Indonesian Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) member Taufik Rifki arrested 2 October; Philippine police call him key leader. Raid by military in Mindanao 19 October turned up bomb-making materials and instructions, and documents referring to JI, fuelling suspicion of cooperation between Indonesian and local militants (MILF denies links). After escaping jail in July, Indonesian JI leader Fathur Rohman al-Ghozi killed in alleged shoot-out with government troops 13 October. Al-Ghozi given martyr’s burial when body returned to Indonesia. Despite July ceasefire, government forces clashed with MILF rebels in Zamboanga 14 October, killing five. Talks underway in Norway between government and communist rebels, New People’s Army.

Security situation stabilising; Australian- led multinational intervention force began drawdown 27 October. Force to be reduced to 100 armed troops and 500 other military staff. Rapid reaction force will remain on high alert in Townsville, Australia, deployable within 24 hours. Leaders of all main rebel groups arrested; 3,700 weapons collected and destroyed.

LTTE (Tamil Tigers) meeting took place in Ireland between 10-15 October to consider government proposal of power-sharing body for north and east – LTTE presented counter-proposal to government 31 October. Document outlines ethnically representative interim assembly for five-year period followed by referendum on new constitution. Preliminary meeting planned for November and formal negotiations to recommence early 2004.

Talk of independence back on front pages in Taiwan after President Chen Shui-bian called for new constitution in 2006 and right to hold referendums, and gave outspoken interview to Washington Post. U.S. officials responded with concern and reaffirmed support for “One China” principle. 100,000 marched in southern Taiwanese city of Kaohsiung in support of president, prompting rebuke from China.

OSCE Minsk Group reportedly planning attempt at kickstarting peace talks in wake of Azerbaijani presidential election 15 October, but group’s efforts have brought little progress to date.

Ilham Aliyev, son of retiring president Heidar Aliyev, said to have received 77% of vote in widely-criticised presidential elections. At least three killed and hundreds injured in post-election violence as police attacked supporters of opposition leader Isa Gambar. International observers reported numerous violations, including ballot-stuffing and voter intimidation, and wave of politically motivated arrests.

Plan to become ‘free-associated state’ (sovereign state associated with Spain) approved by Basque regional government 24 October causing considerable tension. Plan to be debated by regional parliament 4 November; if approved, to be put to referendum. Dependent legally, however, on 60% approval by national parliament. Spanish Government to challenge in constitutional court. 11 lorries bombed in Basque border town 12 October, Spanish national day – police blame Basque separatists ETA, who have carried out similar operations in previous years. French and Spanish police arrested 34 for suspected ETA links in joint operation. Government strongly denied ETA accusations of torture – UN envoy Theo van Boven to investigate in coming months.

High Rep. Paddy Ashdown reported Bosnia’s major ethnic groups beginning to cooperate: draft laws on intelligence and indirect tax reform formerly held up by political bickering now await parliamentary endorsement; integration of Serb and Bosniak armies under single national command finally underway. NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson announced 9 October NATO would likely leave Bosnia within 12-18 months. One notable shortcoming is Bosnia’s cooperation with ICTY. U.S. State Department’s Pierre Richard Prosper said 7 October that NATO Partnership for Peace membership and European integration hinged on Karadzic arrest.

Akhmad Kadyrov, Moscow’s hand- picked candidate for Chechen presidency, emerged victorious with reported 81% of 5 October vote. Despite official statements of high voter turnout, election widely seen as farce. Results did nothing to quell violence: according to Russian official, rebels launched 16 attacks against government positions in 24-hour period 18-19 October.

Sporadic violence continues following failed autonomy referendum and arrests of eight separatists in July. Series of explosions 16-19 October indirectly targeting commercial interests linked to mainland France. Police barracks in southern Corsica hit by rocket 25 October. Corsican National Liberation Front bombed Paris tax office 11 October. 10 October attack on air force barracks in Nice also being investigated for link to Corsican separatists. Visits by French interior minister Nicolas Sarkozy 16 and 30 October urging dialogue; new push to address organised crime link.