CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Polisario Front suspected of involvement in explosion at Moroccan mining infrastructure.

Videos purportedly showing explosion at conveyor belt transporting phosphate near mine in Boucraa town, 100km east of Laayoune in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara, circulated online 4 June. Moroccan media outlets speculated group may be responsible while pro-Polisario activists spoke of planned attack; some believe Polisario also responsible for similar explosion at same phosphate conveyor belt in May 2023. Neither Polisario nor Morocco supported claim of group’s involvement, however, as former feared accusations of terrorism and latter wanted to reassure investors and international partners that Western Sahara is safe and Polisario does not pose threat. 

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Polisario attacked Morocco-controlled area; Algerian and Moroccan officials sparred at UN meeting over Sahrawi independence.

Polisario Front launched attack on Morocco-controlled city. Low-intensity nature of conflict continued as Polisario military units 18 May attacked Smara inside Morocco-controlled Western Sahara, third attack on city since Oct; rockets, however, fell 12km from city in area Morocco claimed is uninhabited, although Polisario argued they hit military targets.

Algeria and Morocco exchanged provocative remarks at international meeting. Algerian UN representative Amar Bendjema proclaimed support for Western Sahara’s right to self-determination at UN decolonisation committee 14-16 May in Venezuelan capital Caracas. In response, Morocco’s UN representative Omar Hilale highlighted his country’s support for same rights for Algeria’s Berber majority region Kabylia. Earlier, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune 8 May delivered speech reiterating Algiers’s steadfast commitment to Sahrawis right to govern themselves. 

In another important development. Over 30 UK lawmakers 23 May signed open letter calling on UK govt to support Moroccan autonomy plan for Western Sahara, which would give Rabat control over area’s national security and foreign affairs.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

UN mediation appeared at standstill; reports emerged of French interest to invest in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara.

UN discussions with Morocco, Algeria and Polisario Front remained stalled. UN envoy Staffan de Mistura 4 April met Moroccan FM Nasser Bourita as latter expressed unwillingness to compromise on stances, including demanding Moroccan overall sovereignty over an autonomous Western Saharan and refusal to allow further process until ceasefire violations end. De Mistura 15 April also met Polisario Front representative to UN Sidi Mohamed Omar and 16 April Algerian FM Ahmed Attaf, where both reiterated their traditional position supporting Western Saharan independence; UN Security Council (UNSC) 16 April held closed door consultations on issue, ahead of which Omar called on UNSC to take tangible action to enable UN Mission to fulfil mandate and allow Western Saharan self-determination and independence.

France reportedly began preparations to invest in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara. News site Africa Intelligence 1 April reported France seeking to finance series of projects in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara, in attempt to try and mend relationship with Morocco. Polisario Front 6 April denounced plans, criticising Morocco for its “intransigence and arrogance” over investment claims. 

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Expert opinion recommending EU court to cancel partnership deal over Western Sahara dealt blow to Morocco; Polisario threatened to sue Spain over possible airspace management transfer.

EU legal adviser backed cancellation of Morocco-EU partnership agreement over Western Sahara. Advocate General for EU Court of Justice Tamara Ćapeta 21 March recommended court to cancel 2019 EU Sustainable Fisheries Partnership Agreement with Morocco as agreement failed “to treat territory of Western Sahara as ‘separate and distinct’ from Morocco”. Ćapeta highlighted that agreement should treat Western Sahara as separate territory from Morocco, also recommended that EU negotiates with Morocco (and not necessarily with Polisario Front) as “administering power” on behalf of local population. Overall, she recommended case be sent to lower court for further discussion. Court of Justice will issue ruling based on this recommendation in coming weeks. 

Polisario threatened legal action against Spain over airspace management transfer. Polisario front representative in Switzerland’s Geneva city 10 March threatened to sue Spain before international judicial bodies if it goes ahead with plans to transfer management of Western Sahara airspace to Morocco.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

UN Envoy continued consultations to revive peace process as international pressure on Morocco and Polisario Front independent movement continued to fade.

De Mistura’s South Africa visit drew Morocco’s ire. UN Envoy Staffan de Mistura 1 Feb visited South Africa, one of Polisario Front independence movement’s main sponsors, in likely attempt to explore what leverage he has over Polisario and put pressure on Rabat by broadening his consultations. Moroccan ambassador to UN, Omar Hilale, 3 Feb condemned trip, said de Mistura ignored Rabat’s “categorical opposition” to visit and “rejection of any interaction with Pretoria on the subject of the Moroccan Sahara question”.

Growing gap between Polisario leadership and more radical activists came to fore. In interview to Spanish left-wing outlet, Nueva Revolución, Mansur Omar, Polisario Front representative to European Union, 10 Feb said Polisario was trying to contain intensity of conflict with Morocco to avoid stoking regional tensions and broaden conflict. Statement, which contradicted conclusions of Jan 2023 Polisario congress calling for military escalation with Morocco, triggered vocal opposition from some Polisario activists, who accused Omar and Polisario leadership of letting down fight for independence of Western Sahara.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Reports of Moroccan artillery movement fuelled speculation of possible military operation in Western Sahara; Rabat secured chairmanship of UN Human Rights Council.

Media reports emerged of possible Moroccan military operation in buffer zone. Spanish newspaper La Razón 16 Jan reported movement of heavy artillery in Bir Gandouz area in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara. Local sources indicated Morocco might be preparing limited operation against Polisario Front independence movement inside UN-monitored buffer zone, while Moroccan press speculated Rabat may want to take over buffer zone, which could spark escalation with Algeria. Meanwhile, drone allegedly fired by Moroccan military 31 Dec killed three Mauritanian civilians in Guerguera area, Morocco-controlled Western Sahara. In retaliation, Mauritania early Jan reportedly increased customs duties applied to Moroccan goods entering Mauritania through Guerguera border crossing.

Rabat scored symbolic win at UN Human Rights Council. Morocco 10 Jan secured chairmanship of UN Human Rights Council despite strong opposition from Algeria and South Africa, who argued situation in Western Sahara and Rabat’s human rights record make country unfit to preside over intergovernmental body.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

In renewed effort for Western Sahara conflict resolution, U.S. administration dispatched key North Africa diplomat to conduct new round of consultations with Algeria and Morocco.

U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary for North Africa, Joshua Harris, 7 Dec met with Algerian FM Ahmed Attaf in capital Algiers, and 17 Dec met with Moroccan FM Nasser Bourita in capital Rabat. Washington’s engagement with both Algeria and Morocco is part of U.S. efforts to take more balanced stance on Western Sahara dispute in context where regional repercussions of Gaza war increase risk of escalation.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

Polisario Front independence movement launched rare rocket attacks in Morocco-controlled Western Sahara.

Four explosions overnight 28-29 Oct struck Moroccan-controlled city of Smara; Polisario claimed rocket attacks, said it targeted military infrastructures, but rockets hit residential areas, leaving one civilian dead and three others injured. New round of attacks reported 5 Nov in same area, with no casualties. Moroccan authorities opened investigation into blasts and FM Nasser Bourita 15 Nov said investigation’s outcome will inform Morocco’s response.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

UN Security Council renewed MINURSO mandate.

UN Sec Gen António Guterres’ annual report on Western Sahara 3 Oct highlighted UN envoy Staffan de Mistura’s continuing efforts to relaunch UN-led peace process. UN Security Council 30 Oct voted to extend mandate of UN mission (MINURSO) for another year until 31 Oct 2024; resolution won support of 13 of 15 Security Council members, with Russia and Mozambique abstaining, as council remains divided on Western Sahara crisis.

Middle East & North Africa

Western Sahara

UN envoy Staffan de Mistura visited Morocco-controlled Western Sahara for first time since appointment two years ago in bid to revive stalled political process on disputed territory.

UN envoy visited Morocco-controlled Western Sahara for first time. Ahead of UN Security Council meeting on Western Sahara in October, UN envoy for Western Sahara, Staffan de Mistura, 4 Sept began first visit to Morocco-controlled Western Sahara since 2021 appointment; de Mistura had renounced previous trips due to Rabat-imposed restrictions on meeting list.

U.S. redoubled engagement to advance UN-led political process. U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary for North Africa, Joshua Harris, 31 Aug-4 Sept visited Algeria and Morocco to support UN efforts to revive peace process; Harris notably met with Polisario Front independence movement leader, Brahim Ghali, in Sahrawi refugee camps of Tindouf (Algeria).

In other important developments. At UN General Assembly, heated exchange 26 Sept took place between Algerian and Moroccan representatives over Western Sahara.

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