CrisisWatch is our global conflict tracker, an early warning tool designed to help prevent deadly violence. It keeps decision-makers up-to-date with developments in over 70 conflicts and crises every month, identifying trends and alerting them to risks of escalation and opportunities to advance peace. In addition, CrisisWatch monitors over 50 situations (“standby monitoring”) to offer timely information if developments indicate a drift toward violence or instability. Entries dating back to 2003 provide easily searchable conflict histories.
In Rift Valley, longstanding tensions between ethnic Maasai and Kipsigis (sub-group of Kalenjin) over land ownership erupted into clashes early Sept in at least four villages in Narok county and later in Njoro area of neighbouring Nakuru county, hundreds of police deployed to quell violence; almost three weeks of fighting left at least ten people dead. Govt 25 Sept imposed dusk-to-dawn curfew in Olposimoru, Narok North constituency. Military killed ten Al-Shabaab fighters in Pandanguo, Lamu county 25 Sept.
Al-Shabaab continued attacks on security forces and civilians in south east near coast and in north east. In coastal Lamu county, five soldiers killed 8 Aug when their vehicle triggered explosive device claimed by Al-Shabaab between Majengo and Bodhei areas; five more soldiers killed when their vehicle hit explosive device suspected to have been laid by Al-Shabaab on Sankuri-Kiunga road 29 Aug. In north east, three people killed when their vehicle detonated explosive device suspected to have been laid by Al-Shabaab in Wantey area, near Elwak in Mandera county 13 Aug; large number of militants 20 Aug attacked police station and communications mast in Ijara, south of Garissa county, repelled by security forces.
As dry season sets in, rate of armed conflicts over natural resources, especially pasture and water, picked up in north. Armed ethnic Turkana herders clashed with security forces in Isiolo county; Turkana herders exchanged fire with police trying to recover stolen livestock near Isiolo-Marsabit road 14 July. Local residents in Turkana county in north blockaded camp of oil company Tullow Oil from 27 June demanding deployment of more security forces in area to combat cattle poaching and citing grievances over jobs, blockade interrupted Tullow’s trucking of oil to coast. Al-Shabaab militants 10 July attacked police station at Hamey, Garissa county near border with Somalia, reportedly injuring four officers, and damaged nearby telecommunications mast. Security forces continued operations against Al-Shabaab in Boni forest, Lamu county. Al-Shabaab ambushed police vehicle on Lamu-Mombasa road in Milihoi, Lamu county 26 July, killing one police officer, another three went missing.
Al-Shabaab maintained insurgency in east and north east. Six officers of special police unit General Service Unit killed 8 June when their vehicle detonated land mine at Liboi, Garissa county in east next to Somalia border. Eight security personnel killed 18 June when their vehicle hit explosive device in Bojigaras area of Wajir county in north east.
President Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga continued to work toward reconciliation. Odinga 1 May lifted boycott by his National Super Alliance (NASA) of four companies it said were close to members of ruling Jubilee Party. In state of nation address 2 May, Kenyatta said political leaders must apologise for divisions they created during election period and emphasised need for national unity. Fourteen-member committee formed by Kenyatta and Odinga to drive reconciliation talks held its first meeting 10 May, no results made public. Kenyatta 18 May said his administration would not pursue referendum on constitutional changes that would introduce new executive positions, as advocated by Odinga and allies. Suspected Al-Shabaab militants 3 May attacked quarry in Mandera in north east, killing four.
Political negotiations and reconciliation talks between govt and opposition continued following meeting between President Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga in March; two leaders 29 April named fourteen-member team to drive talks. Deputy President Ruto 14 April criticised proposals to amend constitution to create more executive positions to accommodate opposition, describing them as attempt by politicians to secure more top jobs. Standoff between executive and judiciary continued; interior minister 3 April accused judiciary of anti-govt bias and “judicial overreach”; Chief Justice David Maraga 14 April said judiciary was struggling to fulfil its mandate due to budget cuts. Electoral commission 10 April said it had sent its chief executive on compulsory leave for three months pending audit; three of body’s six commissioners resigned 16 April, citing “dysfunctional” management, while maintaining disputed Aug presidential vote was conducted properly.
President Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga held surprise talks 9 March – their first meeting since disputed 2017 elections – creating opportunity in April to begin dialogue and reduce tensions. They pledged to work together to unify country, including by creating joint office to tackle political divisions. During visit to Nairobi same day, then U.S. Sec State Rex Tillerson said govt should not threaten independence of media or courts. Immigration officials at Nairobi airport 26 March denied entry to prominent opposition lawyer Miguna Miguna whom govt 6 Feb deported for being “prohibited immigrant”. High court 27 March ordered authorities to allow Miguna to leave airport and enter country. After authorities failed to release Miguna, high court 28 March found interior minister and police inspector general in contempt of court, and next day fined them and immigration minister for ignoring ruling. Miguna 29 March said officials had put him on plane to Dubai late 28 March after beating and drugging him. Al-Shabaab attacks continued near border with Somalia; 2 March attack on police camps in Mandera county in north east left four police officers and reservists dead. Clan-related violence 27 March left six people dead in Banisa, Mandera county, following killing of two Garre clansmen in Ethiopia previous day.
Govt continued crackdown on opposition after opposition leader Raila Odinga staged his own swearing-in ceremony as “people’s president” 30 Jan. High Court 1 Feb overturned govt’s shutdown of some private television channels that covered ceremony; two resumed broadcasting 5 Feb, two others 8 Feb. Police 2 Feb arrested opposition lawyer Miguna Miguna, who played prominent role in ceremony; authorities 6 Feb charged Miguna with treason, sparking clashes between opposition supporters and police in Kisumu in west, one bystander killed. Same day High Court ordered govt to stop proceedings against Miguna until authorities had brought him to Nairobi court; govt same day deported Miguna, describing him as “prohibited immigrant” due to his dual Kenyan-Canadian citizenship. High Court 15 Feb revoked Miguna’s deportation, declaring it illegal; decision on whether Miguna can return expected in March. Authorities 3 Feb arrested opposition MP George Aladwa. Govt prevented two prominent Odinga supporters, senator and financier, from leaving country 19 Feb; allowed them to travel next day. Human Rights Watch 25 Feb reported that police and armed gangs killed at least 37 people Sept-Nov 2017 around 26 Oct presidential election rerun.
President Kenyatta 26 Jan announced new cabinet; appointment of ruling party supporters to all key posts closed door to power sharing with opposition, one option touted to end confrontation between Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga. Odinga 30 Jan staged swearing-in ceremony in which he was declared “people’s president”, despite previously dropping plan due to reported govt threats that police would disrupt ceremony and arrest him; ceremony took place largely peacefully, tens of thousands attended and police stayed away. Other opposition leaders Kalonzo Musyoka, Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula did not attend. Govt took off air some television and radio stations intending to cover ceremony and others after they had done so. Interior minister 31 Jan described ceremony as “attempt to subvert or overthrow” govt and threatened arrests, including against journalists. Former VP and senior opposition figure Kalonzo Musyoka 31 Jan claimed unidentified assailants carried out failed “assassination attempt” against him at his home in Nairobi that day. Police 31 Jan arrested opposition MP who administered Odinga’s “swearing-in”. EU observer mission released its final report on electoral process in Brussels 10 Jan, claiming that govt refused to host mission in Nairobi and that govt had requested delay in publication; report concluded that election commission had performed better than in initial Aug poll, but said lack of public trust in institutions affected credibility of process and called for greater accountability; foreign ministry summoned EU ambassador to express displeasure with report. Al-Shabaab increased attacks mostly on security forces and mostly near border with Somalia and at coast: insurgents attacked police patrol in Mandera county in north 2 Jan killing five policemen; 100 militants 14 Jan temporarily took over Ishakani village, East Lamu to preach to inhabitants and warn them not to cooperate with security forces.
President Kenyatta, reneging on pledge to remain open to dialogue with opposition on all issues, 12 Dec ruled out electoral reform and talks with opposition. Opposition leader Raila Odinga under international pressure dropped plan to be sworn in as president during independence day celebrations 12 Dec; govt reportedly said police would disrupt swearing-in ceremony and possibly arrest Odinga. Odinga 24 Dec said he would hold swearing-in ceremony in “early” 2018. Police 3 Dec arrested and detained overnight opposition strategist David Ndii. In Mombasa, leaders from former Coast province 17 Dec said they would swear in Odinga as “people’s president” and press ahead with plans to secede. Human Rights Watch reports released 14 Dec document widespread sexual violence around elections 8 Aug and 26 Oct, mostly by security forces; Kenyan National Commission on Human Rights 20 Dec published report documenting 92 deaths and 86 cases of sexual violence over election period. Suspected Al-Shabaab militants 30 Dec attacked two police camps in Garissa county near border with Somalia; no casualties reported.
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