President Saïed set October election date amid deteriorating political climate for polls as authorities arrested several opposition candidates.

President set presidential vote and announced his candidacy. Incumbent Saïed 1 July scheduled presidential election for 6 Oct and 19 July confirmed his own candidacy; Saïed said he was answering country’s “sacred call” to keep up fight toward “national liberation”, raising concern he may intend to forcibly secure election (see below). Earlier, Saïed 5 July called for vigilance against destabilisation attempts in pre-election period. In likely attempt to win public support, president 9 July made new social welfare announcement with 33% increase in allowance for poorest families, affecting 310,ooo beneficiaries. Hundreds of pro-Saïed demonstrators 25 July marched in capital Tunis, as families of political prisoners same day gathered in capital to demand their release.

Govt continued to disqualify and imprison opposition candidates. Prosecutor 12 July banned presidential hopeful Abdellatif Makki, former leader of Islamist-inspired An-Nahda party, from travel and media appearances due to alleged involvement in 2014 death of businessman when Makki was health minister. Authorities next day arrested Sec Gen of An-Nahda Ajmi Ouirimi and two party members, fuelling concerns authorities may attempt to dissolve still-popular movement ahead of election. Authorities 13 July also arrested Yadh Elloumi for allegedly buying sponsorship for runner-up in 2019 presidential election, Nabil Karoui, as campaign official. Court 19 July sentenced Lotfi Mraihi, candidate for left-wing opposition Republican People’s Union, to eight months’ imprisonment and ruled him ineligible to run for office for life on charges of corruption and vote buying during previous candidacy in 2019. Rejected candidate Abir Moussi 29 July began hunger strike to protest her exclusion, while candidate Nizar Chaâri next day announced his campaign manager and member of campaign team had been arrested on accusations of forgery. Rights group Amnesty International 16 July and main opposition coalition National Salvation Front next day denounced crackdown, with latter claiming measures create impossible conditions for holding democratic elections. Meanwhile, court 6 July sentenced Saïed critic and prominent lawyer Sonia Dahmani, arrested early May, to one year in prison for spreading “false news”.

Political tensions and scattered unrest continued ahead of presidential election due by October; govt pursued closer ties with China and Iran as EU support wavered. 

Social unrest continued amid uncertainty over presidential vote. Citizens took to social media to denounce hardline police tactics after football fans clashed with police 2 June at Hammadi Agrebi Olympic Stadium in Radès town outside capital Tunis, with sixty arrested and dozens wounded. Inhabitants of Rouai town in Jendouba governate 11 June demonstrated against lack of drinking water; police same day temporarily detained three members of NGO Tunisian Water Observatory, preventing them from covering protests. Presidential election date still unknown despite President Saïed and electoral authority being required to set electoral calendar by late July, at least three months before end of Saïed’s current mandate.

Tunis moved closer to Beijing and Tehran amid fraying relations with EU. Saïed 28 May-1 June participated in Ministerial Conference of Sino-Arab Cooperation Forum in Beijing, resulting in announcement of bilateral strategic partnership in economic, technical and cultural fields. Govt 15 June abolished entry visa requirements for Iranian and Iraqi tourists following Saïed’s late May visit to Tehran. Tensions with European actors continued to grow; despite strong partnership with Rome, Saïed declined invite to 13-15 June G7 summit in Italy, sending PM Hachani instead. EU High Representative Josep Borrell 24 June said Tunisia “very important and longstanding partner” but expressed concern over govt’s “drive closer to Russia, Iran and China”.

In another important development. With Italian support, UN 19 June officially recognised Tunis’ search and rescue zone in Mediterranean Sea as newest measure for limiting migrant flows to Europe.

Tensions erupted as authorities launched string of arrests of journalists, lawyers and activists, provoking widespread uproar. 

Repression of civil society sparked protests and stretched political tensions. Wave of arrests and attacks on activists, journalists and lawyers – including several regime critics – highlighted govt’s authoritarian drift. Notably, police 11 May stormed lawyer association and arrested media commentator and lawyer Sonia Dahmani, and later same day arrested journalists Mourad Zeghidi and Borhen Bsaies; hundreds protested next day in capital Tunis, demanding their release and date for presidential election, mandated for Sept-Oct 2024 but as yet unscheduled. Police 13 May again stormed association and arrested lawyer Mehdi Zagrouba, known critic of President Saïed; lawyers and rights groups alleged security forces tortured Zagrouba while in custody 13-15 May. Lawyers 16 May staged general strike and protested in Tunis to denounce torture of Zagrouba, while Interior Ministry denied accusations. Court 22 May sentenced Zeghidi and Bsaies to one year imprisonment on charges of publishing false news, prompting hundreds to demonstrate in Tunis 24 May. Meanwhile, amid continued migration crisis, govt also cracked down on immigration NGOs. Police early May raided premises of organisations involved in defence of migrants and arrested affiliated activists, including head of Mnemty anti-racist organisation Saadia Mosbah 5 May and asylum rights activist Sherifa Riahi 7 May over supposed financial crimes. Earlier, several hundred people 4 May demonstrated in eastern city of Sfax, demanding departure of migrants, while concerns also grew over presence of vigilante groups. 

Crackdown provoked international backlash and forceful govt defence. After EU, France, U.S. and UN expressed concern over repression, Saïed 15 May ordered Foreign Ministry to summon several foreign ambassadors to protest against external interference; 850 people 19 May demonstrated in Tunis supporting govt and protesting against alleged foreign meddling in domestic affairs. Earlier, Saïed 6 May blamed Western NGOs for migration crisis.

In another important development. Interior ministers of Algeria, Libya and Tunisia 2 May met Italian counterpart Matteo Piantedosi as part of new three-party grouping (see Algeria).

Uncertainty regarding upcoming elections persisted as opposition faced crackdown and youth violence surged in capital Tunis. 

Election uncertainty remained as opposition members faced continued detention. Ahead of Sept-Oct presidential elections, President Saïed 6 April declared he will not let candidates supported by foreigners run, alluding to Mondher Zenaidi, minister under former President Ben Ali currently in exile in France, who in March implied he would run in polls; opposition continued to fear Saïed will limit competition or even cancel elections on claim that his mandate reset in 2022 following adoption of new Constitution. National Council of Regions and Districts 19 April held first session and elected Imed Derbali president, amid fears it may be used to subvert parliament since its prerogatives remained murky. Uncertainty continued over fate of fourteen members of opposition jailed since Feb 2023, with their period in pre-trial custody over the fourteen months maximum under Tunisian law; judges 12 April accused 40 people, including the fourteen opposition members, of terrorism, with accusation chamber to confirm or deny accusations 2 May. Opposition coalition National Salvation Front 30 April announced intention to boycott presidential elections unless political opponents freed and judicial independence restored.

Youth violence surged in Tunis amid worsening economic crisis. After three people early April self-immolated in separate incidents due to deteriorating living conditions, youth gangs 12-13 April clashed in several districts of capital Tunis, resulting in knife injuries and unprecedented degree of violence. Judiciary 15 April delivered 30 detention warrants, with unusually high number leading to fears of criminal group retaliation against police including through riots and clashes. 

In other important developments. Saïed 1 April declared audits into public sector showed many jobs had been obtained through corruption or favouritism, though removal of thousands of public servants could lead to frictions. Govt 22 April hosted Algerian and Libyan heads of state for high-level discussions in Tunis over stronger regional integration (see Algeria).

Thousands protested against deteriorating economic situation, authorities continued preparations for Oct presidential elections, and EU increased support toward migration control.

Protestors rallied against worsening economic and social situation in Tunis. Nearly 2,000 people 3 March demonstrated in capital Tunis to protest against deteriorating social and economic outlook, in show of force organised by Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT). Several trade unionists claimed that break between UGTT and President Saïed’s regime is far from complete; UGTT move may be bid to extract concessions from Saïed in run-up to Oct presidential elections, in particular to obtain pay rises in public sector. Following Feb local elections, 279 local councils held their first meeting on 1 March; councils next day designated members of regional councils in each governorate. A national council comprising members of regional councils is due to be set up shortly; although its prerogatives are not legally clear, it will likely deal with economic and development issues.

Crackdown on dissent continued in lead-up to Oct elections. Mondher Zenaidi, a former minister under former President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali in the 2000s, 6 March published a Facebook post criticising Saïed’s record and implying that he would run in Oct presidential elections; judiciary two days later issued international arrest warrant against him in connection with corruption case linked to privatisation operation in 2005. Independent High Authority for Election and Central Electoral Commission for Russia 15 March signed a memorandum of cooperation in Russia’s capital Moscow; cooperation officially aims at establishing joint cooperation to support electoral processes.

Migrants continued to flee Tunisia by boat, EU stepped up migration support. Media reports 15 March revealed 34 migrants reported missing off the south-eastern coast of Tunisia, 34 others rescued, and two found dead. European Commission 14 March disbursed 150mn euros in budgetary support for Tunisia to improve migration control, even though Tunis failed to meet EU’s own eligibility criteria.

Judicial authorities sentenced several govt critics to prison, including Islamist leader Rached Ghannouchi; President Saïed sent mixed signals on economic policy.

Judicial repression of opposition intensified. Tunis Court 1 Feb sentenced Rached Ghannouchi, imprisoned president of Islamist-inspired An-Nahda movement, and Rafik Abdessalam, his son-in-law and former FM, to three years’ imprisonment on charges of illegal foreign financing of their party. Five imprisoned senior politicians, including members of opposition coalition National Salvation Front, 11 Feb went on hunger strike to protest arbitrary detention; Ghannouchi 19 Feb announced joining strike in solidarity. Tunis courts 23 Jan sentenced former President Marzouki to eight years in prison in absentia for allegedly attempting to overthrow govt; next day sentenced prominent opposition figure Jawher Ben Mbarek to six months in prison on charges of conspiring against state security. Authorities 29 Feb arrested Tunisian General Labour Union’s deputy secretary-general, Tahar Mezzi, on undisclosed charges, before releasing him next day.

Election cycle proceeded despite widespread voter disaffection. Second round of local council elections, which will determine composition of second chamber of parliament, 4 Feb took place in 800 of 2,155 electoral districts. Amid boycott from opposition parties, voter turnout reached just 12.44%, almost as low as in first round. Independent High Authority for Elections 12 Feb said presidential election would be held in 2024 in accordance with Constitution.

Saïed sent mixed signals on economic policy. Parliament 6 Feb adopted amendment allowing “exceptional” direct financing of budget by Central Bank, sparking concerns over latter’s independence, as well as fiscal stability and debt burden. Authorities in following days used foreign currency reserves to pay for $850mn Eurobond, leading to 20% fall in foreign currency reserves by mid-Feb. Meanwhile, Saïed 15 Feb appointed Fethi Nouri as new Central Bank governor to replace Marouane Abassi, whose mandate expired; Nouri has demonstrated commitment to orthodox economic policies as member of Central Bank’s board of directors since 2016.

Crackdown on free speech continued with judicial harassment of journalists, and IMF for first time placed Tunisia on so-called black list.

Repression of dissent continued. Tunis court 10 Jan gave journalist and columnist Zied el-Heni six-month suspended prison sentence for allegedly insulting minister during radio broadcast, and released him from prison, where he had been held since 28 Dec. Authorities 3 Jan arrested Al Jazeera journalist Samir Sassi on suspicion of belonging to “terrorist organisation”, before releasing him few days later. Interior ministry note leaked on social media 13 Jan requested opening of investigation against twenty public figures (most of whom are likely to stand in presidential election due to be held by year’s end) on allegations of money laundering. 

Protesters took to streets on different occasions. Demonstration in support of Palestinians 11 Jan took place in front of South Africa embassy in capital Tunis; protesters expressed support for Pretoria’s genocide case against Israel at International Court of Justice. Hundreds of people 14 Jan demonstrated in Tunis to mark anniversary of 2011 uprising that led to ousting of then-President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, and to demand release of jailed opposition leaders. Demonstrations 17-18 Jan broke out in El Hencha village, north of Sfax city, after boat carrying 37 residents attempting to cross Mediterranean Sea went missing.

In another important development. Tunisia 5 Jan appeared on International Monetary Fund’s “negative list” of countries with over eighteen-month delay in completion of consultations with financial institution. President Saïed late Jan extended state of emergency by eleven months until 31 Dec 2024. 

Local elections recorded low voter turnout amid boycott by parties across political spectrum; repression of govt critics continued.

Local council elections underscored voter disaffection. First round of local elections, which will determine composition of second chamber of parliament, took place 24 Dec; some 150 intellectual and political figures mid Dec signed petition calling for election boycott, saying vote would participate in “consolidation of the system of repression and oppression”. Election Commission 27 Dec placed turnout at 11.84%, highlighting high level of voter disaffection; second round scheduled for Feb 2024.

Crackdown on businessmen and journalists continued. Authorities 12 Dec issued arrest warrant against Adel Grar, former managing director of Al Karama Holding (responsible for sale of companies confiscated during 2010-2011 revolution), for allegedly using his position to obtain unjustified advantage and improperly disposing of public or private funds. Police 28 Dec arrested journalist Zied el-Hani and judge later issued arrest warrant against him for defamation against trade minister. Opposition Free Destourian Party mid Dec said authorities banned demonstration in support of party president Abir Moussi, who has been in detention since 3 Oct following scuffle with staff of president’s palace.

In other important developments. Shortages of basic commodities persisted, leading to tense scenes in queues, filmed and broadcast on social networks. Notably, Tunis region 7 Dec ran out of fuel for several days due to delayed delivery by tanker, and many bakeries around Tunis mid Dec were unable to make bread due to shortage of flour. Meanwhile, interior ministry said National Guard and military personnel 27 Dec killed three “terrorists” in mountainous area of Kasserine near Algerian border.

In surprise move, President Saïed objected to bill criminalising normalisation with Israel, while authorities detained several high-profile businessmen on corruption allegations.

Saïed changed tack on bill to criminalise normalising relations with Israel. Parliament 2 Nov started debating draft law criminalising recognition or establishment of relations with Israel. Parliament Speaker Brahim Bouderbala same day suspended session, citing Saïed’s concern that bill could harm Tunisia’s foreign affairs and security, and Saïed next day confirmed he objected to bill. MP and rapporteur for Rights and Freedoms Committee, Mohamed Ali, 6 Nov said U-turn came after U.S. threatened “economic and military sanctions”.

Security forces arrested several prominent businessmen. Police 7 Nov arrested Marouane Mabrouk, head of country’s largest oligopolistic group and one-time son-in-law of former President Ben Ali, as well as former Transportation Minister Abderrahim Zouari, representative in Tunisia of French car company Peugeot. Judiciary few days later issued arrest warrants against them, notably for corruption and money laundering. Authorities 14 Nov also arrested coordinator of leftist Al Qotb party, Riadh Ben Fadhel, allegedly in relation to his buyback of Ben Ali’s cars. Moves came as mandate of special commission set up in 2022 expired, having failed to collect up to €4bn allegedly looted by businessmen under Ben Ali.

In other important developments. Interior ministry 7 Nov said security and defence forces had apprehended all five individuals convicted of terrorism who late Oct escaped from Mornaguia high-security prison. New clashes between security forces and sub-Saharan African migrants reported 24 Nov in Al Amra neighbourhood on outskirts of country’s second largest city of Sfax, with unclear casualties; police and national guard in following days allegedly locked area down searching for gun and ammunition reportedly lost during confrontation.

Rare prison break prompted govt to dismiss top intelligence officials; crowd torched Jewish mausoleum amid escalation of violence in Gaza Strip.

Five Islamist convicts broke out of prison. Five Islamist prisoners convicted of killing policemen and two secular politicians 31 Oct escaped from Mornaguia prison near capital Tunis. Interior ministry announced dismissing two top officials in intelligence services, while justice ministry sacked director of Mornaguia prison.

Crowd rampaged through Jewish site. As violence escalated in Gaza amid Israel-Hamas war (see Israel/Palestine), thousands 17 Oct gathered in centre of Tunis to condemn Israeli attacks on Gaza Strip and denounce bias of French and other Western media in favour of Israel, demanding departure of French ambassador; rioters same day burned down 16th century El Hamma Jewish mausoleum near Gabès city (south). President Saïed hours later summoned National Security Council, said “the battle today is against international Zionism”, not Jewish people. As protests continued, parliamentary committee 24 Oct approved draft law criminalising normalisation of relations with Israel.

Repression of dissent continued with detention of prominent opposition leader. Presidential guard and police 3 Oct arrested Abir Moussi, president of Free Patriotic Union opposition party, in front of presidential palace as she tried to file appeal against recent presidential decree related to local elections; judge 5 Oct ordered her imprisonment on suspicion of “assault intended to cause chaos”. Around 1,500 supporters of Moussi 15 Oct took to streets of Tunis to demand her immediate release.

Tunis handed back EU money, dealing a blow to controversial migration pact. After European Commission late Sept announced €127mn for Tunisia in support of implementation of “strategic partnership” on economy and migration signed in July, Saïed 2 Oct rejected funds, dismissing “derisory” amount running counter to July agreement. Commission 12 Oct confirmed that Tunis had returned €60mn in budget support. Meanwhile, 2024 draft budget released 16 Oct made no mention of International Monetary Fund deal, and Saïed 17 Oct dismissed economy minister.