President Kenyatta brutally wrested control of ruling party, triggering exclusion of senators aligned with deputy president and deputy party leader, William Ruto, from key positions; intercommunal violence broke out in west, and Al-Shabaab kept up attacks against security forces in north east and east. Ruling Jubilee Party (JP) sec gen and Kenyatta ally, Raphael Tuju, 2 May confirmed changes to party’s governing body despite objections from allies of deputy party leader Ruto; 4 May formalised coalition agreement JP had signed in 2017 with Kenyan African National Union (KANU) party. Kenyatta 11 May presided over meeting of newly formed coalition attended by pro-Kenyatta senators but without participation of Ruto’s allies, senators present voted to replace pro-Ruto JP leadership in senate; ousted senators next day filed complaint with Constitutional Court to block their replacement. Purges of Ruto-aligned senators from key Senate positions continued until month’s end; notably, Senate deputy speaker was ousted 22 May. In border area between Narok and Nakuru counties in west, clashes between ethnic Kipsigis and Maasai reportedly left eight dead 23-27 May. In Wajir county in north east, Al-Shabaab militants 16 May raided Khrof Arar police camp, police reportedly killed three militants. Security forces night of 16-17 May launched airstrikes on Al-Shabaab hideouts along Somalia border, “heavy casualties” reported. In Garissa county in east, police 18 May repelled Al-Shabaab attack on Bura-East-Garissa Lappset road. In capital Nairobi, hundreds protested 4 May after police allegedly beat to death man violating COVID-19 curfew; hundreds 7 and 11 May demonstrated against total lockdown of their predominantly Muslim neighbourhood (Eastleigh) following spike in COVID-19 cases there as residents said measure singled out Muslim community. In Somalia’s southern Bay region, Kenyan-registered aeroplane carrying COVID-19 medical supplies 4 May crashed killing all six passengers including four Kenyans; Somalia, Kenya and Ethiopia next day launched joint investigation as media reports emerged that Ethiopian soldiers may have shot aeroplane down. International Court of Justice 22 May postponed hearing on Somalia-Kenya maritime border dispute from 8-12 June to March 2021 following Nairobi’s request for delay on account of COVID-19 pandemic.

Al-Shabaab attacks on security forces persisted in north east, police continued to brutally enforce COVID-19 restrictions and tensions increased in ruling party between factions of President Kenyatta and Deputy President Ruto. Al-Shabaab remained active: in Wajir county in north east, Al-Shabaab militants 13 April attacked police reservists on patrol in Khrof Arar leaving six reservists and four militants dead; in Kilifi and Mombasa counties in south, police 24-25 April killed two suspected Al-Shabaab militants. Tensions between Kenya and Somalia persisted in border areas in north east. Notably, in Mandera town, stray bullets and rocket 22 April struck building amid fighting between Somali federal forces and Somalia’s Jubaland state forces near Somalia’s Bula Hawa town, Gedo region. Police continued to brutally enforce COVID-19 curfew killing at least fourteen across country 27 March-30 April. In capital Nairobi, thousands 10 April attempted to force their way into premises where food was being distributed, stampede left two dead. Govt next day banned uncoordinated food distributions. Govt agency Office of the Registrar of Political Parties (ORPP) 6 April announced intention of ruling Jubilee Party to replace members of party’s governing body, National Management Committee (NMC). Deputy party leader William Ruto, also deputy president, 10 April called proposed changes to NMC “illegal and fraudulent”, denounced move as attempt by Raphael Tuju, party’s sec gen and ally of Kenyatta, to hijack party’s leadership. ORPP 17 April called halt to process of replacing NMC members after receiving 350 petitions from party members, including 146 from elected officials, and urged Tuju to use internal party dispute resolution mechanisms to resolve issue.

Kenya-Somalia tensions flared early March before leaders took steps to de-escalate, Kenyan security forces continued to battle Al-Shabaab in north and east, and pushback against heavy enforcement of COVID-19 related measures turned deadly. After Mogadishu early Feb accused Kenya of harbouring former security minister of Somalia’s Jubaland state Abdirashid Janan, tensions escalated further 2 March when clashes erupted between Somali federal forces and Janan’s troops in Jubaland’s Bula Hawa town, Gedo region, and spilled over into neighbouring Mandera town in Kenya, reportedly killing at least one civilian. Local Kenyan police arrested a dozen Somali soldiers who had crossed border. President Kenyatta 4 March accused Somalia of violating country’s sovereignty. In 5 March call initiated by Somali President Farmajo, two presidents discussed measures to ease tensions including creation of joint committees to strengthen bilateral relations. Kenyan delegation 8 March visited Mogadishu, same day Farmajo accepted Kenyatta’s invitation to Kenya-Somalia-Ethiopia summit in capital Nairobi aimed at defusing tensions; amid fears of COVID-19 outbreak, govt 13 March however postponed summit. In Garissa county in east, security forces 6 and 13 March killed at least eight Al-Shabaab militants. In turn, militants 13-14 March killed police officer between Alinjugur and Hagadera refugee camps; police vehicle also detonated roadside bomb leaving two officers dead in Welmarer area. Suspected Al-Shabaab roadside bombing 15 March left three civilians dead at Qorahindi. In Lamu county in east, armed forces 19 March raided Al-Shabaab camp in Boni forest leaving a dozen militants dead. In Mandera county in north east, Al-Shabaab 11 March ambushed several vehicles on Rhamu-Elwak road leaving at least four civilians and unknown number of soldiers dead. In Marsabit county near Ethiopian border in north, gunmen whom locals said were Ethiopian soldiers 12 March crossed into Kenya and killed five civilians in Sessi. Security forces’ heavy-handed enforcement of COVID-19 related curfew left at least three dead and dozens injured in several cities late March. Govt 31 March closed border with Ethiopia to stop spread of virus.

Al-Shabaab continued attacks in north and east, while relations with Somalia soured further. In Mandera county in north east, Al-Shabaab militants 11 Feb killed police reservist; 19 Feb attacked bus leaving four civilians dead prompting govt to order all buses in north east to travel with police escort. In Garissa county in east, Al-Shabaab targeted police: suspected militants 5 Feb shot and killed father of police reservist; 12 and 20 Feb burned down homes belonging to police reservists; 21 Feb abducted businessman; 26 Feb reportedly attacked police station, casualties reported. After former security minister of Somalia’s Jubaland state Abdirashid Janan escaped from prison in Somalia’s capital Mogadishu and reportedly arrived in Jubaland state’s Gedo region via Kenyan capital Nairobi in early Feb, Somalian federal govt forces 4 Feb deployed in Gedo region prompting Janan to flee across border to Kenya’s Mandera town. Somalia 5 Feb accused Kenya of interference for allegedly aiding Janan. Officials of Mandera county 10 Feb called on Janan to leave, citing rising tensions with Somalia. U.S. 10 Feb announced it had agreed with govt to set up Kenyan-led Joint Terrorism Task Force in Nairobi.

Al-Shabaab stepped up frequency and scale of attacks in north east and east, and President Kenyatta reshuffled his cabinet. After springing two ambushes in Wajir and Mandera counties in north east 28 and 29 Dec respectively, killing two soldiers in first incident, Al-Shabaab 2 Jan ambushed bus in Lamu county in east, separated Muslims from non-Muslims and killed four of latter. Also in Lamu county, Al-Shabaab 5 Jan launched assault on Simba military base in Manda Bay killing three Americans (one soldier and two contractors) and damaging six aircraft; first Al-Shabaab attack on base housing U.S. forces in Kenya. Hours later, three men attempted to break into UK army base in Nanyuki in central Kenya, all arrested. In Garissa county in east, Al-Shabaab 7 Jan attacked police station killing two policemen and 10 Jan killed three teachers. Court 22 Jan allowed police to detain 43 people, including 38 students, arrested day before in capital Nairobi and suspected to be linked to Al-Shabaab. President Kenyatta 14 Jan announced changes to cabinet, including switching Monica Juma and Raychelle Omamo, cabinet secretaries for foreign affairs and defence respectively.

Al-Shabaab attacks continued. Al-Shabaab militants 6 Dec attacked bus travelling from Wajir to Mandera in north east, killing at least ten including seven police officers. Authorities 6 Dec arrested Nairobi governor Mike Sonko in Voi in south on at least seven charges including abuse of power, money laundering and fraud; Sonko pleaded non-guilty 9 Dec.

Al-Shabaab attacks and banditry persisted in north, and Kenya and Somalia pledged to normalise relations. In Wajir county in north east near Somalia border, Al-Shabaab 30 Oct raided police station in Dadajabula in attempt to free two militants detained there; both detained militants killed in raid. Kenyan military convoy 12 Nov detonated improvised explosive device planted by Al-Shabaab in Wajir county. After months of strained relations between Kenya and Somalia including over maritime border dispute, President Kenyatta and Somali President Farmajo met in capital Nairobi 14 Nov and agreed to normalise relations, including by resuming issuance of travel visas on arrival and lifting of flight restrictions.

Al-Shabaab threat persisted and relations between Kenya and Somalia remained tense. Police 1 Oct killed three and arrested seven Al-Shabaab militants in Mombasa suspected of planning attacks on 20 Oct national holiday celebrations. Suspected Al-Shabaab militants 12 Oct killed eleven police officers near Liboi, Garissa county near Somalia border. Police 26 Oct arrested two suspected Al-Shabaab militants in Liboi. Al-Shabaab 29 Oct launched attack on police station in Dadajabula, Wajir county which left two militants dead. Somalia 7 Oct filed complaint against Kenya at UN aviation agency after Kenyan-chartered aeroplane flew from capital Nairobi to Somali federal member state Jubaland without touching down in Somali capital Mogadishu, violating Somalia federal govt directive; Somalia 10 Oct accused Kenya of violating its sovereignty. International Court of Justice (ICJ) 17 Oct said postponed hearing of maritime dispute between Kenya and Somalia would take place June 2020, three months earlier than Kenya requested, and that there would be no further delays.

Al-Shabaab attacks continued in north east and Kenya-Somalia tensions eased. In Mandera county in north east, suspected Al-Shabaab attack on Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) convoy in Elwak 10 Sept left at least five soldiers dead. KDF 11 Sept arrested Al-Shabaab member in Mombasa. In south, herders attacked locals in Kitui South and Kitui East constituencies 8 Sept leaving at least two dead. Following killing of taxi driver by suspected herders, driver’s colleagues 14 Sept killed two herders in Voi constituency. In centre, unidentified gunmen 23 Sept ambushed herders, killing four and stealing livestock in Baragoi, Samburu county. After months of tensions between Kenya and Somalia particularly over maritime border dispute, President Kenyatta and Somali President Farmajo 24 Sept met on sidelines of UN General Assembly in New York and agreed to normalise relations. Despite African Union’s plan that its mission in Somalia (AMISOM) pull out by 2021, Kenyatta 11 Sept said KDF serving under AMISOM would stay until Al-Shabaab was defeated. Following govt’s 3 Sept request to International Court of Justice (ICJ) to postpone by one year hearing on maritime border dispute originally set for 9-13 Sept, hearing rescheduled for 4-8 Nov. In recording released 19 Sept, Al-Shabaab leader Sheikh Ahmed Diriye criticised Kenya’s maritime border claim and said Al-Shabaab would not accept any decision made by ICJ. Kenyatta and Ugandan President Museveni 12 Sept signed agreement to help mitigate cross-border violence between herding communities.

Al-Shabaab continued attacks in north and east as tensions persisted between Kenya and Somalia over maritime border dispute and communal violence continued especially in north. Al-Shabaab militants 7 Aug carried out attack on Hulugho village, Garissa county in east destroying communication mast. In Mandera county in north east, Al-Shabaab attack on Fino village 15 Aug left two dead; suspected Al-Shabaab militants 20 Aug destroyed communication mast in Kheira Ali village and clashed with police reservists, one reservist missing. Police 30 Aug shot and killed suspected Al-Shabaab militant in Ngombeni, Kwale county. Parliament 6 Aug tabled motion to push govt to explore options to resolve maritime border dispute with Somalia and protect Kenya’s territorial integrity: proposed options included resolving issue bilaterally with Somalia, turning to dispute resolution mechanisms under aegis of African Union (AU) or regional blocs Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) and East African Community (EAC) or, as last resort, deploying security forces to border. Somalia 21 Aug rejected AU’s offer to mediate between it and Kenya and expressed confidence in International Court of Justice hearing set for 9-13 Sept. Clashes between herders and farmers 12 Aug left two dead in Mariakani, Kilifi county in east. Clashes between herders in southern Ethiopia 14 Aug left at least two Ethiopians and one Kenyan dead. In north, suspected ethnic Borana 25 Aug attacked ethnic Gabra in Forole and Sabareh, Marsabit county near Ethiopian border leaving at least twelve dead. AU 21 Aug endorsed Kenya for non-permanent seat on UN Security Council for 2021-2022.