Govt faced mounting international pressure to address serious crimes in Tigray regional state; violence erupted in centre and clashes with Sudan continued in disputed area. Amid ongoing fighting between Tigray’s and federal govt’s forces in Tigray regional state in north, UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet 4 March said multiple conflict parties had committed grave violations that could amount to “war crimes and crimes against humanity” in Tigray since Nov 2020. PM Abiy 9 March said govt had taken “concrete steps to address alleged human rights abuses”. U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken next day denounced “acts of ethnic cleansing” in Tigray, which govt 13 March “vehemently” denied. Abiy 23 March admitted for first time that Eritrea had deployed troops in Tigray since conflict broke out; 26 March said Eritrea had agreed to withdraw its forces. Govt-appointed Ethiopian Human Rights Commission and UN human rights office 25 March said they would jointly investigate alleged abuses by all parties. In Oromia region in centre, suspected armed group Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) insurgents 6-9 March reportedly killed at least 42 ethnic Amhara civilians in Horo Guduru Welega area and 30 March reportedly killed another 30 civilians in West Welega area; OLA later denied responsibility. Opposition party Oromo Liberation Front 8 March said it would not participate in 5 June general elections, citing continued harassment and detention of its members by federal and Oromia regional state authorities. Army 1-2 March reportedly clashed with Sudanese forces near Barkhat settlement, last area still under Ethiopia’s control in disputed Al-Fashqa border zone; death toll unknown. Sudan 17 March demanded all Ethiopian forces withdraw from “Sudanese territory”, tied negotiations over land dispute to Addis Ababa’s recognition of Sudan’s sovereignty over it. UN humanitarian office 22 March said Eritrean forces had been deployed alongside Ethiopian troops and ethnic Amhara militias near Barkhat. Govt remained at loggerheads with Sudan and Egypt over Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Blue Nile river (see Nile Waters).

Deadly clashes in disputed border areas with Sudan continued, and fighting persisted in Tigray regional state amid serious humanitarian crisis. As number of troops grew on both sides, Ethiopian forces along with local militias and Sudanese army throughout month clashed in Al-Fashqa and nearby Al-Qureisha border regions, killing several Sudanese security personnel and civilians, and leaving unknown number of Ethiopian forces dead. Khartoum 14 Feb accused Ethiopian forces of entering Sudan, condemned “aggression” and “unacceptable escalation”. Mauritanian media 17 Feb reported AU had tasked AU Special Envoy to Sudan Mohamed el Hacen Lebatt with mediating border dispute. In Tigray regional state in north, fighting continued between Tigray’s and federal govt’s forces. EU 8 Feb called for withdrawal of Eritrean forces from Tigray, said they were “fuelling the conflict” and “exacerbating ethnic violence”; Eritrea next day rejected accusation(see Eritrea). U.S. Sec State Antony Blinken 27 Feb called for “immediate withdrawal” of Eritrean and Amhara regional forces from Tigray and cessation of hostilities. NGO Human Rights Watch 11 Feb accused Ethiopian federal forces of having carried out “apparently indiscriminate shelling of urban areas” in Tigray in Nov. Security forces mid-Feb violently suppressed anti-govt protests in regional capital Mekelle and other towns, death toll unclear. UN 4 Feb said humanitarian situation in Tigray “extremely alarming” and “continues to deteriorate rapidly”, 19 Feb said Tigray faced “very critical malnutrition situation”. In Oromia region in centre, demonstrators early to mid-Feb took to streets, demanding release of prominent Oromo politicians–detained since June–after they launched hunger strike late Jan; security forces early Jan reportedly shot and killed protester in Borana zone. Amid accusations that United Arab Emirates (UAE) contributed to Ethiopia’s drone campaign in Tigray, authorities 3 Feb said they had arrested 15 individuals for allegedly planning to attack UAE embassy in Ethiopia. Amid stalled AU-led negotiations between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt over filling and operation of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Blue Nile River, Egypt 24 Feb endorsed Sudan’s proposal for quadripartite mediation by AU, EU, U.S. and UN.

Further skirmishes with Sudan broke out in disputed border areas, fighting continued in Tigray regional state and intercommunal violence persisted in Benishangul-Gumuz region. After Sudan’s military in Dec reclaimed large swathes of territory in disputed Al-Fashqa area, Ethiopian and Sudanese forces 4 and 10 Jan clashed in Al-Fashqa and nearby Al-Qureisha border regions. Addis Ababa 12 Jan accused Sudan of pushing further into its territory and warned it was running out of patience. Ethiopian militia mid-Jan reportedly killed around a dozen Sudanese farmers in Al-Qureisha and Al-Fashqa. Khartoum 13 Jan said Ethiopian military aircraft had entered its airspace, calling it “a dangerous escalation”; next day closed airspace over Al-Qadarif state until April. Ethiopia 17 Jan released eight Sudanese soldiers captured during Dec border clashes. Sudan’s Sovereign Council head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan 20 Jan said “Sudan does not want to go to war with Ethiopia”, but warned that it “will not abandon an inch of its territory”. In Tigray region in north, fighting continued between Tigray’s and federal govt’s forces. Security forces throughout month killed or captured dozens of senior Tigrayan leaders; notably, unidentified security forces 13 Jan killed former Ethiopian FM Seyoum Mesfin. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell 15 Jan stated as fact that Eritrean forces are involved in military operations in Tigray alongside Ethiopian federal forces (see Eritrea). Amid restricted humanitarian access to Tigray, Tigray official 21 Jan said 4.5mn in need of emergency food assistance; UN 26 Jan said it was receiving reports of “rising hunger and malnutrition”. Meanwhile, in Benishangul-Gumuz region in north west, ethnic Gumuz militia 12 Jan reportedly killed at least 80 ethnic Amhara, Agew and Shinasha civilians in Metekel zone. In Southern Nations region in south, unidentified assailants 9-11 Jan killed at least nine civilians in Konso zone. In Afar region in north east, clashes between security forces and Issa militia 23 Jan reportedly left at least 30 police officers killed and 40 more injured in Adaytu village. Talks between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam early Jan resumed but failed to make progress.

Violence erupted in disputed border area with Sudan, deadly fighting continued in Tigray region and intercommunal clashes killed hundreds in Benishangul-Gumuz region. Sudanese military early Dec reclaimed territory in disputed Al-Fashqa area on border between Ethiopia’s Amhara region and Sudan’s Al-Qadarif state. Ethiopian gunmen 15 Dec killed at least four Sudanese troops in Al-Fashqa. Border demarcation talks between Sudan and Ethiopia 22-23 Dec failed to yield agreement. In following days, Sudan allegedly made further territorial gains in Al-Fashqa and Al-Quraisha border regions, 31 Dec said its forces had taken control over all border territory it accuses Ethiopia of encroaching upon. Ethiopia 29 Dec warned Sudan of counter-offensive if it “does not stop expanding into Ethiopian territories”. Despite PM Abiy declaring victory in Nov, fighting continued between Tigray’s and federal govt’s forces. Tigray President and former ruling party Tigray People’s Liberation Front leader Debretsion Gebremichael 4 Dec again accused neighbouring Eritrea of supporting federal govt’s military offensive in Tigray (see Eritrea). UN human rights chief Michelle Bachelet 9 Dec expressed concern over “ethnic profiling” and “hate speech” against ethnic Tigrayans in rest of country. Tigray’s transitional govt – established by federal parliament’s upper house in Nov – took office 13 Dec. In Benishangul-Gumuz region in north west, suspected members of armed group Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) 8 Dec killed at least ten ethnic Amhara civilians in Metekel zone; attack by suspected ethnic Gumuz gunmen 23 Dec killed at least 207 mostly Amhara and Shinasha civilians and displaced more than 40,000 in Metekel. In Oromia region in centre, suspected OLA combatants mid-Dec killed at least 19 mostly ethnic Amhara civilians in Horo Guduru Wellega and West Wellega zones; local authorities 16 Dec claimed security operations had killed some 400 OLA combatants in recent weeks. Clashes in border area between Afar and Somali regions late Dec reportedly left several dozen dead. Electoral board 25 Dec scheduled legislative and regional elections for 5 June 2021; said it would announce poll date for Tigray later on.

Violent conflict erupted in Tigray region, killing thousands and displacing many more; despite capture by federal forces of Tigray’s capital late month, regional leaders vowed to continue fighting. Following months of tensions between federal and Tigray’s govts, PM Abiy 4 Nov ordered military offensive against Tigray after alleged attack same day by regional forces on federal military in Tigray, which reportedly killed dozens. Federal troops, supported by Amhara regional forces, subsequently launched ground and air operations against Tigray forces; fighting reportedly killed thousands and prompted tens of thousands to flee to neighbouring Sudan. Both sides reportedly committed atrocities including 9-10 Nov massacre by Tigrayan militia of at least 600 civilians in Mai-Kadra town in West Tigray Zone. Tigray 13 Nov fired rockets at Bahir Dar and Gondar airports in neighbouring Amhara region; and 14 Nov and reportedly 27-28 Nov at Eritrea’s capital Asmara, after accusing neighbouring country of supporting federal forces’ offensive (see Eritrea). As federal forces advanced on Tigray’s capital Mekelle, Abiy 22 Nov issued 72-hour ultimatum demanding Tigray regional forces lay down arms; 26 Nov announced he had ordered assault on Mekelle after Tigrayan leadership refused to surrender; 28 Nov said federal forces had taken control of Mekelle and announced end of military operations in Tigray. Tigray President and ruling party Tigray People’s Liberation Front leader Debretsion Gebremichael immediately said its forces would continue “to fight these invaders to the last”. Amid conflict, Abiy 8 Nov replaced army chief, head of intelligence and FM; Ethiopian human rights commission 30 Nov said it received complaints throughout month about ethnic profiling and harassment of ethnic Tigrayans, notably within civil service and federal army. In Oromia region in centre, suspected members of armed group Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) 1 Nov reportedly killed tens of ethnic Amhara in Western Wollega zone; following attack, Oromia security forces launched operations reportedly killing over 150 OLA fighters. In Benishangul-Gumuz region in north west, unidentified gunmen 14 Nov killed at least 34 civilians in Metekel Zone. In Southern Nations region in south, unidentified assailants mid-Nov reportedly killed dozens. Tripartite negotiations on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam remained stalled (see Nile Waters).

Feud between federal govt and Tigray region reached breaking point, threatening to spark violent escalation in Nov; intercommunal violence left dozens dead in several regions. After Tigray held regional elections in Sept in defiance of federal govt’s COVID-19-related postponement of polls, Tigray’s ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) 5 Oct recalled its representatives from federal govt and parliament, considering their mandates had expired. Tensions further increased after federal parliament’s upper house 6-7 Oct directed federal govt to cut ties with Tigray’s leadership and approved redirection of federal funding away from Tigray’s executive. Peace Minister Muferiat Kamil 9 Oct called on both sides to engage in dialogue and de-escalate tensions; TPLF 24 Oct however said Addis Ababa “is driving the Tigray region away from the federation” and that withholding of funds, due 4 Nov, would be “tantamount to a declaration of war”. In Benishangul-Gumuz region in north west, unidentified militia 6-7 Oct killed 14 civilians, including some ethnic Amhara, in Metekel zone; security forces reportedly killed 14 assailants. Also in Metekel, at least a dozen ethnic Amhara and Agew civilians 11 Oct were shot dead in unclear circumstances. In Southern Nations region in south, unidentified gunmen 18-21 Oct killed at least 31 civilians, reportedly all ethnic Amhara, prompting reported displacement of thousands of Amhara in Bench Sheko zone. In border area between Afar and Somali regions, clashes between ethnic Afar and Somalis late Oct left at least 27 dead. In Oromia region, regional police chief 1 Oct said more than 500 people had been arrested on suspicion of plotting violence during Oromo festival in late Sept-early Oct; security forces 11 Oct opened fire on protesters demanding release of political prisoners, leaving one dead in Bale zone; unidentified assailants mid-Oct killed two security personnel in East Wellega zone. Federal parliament’s upper house 6 Oct approved request by five zonal administrations and one district of Southern Nations region for referendum on creation of regional state. Tripartite meeting on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam took place 27 Oct (see Nile Waters).

Tigray held regional elections in defiance of federal govt, authorities continued to crack down on opposition, and intercommunal violence left over 100 dead in Benishangul-Gumuz region. In run-up to Tigray’s regional elections, Tigray govt 3 Sept said any move to disrupt polls, held despite federal govt’s decision to postpone elections due to COVID-19, would amount to “declaration of war”; federal parliament’s upper house 5 Sept declared elections unconstitutional and said it would not recognise outcome but PM Abiy 8 Sept ruled out military intervention or punitive budget cuts. Ruling-Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) 9 Sept won 189 out of 190 seats in regional parliament. After health minister 18 Sept told federal parliament’s lower house that general elections could be held nationwide if precautions against COVID-19 are in place, lawmakers 22 Sept voted to hold polls in 2021. TPLF late Sept said federal govt’s stay in power beyond 5 Oct (constitutional term limit for both houses of parliament) would be “constitutionally illegal” and that Tigray would not comply with any federal laws enacted after that date. In wake of late June-early July violent unrest in Oromia region, federal and Oromia regional prosecutors throughout month filed criminal charges against several opposition leaders including Jawar Mohammed and Eskinder Nega for their alleged role in instigating violence. In Benishangul-Gumuz region in north west, ethnic Gumuz militia early-to-mid Sept reportedly killed up to 140 people, mostly Amhara civilians, in several localities in Metekel zone; violence displaced more than 25,000. Also in Metekel, unidentified gunmen 25 Sept killed at least 15 civilians in Dangur district. In Somali region in east, police 3 Sept opened fire on demonstrators protesting against alleged police mistreatment of their community in Afdher zone, leaving at least nine dead and 39 injured. In Afar region in east, security forces 16 Sept shot and killed three youths in Abala town for allegedly violating COVID-19 restrictions. U.S. early Sept announced temporary suspension of some aid to Ethiopia citing recent completion of first phase of filling of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam without agreement with Sudan and Egypt and “lack of progress” in tripartite talks (see Nile Waters).

Security forces violently suppressed protests in Oromia region and Southern Nations region, while tensions persisted between federal govt and Tigray region over Tigray’s planned elections. In Oromia region in centre, unrest sparked by June killing of popular Oromo musician continued. Demonstrations 17 Aug broke out against detention since late June of two prominent Oromo opposition leaders; security forces violently suppressed protests reportedly killing at least 40 people 17-24 Aug. Amid major cracks in Oromia’s ruling establishment, Oromia branch of ruling Prosperity Party 9 Aug suspended party membership of Defence Minister Lemma Megersa and two other senior officials; as part of cabinet shake-up, PM Abiy 18 Aug replaced Lemma as defence minister. In Southern Nations region, protests 9 Aug erupted in Wolayta zone’s capital Sodo following same day arrest of local officials and activists seeking regional statehood for Wolayta ethnic group; security forces 9-12 Aug killed at least 21 protesters in Sodo and other towns in Wolayta; Southern Nations branch of Prosperity Party 28 Aug replaced Wolayta zone administrator. Also in Southern Nations, clashes between ethnic Konso and Ale late Aug reportedly left at least a dozen dead. In Somali region in east, protests 17 Aug broke out in Degehabur city following police killing of youth previous week; police reportedly arrested “scores” of protesters. Political tensions persisted as Tigray region pressed ahead with preparations for regional elections scheduled for 9 Sept in defiance of federal govt’s COVID-19-related postponement of polls. Despite PM Abiy ruling out military intervention in July, Tigray in apparent show of force early Aug staged several military parades in regional capital Mekelle and other towns. Speaker of federal parliament’s upper house early Aug said govt will be forced to take “necessary and proportional measures” if Tigray’s ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front fails to halt electoral preparations. Tigray authorities reportedly detained throughout month at least 300 ethnic Amhara who refused to register for polls, and thousands of Amhara reportedly fled region. Talks continued between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (see Nile Waters).

Street violence early July left over 200 dead in capital Addis Ababa and Oromia region, while relations between federal govt and Tigray region reached critical point. Late June killing of popular Oromo singer and activist Hachalu Hundessa sparked wave of deadly protests in Addis Ababa and Oromia: heavy-handed suppression by security forces and Oromo youth targeting of non-Oromo ethnic minorities 30 June-2 July left at least 239 dead; amid protests, govt shut down internet, deployed military in Addis Ababa and arrested at least 5,000 including prominent opposition leaders Jawar Mohammed and Eskinder Nega. PM Abiy 3 July described Hundessa’s killing and subsequent violence as “coordinated attempts” to destabilise Ethiopia. Attorney general 10 July announced arrest of two suspects who reportedly confessed to killing Hundessa on orders of armed group Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) with goal of inciting ethnic tensions and overthrowing govt; OLA 15 July denied allegation. Relations between federal govt and Tigray region reached critical point after Tigray region in June vowed to organise regional elections in 2020 despite federal govt decision to postpone them due to COVID-19: in Addis Ababa, authorities 9 July arrested two senior officials of Tigray’s ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front on allegations of involvement in late June-early July unrest; amid reports of large-scale recruitment of security forces by Tigray authorities, Tigray President 20 July reportedly said “Tigray region will be a burial ground” for those attempting to obstruct election. Abiy 29 July said elections in Tigray were unconstitutional but ruled out military intervention. Amhara region’s president 23 July announced Amhara’s intention to regain lands “illegally taken” by neighbouring Tigray and said 85 insurgents entered Amhara from Tigray. In Southern Nations region in south, late July clashes between ethnic Konso and Ale reportedly killed at least thirteen and forced thousands to flee. In Benishangul-Gumuz region in north west, gunmen 27 July killed at least fourteen ethnic Amhara. Abiy 21 July said Ethiopia had achieved its first-year target for filling reservoir of Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Blue Nile River thanks to heavy rainy season (see Nile Waters).

Killing of popular ethnic Oromo singer sparked deadly unrest in capital Addis Ababa and Oromia region while tensions heightened between federal govt and Tigray region over electoral calendar. In Addis Ababa, unidentified gunmen 29 June shot and killed popular Oromo singer and activist Hachalu Hundessa; large-scale protests erupted next day in Addis Ababa and across Oromia region, clashes between security forces and protesters left at least 52 dead on both sides; amid unrest, authorities 30 June shut down internet and arrested Jawar Mohammed, prominent critic of PM Abiy and member of opposition party Oromo Federalist Congress. Senior official of Tigray’s ruling Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) party Keria Ibrahim 8 June resigned from her post as speaker of federal parliament’s upper house, citing opposition to postponement of Aug general elections due to COVID-19. Upper house 10 June voted to extend federal and regional parliaments’ terms – set to expire in Oct – until elections take place; despite term extension, Tigray regional parliament 12 June voted to go ahead with regional elections. Electoral board 24 June said Tigray has no legal right to hold elections. In Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ region in south, regional parliament 18 June transferred power to new Sidama regional state following 2019 referendum for ethnic Sidama statehood. In Benishangul-Gumuz region in north west, clashes between ethnic Amhara and Berta youth early June reportedly left at least four dead in Bambasi district. Fighting between police and local militias 4 June killed at least three in Asosa zone. In Oromia region in centre, armed opposition faction Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) 3 June shot and killed police officer in East Wellega zone; 48 suspected OLA members arrested in area over next few days. Talks between Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam resumed 9 June but broke down 17 June due to disagreements over drought mitigation, arbitration mechanism and legal status of final agreement; parties 26 June agreed African Union would facilitate another two weeks of talks (see Nile Waters).