CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Europe & Central Asia

Kosovo

Document presented to UN Security Council by head of UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK) Harri Holkeri 10 December spelling out standards to be met in democracy, rule of law, market economy and refugee returns before discussion of final status. UN lamented slow progress in minority returns and integration. Twelve Kosovo Protection Corps (KPC) officers suspended for 6 months by UN while investigation conducted into suspected involvement in March bombing. Kosovo’s parliament voted to nullify all laws passed in the province during Milosevic’s rule; move immediately condemned by Kosovo Serb leaders and overturned by UNMIK.

Kyrgyzstan

Amendment placing restrictions on foreign media coverage of elections passed by parliament, drawing strong criticism, particularly from Russian press. In south, Uzbek police illegally crossed border 10 December in attempt to arrest Kyrgyz citizen. Raid thwarted by citizen’s neighbours. Uzbek raids into Kyrgyzstan reported frequently; targets usually Muslims suspected of extremism.

Moldova

Peace efforts in disarray following Chisinau’s last- minute rejection, in November, of controversial Russian proposal for ending dispute with breakaway Transdniestrian region. OSCE annual meeting, in Maastricht, ended in stalemate 2 December, with Russia failing to garner support for its plan, and other OSCE members unable to commit Russia to deadline for withdrawing its troops from Transdniestria. Officials in Tiraspol, Transdniestrian capital, declared suspension of Russian military evacuation in retaliation for Moldovan government’s failure to accept Russian proposal.

North Macedonia

Decade-long foreign military presence in Macedonia ended 15 December as EU operation Concordia was officially replaced by a police support mission, Proxima. Six-week voluntary disarmament program also finished 15 December, yielding about 8,000 illegal weapons. Estimates of number of illegal weapons in the country range from 100– 170,000, but compared with similar initiatives in the region, the campaign was a success.

Northern Ireland (UK)

No progress in political stalemate as DUP maintained refusal to work with Sinn Fein. Three Assembly members defected from David Trimble’s moderate UUP to ally with Ian Paisley's DUP. IRA and loyalist ceasefires held. Review of the Good Friday Agreement due to start in January. Blair and Ahern met Sinn Fein 17 December to push for further commitments on peace process.

Serbia

Parliamentary elections 28 December ushered in period of political instability. Nationalist Serbian Radical Party (SRS) led by indicted war criminal Vojislav Seselj won largest number of seats (82 of 240) in parliamentary elections; Milosevic's SPS won 21 seats. DSS led by Vojislav Kostunica won 53 seats, Democratic Party 37 and G17+ won 34. Neither Radicals not SPS likely to be in new government, but can block reforms. The new government, of whatever composition, likely to be short-lived. Recent ICTY indictments fuelled domestic debate about cooperation with Hague tribunal. SRS vowed not to extradite any more ICTY indictees to The Hague. Highly politicised trial of 44 suspects in March assassination of Premier Zoran Djindjic commenced in Belgrade 22 December, with chaotic scenes as defence lawyers walked out.

Tajikistan

Mamadruzi Iskandarov, head of Democratic Party of Tajikistan (DPT), dismissed as head of Tajikgas (a government post). Government blamed him for energy problems, but Iskandarov claimed decision political. Move part of continued pressure on opposition party members; DPT had been critical of June referendum on constitutional changes. Further controversy over decision by state publishing house not to print Ruz-i-Nav newspaper. Speculation that regime marking limits for opposition activity ahead of elections in early 2005.

Türkiye

Investigations into November bombings that claimed 62 lives indicated al Qaeda financing. Around 30 arrested including individual suspected of making four bombs used in attacks..

Turkmenistan

Authorities cracking down on NGOs. Har- assment of staff reportedly increasing, and new law gives state effective control over all NGO activities. President Niazov runs region’s most repressive regime, limiting population’s access to information, restricting travel abroad, and stifling dissent.

Uzbekistan

Human rights situation remains bleak. In latest move to muzzle dissent, government forced cancellation of conference on death penalty. President Islam Karimov appointed hardline governor of Samarkand region, Shavkat Mirziyoev, as new PM, replacing Utkir Sultanov. Move seen as serious setback for political and economic reform.

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