CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
Government announced intention to dissolve its intelligence agency on grounds agency still had ties to former President Fujimori and his jailed spy chief Vladimiro Montesinos. Intelligence chief resigned early in month for allegedly plotting against government; successor resigned 2 days later after being investigated for corruption. Supporters of Fujimori launched new political party - though he faces numerous criminal charges if returns from exile in Japan.
Increased tension over effort to hold referendum to recall President Chavez. Electoral council handed down official ruling 2 March that 1 million of 3.4 million signatures on recall petition needed to be reaffirmed, effectively preventing referendum. Ruling led to hundreds of thousands protesting, and some 14 deaths, several hundred wounded, 300 detained and charges of torture. Electoral Chamber of Supreme Court overruled Election Board, then Constitutional Chamber of Supreme Court purported to overrule Electoral Chamber decision 23 March - leading to standoff in Supreme Court and uncertainty over recall status. Matter now before Court’s full 20-member plenary chamber for final decision. Decision against referendum likely to lead to renewed large scale protests and violence. Venezuelan ambassador to UN resigned to protest growing authoritarianism of government.
Candidates began campaigning ahead of 8 April presidential election, which President Bouteflika favoured to win. Protesters in Kabylia region expected to go ahead with planned boycott of poll but part of Kabyle electorate likely to vote. Skirmishes between military and Islamist rebels continued. U.S. special forces reported to be active in Sahel region (Mali and Niger) but presence in southern Algeria has been officially denied.
Court convicted 26 people of membership in banned Islamic group Hizb ut-Tahrir. Human Rights Watch released report saying government continues to arrest and routinely torture homosexuals.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors returned to Iran 27 March. Tehran had imposed indefinite freeze on inspections following 13 March IAEA resolution which “deplored” Iran’s less than full accounting of its nuclear activities in October declaration.
Interim Governing Council signed provisional constitution after series of delays caused by objections from Shiite members and by bloody attacks on Shiite pilgrims, which left over 100 dead 2 March. Constitution to take effect upon U.S. handover of power to transitional administration 30 June. Influential Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani voiced opposition to document, saying it enshrines ethnic and religious differences, while other Shiites expressed concern over power given to Kurdish minority. Violence continued unabated, with attackers targeting Iraqis seen cooperating with Coalition. Blast at Mount Lebanon hotel 17 March killed 7; several other hotels targeted by rocket attacks. Four U.S. contractors killed in Fallujah 31 March; bodies hung from bridge by angry mob. Unease among U.S. allies as incoming Spanish PM Zapatero, in wake of deadly Madrid bombings, declared would withdraw troops unless they are given UN mandate by 30 June; and Polish president Kwasniewski said country was “misled” over WMD in Iraq. 350 Coalition soldiers, including 301 Americans, killed by hostile fire since declared end of combat operations on 1 May 2003.
Israeli airstrike killed Hamas founder and spiritual leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin along with 7 others in Gaza 22 March, sparking fears of major escalation in violence. Attack sent hundreds of thousands of Palestinians into streets and drew international condemnation. Dr Abel Aziz Rantisi, one of Hamas’s most combative figures, selected as new leader for Gaza Strip. Killing of Yassin came week after Israel launched series of raids into Gaza in response to 14 March twin suicide bombings in Israeli port Ashdod, which left 10 dead. Israeli assault on 2 Palestinian refugee camps in Gaza 7 March killed 14, including 10 gunmen and 3 boys. Ariel Sharon said Likud party referendum would decide fate of Gaza pullout plan. Israeli chief prosecutor officially recommended indictment of Sharon; final decision to be made by attorney- general, likely in April.
King Abdullah held secret meeting with Ariel Sharon to discuss Israel’s controversial security fence, which Jordan fears may lead to influx of Palestinian refugees. Group of parliamentarians in Amman expressed outrage at Jordanian participation in new research centre on Jordanian-Israeli border funded jointly from Jordan, Israel and U.S.
Hizbollah guerrillas launched attacks on Israeli military positions in Shebaa Farms area 22 March, drawing retaliatory strikes by Israeli forces. Attacks in response to Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. Hizbollah vowed further revenge. Two Palestinians killed 23 March in Israeli airstrike in south Lebanon after allegedly firing missiles into Israel. Signs of unrest among students as 300 demonstrated in Beirut 12 March against Syrian presence in Lebanon.
High-level visits marked Libya’s return to international fold: U.S. Assistant Secretary of State William Burns met with Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi 23 March, followed 2 days later by visit from UK PM Tony Blair. Earlier in month Libya signed nuclear protocol allowing snap inspections.
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