CrisisWatch

Tracking Conflict Worldwide

CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.

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Africa

Kenya

Interim Independent Electoral Commission 14 May said referendum on new constitution approved by parliament last month to be held 4 Aug; said over 12m people registered to vote. ICC Chief Prosecutor Ocampo visited Kenya 8-12 May to begin investigations into 2008 post-election violence which left estimated 1,000 dead; said intends to prosecute up to 6 suspects. Judges 24 May ruled Islamic “Kudhi“ courts illegal; critics say such courts could be expanded under new draft constitution; Attorney General Wako announced plans to appeal decision. 7 reportedly wounded in suspected al-Shabaab attack near Somali border.

Africa

Kenya

Parliament 1 Apr approved draft constitution, key part of 2008 power-sharing deal, to be put to referendum within 90 days; draft provides greater checks on presidential powers and more regional devolution, follows numerous attempts to rewrite constitution over last 2 decades. Chief mediator Kofi Annan 1 Apr welcomed last month ICC approval of formal investigation into 2007-8 post-election violence, urged all parties to cooperate with investigators. Govt 1 Apr said would not accept any more captured Somali pirates to be tried in Kenyan courts.

Africa

Kenya

Chief mediator Kofi Annan held separate talks with President Kibaki and PM Odinga 25 March, urged parties to resolve differences, press forward with reforms, address corruption. Kibaki 9 March suspended 13 govt officials over fraudulent land purchases. ICC 31 March approved formal investigation into 2007-8 post-election violence. Prosecutor Ocampo 3 March gave court list of 20 Kenyan politicians, businessmen suspected of involvement. Odinga 13 March called for arrest of police officers involved in 10 March killing of 7 taxi drivers in Kawangware; police had earlier claimed men were members of criminal Mungiki sect. MPs end month debated amendments to draft constitution. National Commission on Human Rights 5 March said threats from govt security forces were undermining their work.

Africa

Kenya

Coalition govt plunged into new crisis amid standoff between President Kibaki and PM Odinga over 2 major recent corruption scandals. Kibaki 13 Feb suspended 8 senior officials for involvement, before Odinga 14 Feb announced agricultural and education ministers suspended pending criminal investigations: Kibaki hours later announced Odinga had failed to consult him and called move illegal. Odinga asked mediator Kofi Annan, and allies, to intervene, 16 Feb suspended participation in cabinet meetings. Anti-govt protests immediately broke out in Eldoret, before police stepped up security from 15 Feb; several thousand displaced by 2008 post-election violence marched from Rift Valley to Nairobi 17 Feb to protest govt divisions, corruption and resettlement failures. Leaders met 23 Feb, promising further talks and appealing for unity between coalition parties. AU Panel led by Annan and U.S. ambassador earlier called for swift resolution of crisis through dialogue.

Africa

Kenya

Parliamentary panel on the constitution ended 9-day deliberations 28 Jan with agreement on draft constitution terminating PM post and increasing checks and balances on presidential power. Authorities 10 Jan arrested and 22 Jan reportedly deported to Jamaica radical Muslim cleric Abdullah el-Faisal for his “terrorist history”. Sparked large protests in Nairobi 15 Jan; at least 2 killed. Govt blamed Somalis for orchestrating unrest, briefly arrested some 300 including 12 Somali MPs. 7 subsequently charged. Prompted heightened tensions with Somali govt, with latter condemning MP arrests and Nairobi accusing Somali MPs of using Kenya as safe haven. Reports several witnesses to Waki Commission on 2008 election violence received death threats, and in one case beatings, over recent weeks.

Africa

Kenya

30-day constitutional review period ended 17 Dec, with reported 1m submissions passed to review committee; chair announced submissions roughly divided on adoption of parliamentary or presidential system, favoured by Orange and PNU parties respectively. Mediator Kofi Annan during early month visit welcomed “progress” in implementation of key reforms since post-election violence but expressed strong fears over ethnic polarisation. UK announced $1.3m in donor assistance lost through embezzlement of school funds since July 2009, temporarily suspended primary education funds; early month announced travel bans for 20 Kenyans over corruption.

Africa

Kenya

ICC chief prosecutor Ocampo 5 Nov met with President Kibaki and PM Odinga in Nairobi, announced opening of formal ICC procedures to establish investigations into chief perpetrators of election violence; Kibaki and Odinga pledged to cooperate. Govt panel 17 Nov published draft constitution, reducing presidential powers and investing PM with executive authority, introducing Senate and Supreme Court, increasing decentralisation; draft to undergo 30-day public consultation before possible referendum in March. Attorney General Amos Wako revealed he was target of travel ban imposed by U.S. in Oct, threatened legal action for “defamation”.

Africa

Kenya

Controversy sparked by President Kibaki’s 31 Aug reappointment of anti-corruption commission chief Ringera, accused of failing to prosecute high-level offenders; MPs allege re-appointment violates his contract; Ringera resigned 30 Sept. Kibaki conducted major reshuffle of police senior ranks in apparent bow to international condemnation surrounding Feb publication of UN rapporteur Alston’s damning report on police violence. Govt confirmed inability to create tribunal for election violence by ICC’s 30 Sept deadline. ICC chief prosecutor Ocampo mid-month met with govt to propose 3-pronged strategy involving ICC trials for crimes against humanity, trials by special tribunals for other crimes and continuation of truth and reconciliation commission, though stressing latter should not stray beyond mandate; 30 Sept confirmed prosecution to go ahead. U.S. issued letters to 15 high-level officials threatening sanctions over obstruction of anti-corruption and judicial reforms. Worst drought in over a decade affecting most of country; govt reported water shortages fuelling clashes between pastoralist farmers in central regions.

Africa

Kenya

Govt began first national census for decade amid sharp debate over census question on ethnicity, which critics say is open to political manipulation. President Kibaki’s son Jimmy entered political stage to launch youth initiative “Stand up Kenya” in move interpreted by some observers as prelude to succession bid. Prolonged drought continues, as UN reported 50% rise in number of Kenyans requiring urgent food aid.

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