CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
International Criminal Court (ICC) 8 March issued summonses for 6 suspects accused of organising 2007-2008 post-election violence to appear 7 April: ICC 29 March confirmed they would not be arrested. President Kibaki 22 March addressed parliament, declared 2012 general elections would proceed as planned, pressed for electoral reform in line with new constitution; said ICC cases against deputy PM and finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret North MP William Ruto would not affect election process. Govt 18 March failed to win support from UNSC members for deferral of ICC prosecution. Unconfirmed reports emerged 24 March that Kenyan forces, with Somali proxy forces, crossed into Somali territory to fight al-Shabaab militants.
Month dominated by controversy surrounding implementation of judicial reforms required by Aug 2010 constitution. Parliamentary Speaker Kenneth Marende 17 Feb rejected judicial appointments made by President Kibaki Jan, ruled lack of consultation with PM Odinga violated National Accord and Reconciliation Act; Kibaki 22 Feb withdrew list of nominations, said would consult with Odinga on attorney general nomination. AU summit 31 Jan backed Kenya’s effort to block International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutions related to 2007-2008 post-election violence. Outgoing U.S. ambassador 12 Feb said Washington would not support delays to ICC action. ICC judges 11 Feb criticised Chief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo for publicly naming 6 key suspects in Dec 2010.
Industrialisation Minister and chair of PM Odinga’s Orange Democratic Party Henry Kosgey 4 Jan resigned over corruption charges; followed attorney general’s 3 Jan decision allowing anti-corruption commission to prosecute. International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Moreno-Ocampo mid-Dec named Kosgey as 1 of 6 prominent figures responsible for organising 2006-2007 post-election violence. VP Kalonzo Musyoka early Jan undertook visits seeking support of AU members to defer ICC case; claimed South African President Zuma, Ugandan President Museveni responded positively.
International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo 15 Dec requested Court issue summons for 3 ministers and 3 other prominent figures allegedly responsible for organising serious crimes against rival supporters during 2007-2008 post-election violence. Suspects include deputy PM, finance minister Uhuru Kenyatta, suspended education minister William Ruto, former police chief Mohammed Hussein Ali and radio executive Joshua Arap Sang. MPs 22 Dec overwhelmingly voted to withdraw from Rome Statute; commentators noted vote will not halt active cases. Local opinion poll 14 Dec indicated 85% in favour of ICC prosecution. 2 killed, more than 40 injured 20 Dec by bomb targeting Nairobi-Kampala bus, blamed on Somali militant al-Shabaab.
International Criminal Court (ICC) investigations into 2007-2008 post-electoral violence continued; top security officials 23 Nov commenced giving statements. National Cohesion and Integration Commission report released mid month warned against ICC’s Dec plans to name key suspects, claim- ing it could trigger renewed violence. 3 discredited witnesses 11 Nov withdrew statements to Waki Commission and Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR), claiming KNCHR offered large sums of money, coached them to testify against key ICC suspect former minister William Ruto. KNCHR President Florence Simbiri-Jaoko 9 Nov denied allegations.
Continued focus on International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation into Dec 2007 post-election violence. Following accusations govt officials refusing to cooperate with ICC, cabinet subcommittee met 12 Oct to draft regulations ensuring ICC access. President Kibaki 19 Oct suspended higher education minister William Ruto, reportedly key suspect in ICC probe, on corruption charges. IGAD summit on South Sudan referenda moved from Nairobi to Addis Ababa; Assistant FM Richard Onyonka 27 Oct denied reports that move due to ICC pressure on Nairobi to arrest Sudanese President Bashir if he attends (Ethiopia is non-signatory of Rome Statute). FM Moses Wetangula resigned same day amid corruption probe into embassy land purchases.
Controversy lingered following Aug visit by ICC-indicted Sudanese President Bashir. FM Wetang’ula 19 Sept told ICC President of Assembly of States Parties Christian Wenaweser Kenya bound by July AU Summit decision not to arrest Bashir. Govt 3 Sept granted ICC permission to set up offices for 2007 post-election violence investigations. Justice Minister Mutula Kilonzo 18 Sept argued ICC should call off process, stated new constitution would allow for suspects to be tried in Kenyan courts; prompted angry response from lobby groups. Kenyan Human Rights Commissioner Hassan Omar said recent developments call into question govt’s commitment to ICC process.
Month saw peaceful conduct of constitutional referendum, controversy over visit of Sudanese President Bashir, and release of long-awaited census findings. Despite rising tensions and growing security concerns ahead of 4 Aug constitutional referendum, electorate voted peacefully 67% in favour of constitutional amendments. Signalling end of 20-year debate, President Kibaki 27 Aug presided over promulgation of new constitution. Attendance by ICC-indictee Sudanese President Bashir provoked widespread consternation. FM Wetangula dismissed criticism, Kofi Annan 29 Aug called on Kenya to “clarify” its position. PM Odinga said visit “misguided”, govt would apologise to ICC (see Sudan). National Assembly Speaker Kenneth Marende 13 Aug opposed move by Orange Democratic Movement to exclude MPs who voted against constitution from participating in the Implementation Oversight Committee. Govt 31 Aug released long-delayed census, results include tribal numbers observers fear could prove contentious.
Concerns over political violence persisted ahead of 4 Aug constitutional referendum. Early month intimidation of “migrants” in Rift Valley, Nyanza and Western provinces triggered pre-emptive population displacement. Govt deployed thousands of additional security forces to potential political hotspots where majority indigenous ethnic groups oppose new constitution’s proposed land redistribution reforms. 3 arrested 17 July over alleged plot to bomb scheduled Christian rally in Mombasa where Church leaders oppose new charter’s abortion clause. 2 opinion polls 23 July indicated majority support for proposed constitution. Authorities blamed al-Shabaab for 20 July attack on Kenyan border post; 1 officer reportedly killed, 1 wounded.
Heightened fears of political violence ahead of 6 Aug constitutional referendum after 6 killed, 75 wounded in 13 June bomb blasts at Nairobi rally against new draft constitution. Church groups, critical of constitution’s allowances for abortion, blamed govt for blasts. Police 17 June said they had arrested 3 in connection with blasts. 3 MPs, including Asst Roads Minister Machage, arrested 15 June for hate speech over remarks allegedly made at separate rallies against draft constitution. President Kibaki suspended Machage 17 June. During early month visit U.S. VP Biden met Kibaki and PM Odinga, encouraged govt to continue reforms, expressed support for draft constitution. Odinga recovering after late month brain operation.
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