how to make the government more inclusive.
This week on The Horn, Alan Boswell welcomes Dr. Mohamed Farah Hersi to discuss Somaliland’s evolving role in the Horn of Africa as it works to legitimise itself on the global stage following an unexpected outcome in a recent parliamentary election.
Ethiopia, the U.S. and the EU have brokered surprise talks between the Somalia and Somaliland administrations, which are historically opposed, though progress has stalled while both sides prepare for elections. The parties should cooperate on technical issues, pending a shot at deeper dialogue.
Somalia and Somaliland have been at odds since the latter’s 1991 declaration of independence, which the former rejects. The dispute has cooled after heating up in 2018, but lingering tensions could threaten regional stability. To restart dialogue, the two sides should meet for technical talks.
A dispute between Puntland and Somaliland over the contested areas of Sool and Sanaag risks escalating into open war. The UN, supported by states with influence on the two sides, should renew diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire and press both to enter negotiations.
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