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Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

South Africa

President Ramaphosa opened parliament and outlined agenda for govt of national unity; several officials working to investigate corruption killed. 

New govt promised to deliver growth and national unity. President Ramaphosa 18 July opened parliament and presented govt of national unity – comprised of African National Congress, centre-right Democratic Alliance and eight other parties; top priorities include driving inclusive economic growth, tackling inequality and developing capable state. Opposition immediately criticised address, with uMkhonto weSizwe party (MKP) spokesperson Nhlamulo Ndhlele labelling it “lies, lies, lies, continuous lies”. Earlier, MKP 3 July dropped its court challenge against results of May elections.

Gunmen targeted lawyer and officials tackling corruption. Two gunmen 18 July tried to assassinate lawyer in Durban city working for govt on high-profile tax inquiry; police minister 19 July promised swift action against “attack on our democracy”. Earlier in Johannesburg, gunmen 11 July killed local govt investigator working on corruption in municipality. 

In other important developments. U.S. 23 July announced sanctions against two South Africa-based individuals for enabling activities of Islamic State (ISIS) and its leaders in eastern, central and southern Africa; Washington accused them of transferring funds and serving as critical links between ISIS branches in DR Congo, Mozambique and Somalia, and ISIS cells in South Africa. Security forces 25 July raided suspected military training camp run by private security company near White River town, Mpumalanga province, and arrested 95 Libyan nationals for allegedly misrepresenting their visa status.

Africa

South Africa

Ruling African National Congress (ANC) lost parliamentary majority in landmark election but formed unity govt; largest opposition party challenged results in court. 

President Ramaphosa re-elected to lead broad coalition. Electoral commission 2 June announced results of 29 May general election as incumbent ANC lost parliamentary majority for first time since democratic transition in 1994, securing 40% of vote and 159 out of 400 parliamentary seats, down from 57.5% and 230 in 2019; centrist-right Democratic Alliance came second (22%, 87 seats) followed by new uMkhonto weSizwe party (MKP) led by former President Zuma (14.5%, 58 seats). Electoral authorities declared polls “free and fair”, dismissing allegations of widespread irregularities lodged by MKP. ANC 14 June signed statement of intent with Democratic Alliance and Zulu nationalist Inkatha Freedom Party to form govt of national unity, ensuring that new parliament 15 June re-elected Ramaphosa as president. ANC 17 June invited all parties to participate in coalition and ten (including ANC) agreed to join, giving unity govt 287 seats in parliament. MKP and populist Economic Freedom Fighters declined, choosing to form “progressive” opposition caucus in parliament instead. After fraught negotiations between ANC and Democratic Alliance over number of cabinet posts for each party, Ramaphosa 30 June announced 32-member multi-party cabinet comprising 20 ANC ministers, six from Democratic Alliance and rest from several small parties. 

Opposition party led by former president alleged election rigging. MKP leader Zuma 2 June rejected results and demanded election re-run as he claimed polls suffered from serious irregularities. Party 16 June launched legal challenges seeking to declare election invalid without providing evidence of malfeasance; MPs from MKP stayed away from 14-15 June first sitting of parliament and Ramaphosa’s 19 June inauguration but were sworn in 25 June.  

Africa

South Africa

Tight general elections held as ruling African National Congress (ANC) projected to lose majority; dispute over Zuma’s eligibility increased risk of unrest. 

Polls held as ANC projected to lose majority for first time. General elections took place 29 May as voting day went peacefully, with high voter turnout expected to be reported; full results announced in June. Amid heightened tensions in lead-up to vote, Constitutional Court 20 May barred former President Zuma, leader of newcomer uMkhonto weSizwe party (MKP), from contesting polls due to his 2021 conviction for contempt of court; decision overturned Electoral Court’s April ruling permitting Zuma to run. MKP alleged that Independent Electoral Commission and Constitutional Court colluded with ANC to rig elections. MKP members 25 May broke into ballot storage sites in Chesterville and Hammarsdale towns in KwaZulu-Natal province, alleging voting material had been altered, and also threatened election officer in Chesterville; electoral commission condemned incidents. President Ramaphosa 26 May listed govt achievements in speech on South African Broadcasting Corporation, prompting MKP and opposition Democratic Alliance to each file urgent affidavit in Electoral Court accusing Ramaphosa of violating electoral code of conduct by using presidential office to influence elections outcome; Ramaphosa 29 May said he merely provided update on country’s state of readiness for elections. 

Ruling party members clashed with opposition supporters. ANC members and supporters 19 May clashed with members of populist opposition Economic Freedom Fighters during ANC campaign event in Seshego township, Limpopo province, as rival party members reportedly threw stones escalating into exchange of gunfire that wounded two bystanders. Electoral Commission 23 May convened both parties to diffuse tensions in area ahead of polls. Suspected political dispute between ANC and MKP members 26 May in Kathlehong township, Gauteng province, resulted in two MKP members shot and killed. 

Africa

South Africa

Former President Zuma won court bid to contest May polls, while delegitimisation campaign against election commission continued. 

Ahead of 29 May general elections, electoral court 9 April upheld uMkhonto weSizwe party (MKP) appeal in bid to keep its leader and former President Zuma on parliamentary candidate list, overturning Independent Electoral Commission (IEC)’s March objection to his running due to Zuma’s 2021 conviction for defying court order. IEC 14 April filed appeal with Constitutional Court and 29 April called for expedited police investigation into whether MKP forged registration signatures; Zuma and MKP continued to claim legal battles showed alleged electoral authority bias against former president, calling for lead commissioner’s resignation. Meanwhile, Zuma and allies continued delegitimisation campaign including alleging collusion between IEC and ruling African National Congress (ANC) to rig elections, while also claiming MKP would win two-thirds majority; President and ANC leader Ramaphosa and IEC – which despite these efforts retained widespread public trust – denied collusion accusations. Despite high level of political tensions, Zuma’s permission to run appeared to defuse concerns that unrest could be sparked by radical rhetoric employed by MKP members, with no apparent electoral-related violence reported during month; authorities 3 April charged MKP leader for inciting unrest through March inflammatory statements while party 10 April also demoted four youth leaders for using similar rhetoric. MKP 26 April said it had expelled five “rogue” members including co-founder Jabulani Khumalo as part of attempts to “cleanse itself”.

Africa

South Africa

Political tensions increased ahead of May general elections, with continued electoral violence in KwaZulu-Natal province.

Ahead of May elections, tensions ran particular high between ruling African National Congress (ANC) and former President Zuma’s newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe party (MKP), predominately in key battleground KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province. Amid inflammatory statements and rhetoric, electoral violence continued to plague build-up to polls; notably, in KZN capital Durban, unidentified gunmen 2 March killed MKP organiser in Umlazi township, while ANC accused MKP of being responsible for aggravating strike by municipal workers in eThekwini municipality; industrial action ran late Feb to mid-March and caused unrest and destruction of infrastructure, while on-duty municipal worker died after strikers allegedly attacked her. Also, ANC members 16 March clashed with members of opposition Inkhata Freedom Party (IFP) during cultural ceremony in KwaNongoma town, injuring sixteen. Election commission 28 March announced Zuma barred from being candidate in election due to 2021 conviction for defying court order, further raising political tensions. Amid polling suggesting ANC may get under 50% of vote nationally for first time since transition from apartheid system to democracy in 1994, deputy secretary general of party Nomvula Mokonyane 13 March said ANC not in talks over coalition.

Africa

South Africa

Electoral tensions continued to run high in KwaZulu-Natal province ahead of general elections set for May.

President Ramaphosa’s office 20 Feb scheduled general elections to elect new National Assembly and legislature in each province for 29 May. Meanwhile, electoral violence persisted amid steep competition in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) province, key battleground for May elections. Unidentified gunmen 7 Feb killed Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) councillor of Nongoma local municipality, KZN, bringing total number of reported political assassinations in province since July 2023 to six. Police same day said political killings task team is investigating cases. Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) early Feb dismissed former President Jacob Zuma’s claims that IEC is colluding with ruling African National Congress (ANC) to rig elections, challenging him to produce evidence, and urged all political leaders to exercise restraint; comments came after Zuma – who is campaigning mainly in KZN for newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe party – and his allies late Jan doubled down on criticism of ANC and IEC.

Africa

South Africa

Most violent unrest since end of apartheid in 1991 killed over 300. After former President Zuma 7 July began serving 15-month prison sentence for refusing to testify in corruption probe, riots next day erupted in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng provinces, with mobs blocking major highways, looting shops and warehouses. Protesters 11 July marched through capital Johannesburg, with acts of vandalism reported. Rioters 13 July looted warehouses and supermarkets in port city of Durban, forcing country’s largest refinery on city’s outskirts to shut down temporarily, while roads to Durban’s harbour – sub-Saharan Africa’s largest – also closed, disrupting fuel and food deliveries as well as key exports. Army 13 July announced dispatch of 25,000 troops to provinces. President Ramaphosa 16 July said calm had been restored and unrest was “deliberate, coordinated and well-planned attack on our democracy”; also announced arrest of over 2,500 people for alleged involvement in violence. Govt 22 July said 337 people killed during unrest. Zuma 19 July sought further delay of corruption trial; High Court in Pietermaritzburg city next day granted request, adjourning proceedings by three weeks to 10-13 Aug.

Africa

South Africa

Following Aug-Sept xenophobic violence, foreign nationals 8 Oct began sit-in protest near office of UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Cape Town demanding relocation out of South Africa; refugees and asylum seekers 20 Oct also protested outside UNHCR offices in Pretoria and Johannesburg. In Cape Town, police 30 Oct forcibly tried to disperse sit-in protest near UNHCR office, arresting about 100. Ramaphosa attended first Russia-Africa summit in Sochi, Russia 23-24 Oct; for first time two Russian nuclear-ready bombers on training mission landed in South Africa 23 Oct, left 28 Oct.

Africa

South Africa

Xenophobic rioting continued, leaving at least ten people dead, including two foreigners, souring relations between South Africa and other African nations, especially Nigeria. Following riots and attacks on foreign-owned businesses in capital Pretoria late Aug, protests in Johannesburg against foreigners accused of drug-dealing 1 Sept deteriorated into riots and attacks on foreigners and foreign-owned businesses. Violence continued for several days and flared again mid-month in Johannesburg. Security forces arrested over 400. Lorry drivers 1 Sept began nationwide strike to protest employment of foreign drivers, some torched vehicles driven by foreigners and blocked roads in multiple places across country; in response police arrested over twenty people in KwaZulu-Natal province in south east. President Ramaphosa 3 Sept condemned xenophobic attacks. In response, Nigeria 4 Sept recalled its high commissioner to South Africa and refused to attend 4-6 Sept World Economic Forum conference in Cape Town. In Nigeria, following reprisal attacks against South African businesses in capital Abuja and Lagos, South Africa 5 Sept closed diplomatic missions in those cities. Nigeria 11 Sept repatriated 189 citizens from South Africa and said over 600 expected to return. Air Tanzania 5 Sept cancelled flights from Dar es Salaam to Johannesburg and Zambia and Madagascar boycotted football matches in South Africa. President Ramaphosa mid-Sept deployed special envoys to affected countries to brief leaders on actions his govt was taking to address xenophobic violence. After army deployed in Cape Town in Aug to support local police combatting gang violence, govt 26 Sept said military presence would remain for additional three months.

Africa

South Africa

In capital Pretoria, taxi drivers 27 Aug clashed with alleged drug dealers resulting in deadly shooting of one taxi driver. Next day taxi drivers led protests in central business district calling on govt to tackle problem of drug dealers; protests turned into riots with participants looting and setting alight several foreign-owned shops, police fired rubber bullets to disperse rioters and arrested eighteen. Group of Nigerians, angered by looting of shops some of which were Nigerian-owned, 29 Aug protested at Nigerian high commission.

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