CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA) rebels continued strategy of attacking refugee camps, burning Apac camp 9 June, killing 20. Two killed 19 June in ambush on Rapid Response NGO aid truck in northern Uganda bound for Sudan. Government claims LRA increasingly weak, citing 36 dead in Kilak Hills helicopter gunship raid 22 June. Uganda continued to question Sudanese army’s role in protecting LRA rebels in southern Sudan. President Yoweri Museveni re- iterated support for DR Congo peace process, denying involvement in recent troubles and suggesting Congolese rebel General Nkunda would be arrested if he entered Uganda.
UN envoy claimed looming food disaster affecting 5 million, dismissing Mugabe claims of production increase. Uncertainty continued over land reform as authorities disavowed 9 June statement by government minister asserting all productive farmland would be nationalised; government said 15 June policy unchanged and applied only to land acquired under “fast-track” program. MDC opposition claimed judicial obstruction of electoral disputes, as High Court appeal against Mugabe’s re-election thrown out. Zimbabwean newspaper, Tribune, shut down by government 11 June.
NATO leaders announced 28 June increased - but less than hoped for - troop deployment as security continued to worsen. NATO agreed to send approx. 1,500 extra military personnel to Kabul and north during elections, further 700 to take command of 4 northern Provincial Reconstruction Teams. President Karzai and Washington remain committed to September elections: about 5.2 million of nearly 10 million eligible voters registered but process slowed in south and east by militant violence. Election workers targeted: 2 killed by blast in eastern city of Jalalabad 26 June. Taliban guerrillas reportedly killed 16 in Oruzgan province for carrying voter registration cards. U.S. and Afghan forces intensified operations in south, killing 23 militants 8 June. Two U.S. troops killed in Kunar province on border with Pakistan 24 June. Insurgent attacks also spread to north: 5 Médecins Sans Frontières staff killed in northwestern province of Badghis. In addition, 11 Chinese workers, 4 locals killed in northern Kunduz, though Taliban denied responsibility.
Report from Bureau of Human Rights Bangladesh 29 June indicates increased political killings and violence. Fifty wounded in 21 June explosion at opposition Awami League (AL) rally in northeastern district of Sunamganj. AL members returned to parliament 15 June, year after it declared boycott of parliamentary sessions.
15th anniversary of Tiananmen Square massacre marked by thousands of demonstrators in Hong Kong, and quietly across rest of China. Police arrested handful of protesters in Beijing.
New government of PM Manmohan Singh sworn in 2 June with opposition claiming number of ministers “tainted”. Indian and Pakistani foreign secretaries met 27-28 June to discuss nuclear confidence-building measures and Kashmir as part of ongoing peace process. Landmine attack in eastern Jharkhand state 23 June killed 6 - blamed on leftist separatist People’s War Group (PWG). Attack followed 8 June offer of talks by Andhra Pradesh state government. PWG demanded more concessions before negotiating. Northeastern separatist groups continued campaigns: United Liberation Front of Asom attacked cinema hall with grenades 9 June, wounding 16; National Liberation Front of Tripura reportedly kidnapped 24 traders 14 June.
Indian and Pakistani foreign secretaries met 27-28 June to discuss nuclear confidence-building measures and Kashmir as part of ongoing peace process. Expert-level talks on nuclear CBMs in Islamabad 19-20 June and low-level and unscheduled talks between foreign ministers on sidelines of Asia Cooperation Dialogue conference in China 20-21 June resulted in renewed ban on nuclear tests, and agreement to set up hotline between foreign ministries and reopen Karachi, Mumbai consulates. Attacks on civilians, clashes between security forces and militants continued. Three separate grenade attacks in Pahalgam, Handwara and Kunzer killed 7; 1 attack claimed by little-known Al-Nasreen group. Twelve Muslims, including 4 children, killed in shooting 26 June. India’s interior minister indicated government likely to hold peace talks with Kashmiri separatists in July.
First direct presidential election set for 5 July. Polls indicate Democratic Party candidate Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono clear favourite. Clashes in Aceh continued; at least 18 suspected rebels, 3 soldiers killed. Exiled leaders of separatist Free Aceh Movement (GAM), including “prime minister” Malik Mahmood, arrested for “crimes violating international law” in Sweden: later released. Trial of Rusman Gunawan, charged re Jakarta’s August 2003 Marriott hotel blast, started 21 June. Attorney General’s office announced Muslim cleric and suspected JI leader Abu Bakar Baasyir’s case ready for trial. New constitutional court overturned controversial January 2003 decision to divide Papua by creating new provinces of West and Central Irian Jaya; interior ministry appealing decision. In central Papua, conflict between Damal and Nduga tribes resolved after 4 killed, over 120 injured. Investigations into April/May Ambon violence continued with members of Christian group arrested on arson charges but no progress on sniper attacks. Maluku police, including son-in-law of separatist Front for Moluccan Sovereignty leader Alex Manuputty, reportedly involved in violence. ICG Southeast Asia project director Sidney Jones and analyst Francesca Lawe-Davies expelled from Indonesia 6 June, generating much local controversy and international concern.
Six-way talks ended in Beijing 25 June. U.S. changed tactics with proposal involving energy aid, security guarantees in return for North Korean disclosure of nuclear program, submission to inspections and pledge to begin eliminating program after preparatory period of 3 months. ‘Cautious’ response from Pyongyang welcomed proposal but stressed remaining differences. All parties have agreed in principle to meet again in September.
U.S. Congress voted to continue economic, political sanctions. National League for Democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and deputy chairman Tin Oo remain under house arrest. EU’s objection to Myanmar participating in Asian-Europe Meeting (ASEM) caused cancellations of 2 finance meetings, but ASEM October summit in Hanoi to go ahead with Myanmar represented. Talks held with India on joint military action against Indian separatists: 2,000 rebels from insurgent groups in India’s northeastern states of Assam, Manipur, Nagaland have bases inside Myanmar’s northern Sagaing region.
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