September 2003

Kremlin-backed candidate, Akhmad Kadyrov, looks set to win 5 October presidential election in Chechnya after two key opponents dropped out of race. Rebels vow to continue violence in run-up to vote. Six Russian soldiers killed in attacks on 18 and 19 September and seventh in landmine blast, days after truck bomb at security building in southern Russia killed two and wounded 25. Chechnya’s acting president admitted to hospital with case of poisoning – unknown whether poisoning was deliberate.

French justice minister visited Corsica on 1 September following upsurge in violence in August. Suspected separatist bomb damaged supermarket on 5 September.

Unlikely to be any progress in UN-led efforts to reunify Cyprus until December elections in Turkish Cyprus. Greek Cypriot president says he believes decisions about Cyprus are made by Turkey, not Turkish Cypriot leader.

OSCE election monitoring experts arrived in Tbilisi ahead of 2 November parliamentary elections. Run-up to vote characterised by incidents of violence and widespread pessimism that elections will be fair. Increasing crime levels also raising concern. Justice minister resigned after mass jail break on 10 September; over 50 prisoners remain at large. U.S. announced cut in aid to Georgia, particularly to energy sector. Kidnappings and sporadic confrontations between guerrillas and Abkhazian forces reported in recent weeks. New PM approved by parliament in breakaway province of South Ossetia.

Corruption allegations continue to dog region’s wealthiest country. Former Mobil Oil exec. sentenced in New York to four years in prison on charges relating to bribery scheme involving U.S. consultant James Giffen, accused of giving kickbacks to Kazakh Government in exchange for oil contracts. Pro-government “Fatherland” party swept local council elections held on 20 September. Dariga Nazarbayeva, president’s daughter, announced creation of new pro- government political party, with herself as head.

New UNMIK chief Harri Holkeri secured backing of the Contact Group for talks on technical issues between Belgrade and Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian leadership to start in Vienna mid-October. Unready and disunited, Kosovo politicians responded with buck-passing and threatened non-attendance, arguing UN administration must transfer them more governmental competencies if they are to negotiate with Belgrade on equal footing. If talks take place, will be first since NATO’s 1999 bombing. Insecurity over Kosovo’s future status contributed to failure of UN weapons amnesty program.

Dissatisfaction with government remains high, particularly in south. President Akayev vowed not to run for fifth term in 2005, but there is speculation that Akayev’s wife, or even daughter, may be groomed to succeed him. Journalist, reportedly investigating high-level corruption, found dead; police say no evidence of foul play.

Talks on dispute with breakaway region of Transdniestria remain stalled. EU still discussing possibility of sending peacekeepers to region. Russian troops appear likely to remain despite agreement promising pull-out by year’s end.

Montenegrin politics continue to be overshadowed by allegations of smuggling and human trafficking.

At least two gunmen killed in clash with Macedonian security forces near Kosovo border (Brest). Shadowy Albanian National Army claimed responsibility. Police vowed to hunt down ethnic Albanian militants. The incident appears to have destabilised – temporarily – Macedonia’s ruling coalition. EU agreed to deploy 200-strong police force in Macedonia by 15 December.