CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
After 6-month investigation, commission led by South African retired judge Johann Kriegler investigating post- election violence 17 Sept presented report concluding Dec 2007 election deeply flawed; called for changes to electoral system to avoid future unrest, including reformed Electoral Commission, greater transparency. During Kenya visit, Kofi Annan 22 Sept called on govt to implement recommendations. Some 19 killed, hundreds displaced in 12-18 Sept clashes between herders over water in drought-stricken northern districts of Mandera, Isiolo, Samburu. Govt tightened security along Somali border following early month incursions by Somali raiders. South Sudan apologised 9 Sept for Aug attacks by armed raiders in northern Kenya.
Justice Minister Karua 22 Aug announced new committee to oversee confession, surrender of illegally acquired wealth as part of proposed amnesty law. Former anti- corruption czar John Githongo, returning 19 Aug after 3 years self-exile, supported amnesty for economic crimes following full confessions. Attorney General Wako in address to commission of inquiry into post-election violence said should be no amnesty for perpetrators, as PM Odinga again called for release of 300 suspects. Controversy emerging over Kenya Human Rights Commission report on violence, with early version naming planners and perpetrators including senior officials, later version reportedly exonerating many. Leaked memo proposing high salaries to PM, vice-president’s wives provoked outrage.
Finance Minister Amos Kimunya resigned 8 July after 2 July parliamentary no-confidence vote and attorney general- led inquiry into alleged fraud in sale of govt-owned Nairobi hotel. PM Odinga, Justice Minister Karua 16 July attacked govt record on graft, as 2 more ministers faced scrutiny. Commission investigating post-election violence began hearings 9 July: intelligence chief testimony revealed pre-election warning of violence eruption. 6-month mediation talks closed 31 July; team to monitor reform implementation, as parliamentary bills tabled to restart constitutional review process. Human Rights Watch echoed claims troops committed human rights abuses in operations against Sabaot Land Defence Force (SLDF) in Mount Elgon, as Médècins sans Frontières accused army of blocking activities in region.
President Mwai Kibaki’s PNU party won 2 seats, PM Raila Odinga’s ODM 3 in 11 June by-elections; polls relatively peaceful but marred by low turnout, allegations of rigging in Embakasi. 2 ODM ministers died in plane crash 10 June threatening party mobilisation capacities and Assembly majority. Coalition pledge for new constitution within 12 months ruled out 24 June as impractical. Debate continued over ODM calls for amnesty for those arrested in post-election violence. 17 June Médècins Sans Frontières report accused army of killing, torturing civilians during operations against Mt Elgon Sabaot Land Defence Force. Reports of govt pressure tactics to evict remaining IDPs.
First formal cabinet meeting 15 May after 4-week delay due to divisions between power-sharing PNU and ODM. Fragile coalition further threatened as PNU lawmakers rejected ODM calls for amnesty for those arrested in post-election violence; cabinet decided against; President Kibaki announced members of commission of inquiry 22 May. ODM Rift Valley MPs angry at party leadership over decision. Resettlement of thousands displaced by violence began 5 May, but many unwilling to return, fearing economic, physical insecurity; in Molo (Rift Valley) 2 returnees killed 17 May. After swearing in as PM 7 May, Raila bolstered calls for talks with outlawed Mungiki sect. Police reported killing Mt Elgon Sabaot Land Defence Force commander, 12 others in 16 May ambush; 15 May National Commission on Human Rights report accused both army, militia of torture in area. 4 arrested at hundreds-strong “illegal” rally against high food prices 31 May. Unidentified gunmen killed WFP aid worker 7 May in Lokichoggio, relief hub for Southern Sudan.
Power-sharing coalition sworn in 17 Apr, breaking 6-week impasse; move followed 13 Apr naming of 40-member cabinet with opposition ODM leader Odinga as PM. Largest cabinet since independence estimated to cost one-eighth of govt revenue; Finance Minister Kimunya warned of budget cuts in key ministries to fund cabinet. Some 10 killed in 13-17 Apr Mungiki gang protests at murder of jailed leader’s wife; major transport routes in Nairobi, Naivasha paralysed. Gang abandoned 29 Apr reconciliation talks with govt after 2 top leaders shot 28 Apr. Rights groups 4 Apr accused both military and anti-govt militia, Sabaot Land Defence Forces (SLDF), of large-scale abuses in Mt Elgon area; 6 bodies found 29 Apr blamed on SLDF.
Implementation of 28 Feb power-sharing deal to resolve post-election crisis progressed, but government crackdown, violent clashes continued. 3 killed, some 300 arrested in mid- March Mount Elgon army operation against Sabaot Land Defence Forces – militia fighting government over land claims since Dec 2006. Inter-community clashes in some districts: 15 killed in Lakipia West early March. Parliamentarians 18 March unanimously approved Feb deal, but talks between supporters of President Kibaki and PM-designate Odinga hit deadlock 25 March over coalition cabinet size and composition. 7-member (3 foreign, 4 Kenyan) commission to investigate election sworn in 14 March. 19 March UN report cited excessive use of force by police, failure of state to protect citizens during crisis, stressed accountability. Rights groups accused pro-government, opposition politicians of helping finance and organise violence. 4 March agreement proposed Truth, Justice and Reconciliation Commission, also constitutional reform roadmap.
Widely welcomed power-sharing deal reached 28 Feb to resolve post-election political crisis after month of frequently stalled negotiations, yet situation remains fragile. President Kibaki to head coalition government, with opposition leader Raila Odinga in newly created executive PM position. Each party to nominate deputy PM, ministerial portfolios to be divided equally: parliament still to vote on agreement; constitutional, land and electoral reforms yet to be addressed. Deal came after chief mediator and former UNSG Kofi Annan briefly suspended stalemated talks 26 Feb; Tanzanian President and AU Chair Jakaya Kikwete joined 27 Feb to help break impasse, following month of sustained international pressure. Violence subsided with sporadic attacks in Rift Valley early Feb, but tensions remained high throughout month as supporters of both sides threatened protests amid reports of militias stockpiling weapons. Police put death toll of post-election violence at 1,500, over 300,000 displaced. U.S. imposed travel bans on 10 Kenyans from both sides suspected of financing and inciting violence; promised independent investigation into the violence.
Violence worsened in post-election standoff between supporters of President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader Raila Odinga, increasingly along ethnic lines, while mediation efforts gathered momentum. Political conflict reinforcing and fuelled by longstanding land disputes and economic disparity. Over 900 reported killed and 250,000 displaced since 27 Dec poll. Kibaki announced 17 ministers of new cabinet 8 Jan after 5 Jan offer of government of national unity rejected by opposition. Opposition candidate elected speaker of assembly 15 Jan. Human Rights Watch reported 24 Jan on opposition officials helping organise ethnic violence in Rift Valley. Mungiki sect involved in revenge killings against non-Kikuyus. Widespread opposition protests including in Kisumu, Eldoret and Nairobi resulted in deadly confrontations with police. Former UNSG Kofi Annan arrived 22 Jan to mediate dispute after AU Chair John Kufuor pushed both sides to work with African panel headed by Annan. Kibaki met Odinga for first time since Dec poll 24 Jan and negotiations under Annan mediation began 29 Jan but violence continued, particularly in Rift Valley capital Nakuru and Naivasha. Opposition Orange Democratic Movement member of parliament David Kimutai Too shot dead 31 Jan in Eldoret – led to increased unrest; followed earlier Nairobi killing of ODM parliamentarian, Mugabe Were. U.S. Assistant Sec. for African Affairs Jendayi Frazer 30 Jan said “ethnic cleansing” taking place in Rift Valley. Cyril Ramaphosa, leading ANC figure and South African businessman, due 1 Feb to join mediation efforts at request of Annan. UNSG Ban Ki-moon also to support mediation effort in Nairobi.
Credible reports of 27 December presidential election rigging led to violence in several parts of country. Incumbent, President Mwai Kibaki, declared winner 30 December amid protests and international concern about credibility of polls. Violence by youth gangs, vigilante groups followed, while police commissioner implemented shoot to kill policy against protesters, particularly in opposition strongholds in west, coastal and Nairobi slum areas; over 300 killed and 70,000 displaced in post-poll violence. Defeated presidential candidate Raila Odinga (from Luo tribe) and Kibaki (Kikuyu) called for end to killing; accused each other’s supporters of ethnic cleansing. 30, mostly Kikuyu, died in western town of Eldoret after church sanctuary set on fire by mob, 1 January. Scores of opposition sympathisers killed indiscriminately by police in Kisumu and Nairobi. Kibaki reportedly called for meeting, rejected by Odinga 1 January. AU head, Ghanaian president John Kufuor, former President of Sierra Leone and head of Commonwealth delegation Ahmed Tejan Kabbah and Archbishop Desmond Tutu called in to mediate dispute.
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